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Feb 24th threat. Signal has been there for a while now


Typhoon Tip

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It's really the last thing coastal residents need. The damage being done is exponential as more of the buffer is removed in terms of dunes and sand. Another really bad one could really change the beachfront landscape. Ptown became an island briefly during the first blizzard. One more protracted ene or ne windstorm could change things permanently.

Yeah there's been quite a bit of footage on the news of coastal areas eroding away more and more after every storm.

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still plenty of time to let this one unfold as i gaze onto the 2-3 freshly fallen inches out side  

 

i bet a weenie hill here and there could make a nice difference in emass in this event, like the one in framingham that's 600' (brimstone lane) and those areas on route 290 like northboro /shrewsbury/ that are aoa 500 .......also a few weenie hills in westborough.

 

this one is dicey around 128.............dynamics would flip us......but still ratio's could be low i would think.  accums should rocket up toward WILL. (unless this trends colder)  

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Euro had 2-3 inches of qpf again?

Yeah it had about 2" from BOS to nrn RI and near 3" over PYM.

But I really can't stress this enough. We still have a lot of time left to figure out details. I doubt this track is set in stone 84+ hrs out. Some people who are super excited may have to temper expectations a bit.

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Yeah it had about 2" from BOS to nrn RI and near 3" over PYM.

But I really can't stress this enough. We still have a lot of time left to figure out details. I doubt this track is set in stone 84+ hrs out. Some people who are super excited may have to temper expectations a bit.

 

This can't be emphasized enough

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Are we that afraid of every model failing? at hour 84, what has become of the state of Meterology?

 

 

I dont think the worry is not getting a storm, but a small shift in thermal profiles could sour the storm pretty easily. Esp from your area to BOS.

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Nam will likely deliver.

 

I think the NAM is a bit too far inland for some of you guys at 84... yes its la-la land... but sitting over Cape May its going to have to take a NE turn not to taint some of you guys at least at the beginning -- though the H is in great position for you guys

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It could come close, but this model was about 150+ miles off 36 hrs prior to The blizzard.

 

 

Remember what it was doing 84 hours out? It had a weak wave going about 400 miles south of SNE. Then when it got closer, it brought the low over Phil which was awful.

 

 

It's overall just a terrible model to use until we get inside of 24 hours, then it can start to give some clues. I'd much rather have the SREFs as a tool...they performed fairly well in the blizzard after having a terrible first half of winter. But at this point, global models are the way to go until we get closer.

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Remember what it was doing 84 hours out? It had a weak wave going about 400 miles south of SNE. Then when it got closer, it brought the low over Phil which was awful.

 

 

It's overall just a terrible model to use until we get inside of 24 hours, then it can start to give some clues. I'd much rather have the SREFs as a tool...they performed fairly well in the blizzard after having a terrible first half of winter. But at this point, global models are the way to go until we get closer.

 

Yep, agree.

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