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Feb 24th threat. Signal has been there for a while now


Typhoon Tip

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1" line runs from about LCI-LEB. 2" gets to BOS. EC ens look good too.

 

How does it do qpf-wise out in the hinterlands?  I'm already looking to count on somewhat better ratios  to aid in whatever comes.

 

Also--doens't appear winds will be that big a deal with this does it?  Frankly, I have no use for wind with my snows.  October 2011 and the 23" I got in 9 hours in 2000-2001 in Westfield were the best.  Just pouring and piling up snow.  Beautiful stuff.

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GFS looks good right out to here with over 1" qpf.  I know better though than to get my hopes up until the Euro is on board. The Euro does the typical winter of 12-13 way of fringing us out here in ENY.

How does it do qpf-wise out in the hinterlands?  I'm already looking to count on somewhat better ratios  to aid in whatever comes.

 

Also--doens't appear winds will be that big a deal with this does it?  Frankly, I have no use for wind with my snows.  October 2011 and the 23" I got in 9 hours in 2000-2001 in Westfield were the best.  Just pouring and piling up snow.  Beautiful stuff.

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How does it do qpf-wise out in the hinterlands?  I'm already looking to count on somewhat better ratios  to aid in whatever comes.

 

Also--doens't appear winds will be that big a deal with this does it?  Frankly, I have no use for wind with my snows.  October 2011 and the 23" I got in 9 hours in 2000-2001 in Westfield were the best.  Just pouring and piling up snow.  Beautiful stuff.

 

We need the track over CC to get the heavy qpf out here.  There has been a slight NW trend on models but still so many runs to go...

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GFS looks good right out to here with over 1" qpf.  I know better though than to get my hopes up until the Euro is on board. The Euro does the typical winter of 12-13 way of fringing us out here in ENY.

 

 

We need the track over CC to get the heavy qpf out here.  There has been a slight NW trend on models but still so many runs to go...

 

As bad as it's been with  us getting on the outside, I know it's been worse for you, Rick.  Maybe this time's the charm.  Meanwhile, I hope you can cash in on some LES today.  BOX AFD is mentioning 1-2" possible in GC.

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Please let this verify...Looks like we are all in for a crushing, crushing blow

 

 

IT APPEARS THATSIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STILL TOHARD TO SAY HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CANSTILL WOBBLE. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING ACROSS THECOAST AND COASTAL PLAIN...BUT AGAIN THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ONEXACT TEMPS. BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO WARM IN THEIR 2M TEMPS AS DYNAMICCOOLING WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. EVEN THOUGH MIXING/RAIN WILLOCCUR ON THE COAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS THE SYSTEM EXITS ONSUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE COMBINED WITH THE COLDCONVEYOR BELT WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. CANNOT RULE OUTHEAVY WET SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ATTHIS TIME. TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES ARE AT RISK 
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Please let this verify...Looks like we are all in for a crushing, crushing blow

 

 

IT APPEARS THATSIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STILL TOHARD TO SAY HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CANSTILL WOBBLE. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING ACROSS THECOAST AND COASTAL PLAIN...BUT AGAIN THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ONEXACT TEMPS. BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO WARM IN THEIR 2M TEMPS AS DYNAMICCOOLING WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. EVEN THOUGH MIXING/RAIN WILLOCCUR ON THE COAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS THE SYSTEM EXITS ONSUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE COMBINED WITH THE COLDCONVEYOR BELT WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. CANNOT RULE OUTHEAVY WET SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ATTHIS TIME. TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES ARE AT RISK 

 

Yeah--the mixing in many of the p/c and zfp's across the region is enough to make one shudder.

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a lot of qpf through 108 but looks like temps don't cool til precip tapers off (FOR CT).. storm there so good trend now lets just get it colder.. not seeing any strong high to our north... looks like storm tries to stall at the bench mark

LOL..what? The 00z GFS was all snow for most of Ct except far s coast..What are you talking about?

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For now the p/c from Box has mixing issues all the way out to your door step.

 

Really?  I didnt' realize they did it that close.  I just did a quick sampling and saw it widespread.  I'll take comfort in seeing my taint-free one.  But, l'll take the word of Scott, Will and others that even coastal areas will get a pasting.  Give them the paste, send me some powder, please.

 

23.7/17

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We're getting later in this season, this might very well start as rain all the way up to Hartford/Willimantic/Boston, maybe even Worcester, but everything crashes and the interior eventually gets smoked. Not the best high placement and the parent low tracks to our NW, but once the coastal goes towards vertically stacked, watch out. (initial post was messed up, on mobile)

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That is a pretty ballsy AFD this far out. Also pnc showing 70% chance of snow on Sat is ballsy

Nice

I have confidence on par with this. I put out a 60% forecast yesterday morning. Bigger question really is about precip types and that's where confidence lowers.
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Eh, not sure....I think a tickle north is possible.

 

Respect the southern energy.  Sure we can hope it ends up a colder scenario but I'm not sold on any solution yet.  The 06z GFS is almost an isothermal pasting for me.  This is looking like an incredible storm.  Huge CCB with deformation band inland.

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