SlantStickers Anonymous Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It's really the last thing coastal residents need. The damage being done is exponential as more of the buffer is removed in terms of dunes and sand. Another really bad one could really change the beachfront landscape. Ptown became an island briefly during the first blizzard. One more protracted ene or ne windstorm could change things permanently. Yeah there's been quite a bit of footage on the news of coastal areas eroding away more and more after every storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 still plenty of time to let this one unfold as i gaze onto the 2-3 freshly fallen inches out side i bet a weenie hill here and there could make a nice difference in emass in this event, like the one in framingham that's 600' (brimstone lane) and those areas on route 290 like northboro /shrewsbury/ that are aoa 500 .......also a few weenie hills in westborough. this one is dicey around 128.............dynamics would flip us......but still ratio's could be low i would think. accums should rocket up toward WILL. (unless this trends colder) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Euro had 2-3 inches of qpf again? Yeah it had about 2" from BOS to nrn RI and near 3" over PYM. But I really can't stress this enough. We still have a lot of time left to figure out details. I doubt this track is set in stone 84+ hrs out. Some people who are super excited may have to temper expectations a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yeah it had about 2" from BOS to nrn RI and near 3" over PYM. But I really can't stress this enough. We still have a lot of time left to figure out details. I doubt this track is set in stone 84+ hrs out. Some people who are super excited may have to temper expectations a bit. Ginx? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yeah it had about 2" from BOS to nrn RI and near 3" over PYM. But I really can't stress this enough. We still have a lot of time left to figure out details. I doubt this track is set in stone 84+ hrs out. Some people who are super excited may have to temper expectations a bit. This can't be emphasized enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Ginx? NB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 NB.North Branford? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 NB. totally, temper what, just commenting on what the models show and if you can not get wood on these runs IDK what to tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 totally, temper what, just commenting on what the models show and if you can not get wood on these runs IDK what to tell you. Plenty of times an outie has become an innie within 3-4 days. Yes they are fun to look at, but for my purposes....I know what can happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I don't think I could deal with smoking cirrus on this one too... Don't start worrying about that yet since that is not really being modeled right now. This could just as easily cut inside the BM and crush us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Haven't had time to read back. With respect to climo within models, will they really over do the BL in late feb? If 850-925 is near 0C I'd think guidance would have a tough time resolving dynamical cooling, especially across the interior. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Model ensemble support is pretty tightly clustered for being 4 days out...OP models are fairly well clustered and so are their ensembles....doesn't mean we are guaranteed this track, but its a good sign and increases confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Plenty of times an outie has become an innie within 3-4 days. Yes they are fun to look at, but for my purposes....I know what can happen. Are we that afraid of every model failing? at hour 84, what has become of the state of Meterology? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ROOSTA Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Do I see a Rex Block developing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 What does NB mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Of course not Steve. That's not what I am saying. For people that are riding the edge with temps or precip, 30-40 miles means a lot and that is well within the margin of error this far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 What does NB mean? Not Boring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Are we that afraid of every model failing? at hour 84, what has become of the state of Meterology? I dont think the worry is not getting a storm, but a small shift in thermal profiles could sour the storm pretty easily. Esp from your area to BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Something tells me that when we get closer, the NAM is going to go stupid with QPF. It may be wall Of shame worthy. That and other model images will be hung up on the wall when I build my weenie bar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Nam will likely deliver. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Nam will likely deliver. I think the NAM is a bit too far inland for some of you guys at 84... yes its la-la land... but sitting over Cape May its going to have to take a NE turn not to taint some of you guys at least at the beginning -- though the H is in great position for you guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This may have a SWFE look at first. MLK 2010 FTW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I think the NAM is a bit too far inland for some of you guys at 84... yes its la-la land... but sitting over Cape May its going to have to take a NE turn not to taint some of you guys at least at the beginning NAM being the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Nam will likely deliver. Pretty amped, prob ptype issues for most before it crashes back SE...not that the NAM at this point is of any real use...but verbatim that is what it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 NAM being the NAM. Blizz would accept the QPF profile, toss the thermals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This may have a SWFE look at first. MLK 2010 FTW? On steroids. Sort of has the 2nd round of Dec '96 look to it too...minus the early Dec SSTs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Blizz would accept the QPF profile, toss the thermals It could come close, but this model was about 150+ miles off 36 hrs prior to The blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 It could come close, but this model was about 150+ miles off 36 hrs prior to The blizzard. Remember what it was doing 84 hours out? It had a weak wave going about 400 miles south of SNE. Then when it got closer, it brought the low over Phil which was awful. It's overall just a terrible model to use until we get inside of 24 hours, then it can start to give some clues. I'd much rather have the SREFs as a tool...they performed fairly well in the blizzard after having a terrible first half of winter. But at this point, global models are the way to go until we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I like that temps in the LIS are 34-36. Good news for the CP of CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Remember what it was doing 84 hours out? It had a weak wave going about 400 miles south of SNE. Then when it got closer, it brought the low over Phil which was awful. It's overall just a terrible model to use until we get inside of 24 hours, then it can start to give some clues. I'd much rather have the SREFs as a tool...they performed fairly well in the blizzard after having a terrible first half of winter. But at this point, global models are the way to go until we get closer. Yep, agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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