dendrite Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Too bad the DGEX is worthless...crush job from here to Ray to Will. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 1" line runs from about LCI-LEB. 2" gets to BOS. EC ens look good too. How does it do qpf-wise out in the hinterlands? I'm already looking to count on somewhat better ratios to aid in whatever comes. Also--doens't appear winds will be that big a deal with this does it? Frankly, I have no use for wind with my snows. October 2011 and the 23" I got in 9 hours in 2000-2001 in Westfield were the best. Just pouring and piling up snow. Beautiful stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 06z GFS was a total crush job too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Logan11 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GFS looks good right out to here with over 1" qpf. I know better though than to get my hopes up until the Euro is on board. The Euro does the typical winter of 12-13 way of fringing us out here in ENY. How does it do qpf-wise out in the hinterlands? I'm already looking to count on somewhat better ratios to aid in whatever comes. Also--doens't appear winds will be that big a deal with this does it? Frankly, I have no use for wind with my snows. October 2011 and the 23" I got in 9 hours in 2000-2001 in Westfield were the best. Just pouring and piling up snow. Beautiful stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 How does it do qpf-wise out in the hinterlands? I'm already looking to count on somewhat better ratios to aid in whatever comes. Also--doens't appear winds will be that big a deal with this does it? Frankly, I have no use for wind with my snows. October 2011 and the 23" I got in 9 hours in 2000-2001 in Westfield were the best. Just pouring and piling up snow. Beautiful stuff. We need the track over CC to get the heavy qpf out here. There has been a slight NW trend on models but still so many runs to go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GFS looks good right out to here with over 1" qpf. I know better though than to get my hopes up until the Euro is on board. The Euro does the typical winter of 12-13 way of fringing us out here in ENY. E NY and S/C VT are the 2013 snow holes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GFS looks good right out to here with over 1" qpf. I know better though than to get my hopes up until the Euro is on board. The Euro does the typical winter of 12-13 way of fringing us out here in ENY. We need the track over CC to get the heavy qpf out here. There has been a slight NW trend on models but still so many runs to go... As bad as it's been with us getting on the outside, I know it's been worse for you, Rick. Maybe this time's the charm. Meanwhile, I hope you can cash in on some LES today. BOX AFD is mentioning 1-2" possible in GC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Please let this verify...Looks like we are all in for a crushing, crushing blow IT APPEARS THATSIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STILL TOHARD TO SAY HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CANSTILL WOBBLE. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING ACROSS THECOAST AND COASTAL PLAIN...BUT AGAIN THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ONEXACT TEMPS. BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO WARM IN THEIR 2M TEMPS AS DYNAMICCOOLING WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. EVEN THOUGH MIXING/RAIN WILLOCCUR ON THE COAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS THE SYSTEM EXITS ONSUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE COMBINED WITH THE COLDCONVEYOR BELT WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. CANNOT RULE OUTHEAVY WET SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ATTHIS TIME. TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES ARE AT RISK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Please let this verify...Looks like we are all in for a crushing, crushing blow IT APPEARS THATSIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE INTERIOR. STILL TOHARD TO SAY HOW MUCH AT THIS TIME AS THE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM CANSTILL WOBBLE. BELIEVE THAT THERE WILL BE SOME MIXING ACROSS THECOAST AND COASTAL PLAIN...BUT AGAIN THIS CAN CHANGE DEPENDING ONEXACT TEMPS. BELIEVE MODELS ARE TOO WARM IN THEIR 2M TEMPS AS DYNAMICCOOLING WILL MOST LIKELY OCCUR. EVEN THOUGH MIXING/RAIN WILLOCCUR ON THE COAST/COASTAL PLAIN...AS THE SYSTEM EXITS ONSUNDAY...THE MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE COMBINED WITH THE COLDCONVEYOR BELT WILL ALLOW FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL. CANNOT RULE OUTHEAVY WET SNOW WITH SNOWFALL RATES OF OVER 2 INCHES PER HOUR ATTHIS TIME. TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES ARE AT RISK Yeah--the mixing in many of the p/c and zfp's across the region is enough to make one shudder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 1"+ for you on the op MPM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 a lot of qpf through 108 but looks like temps don't cool til precip tapers off (FOR CT).. storm there so good trend now lets just get it colder.. not seeing any strong high to our north... looks like storm tries to stall at the bench mark LOL..what? The 00z GFS was all snow for most of Ct except far s coast..What are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Yeah--the mixing in many of the p/c and zfp's across the region is enough to make one shudder. For now the p/c from Box has mixing issues all the way out to your door step. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 For now the p/c from Box has mixing issues all the way out to your door step. Really? I didnt' realize they did it that close. I just did a quick sampling and saw it widespread. I'll take comfort in seeing my taint-free one. But, l'll take the word of Scott, Will and others that even coastal areas will get a pasting. Give them the paste, send me some powder, please. 23.7/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Not sure if I'm comfortable with my location for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Not sure if I'm comfortable with my location for this one. Storrs or Hawrinton? Given how things have stayed east/south this year, I think the seasonal pattern works in your favor, even if the cold pool is not ideal. Meanwhile,enjoyhing the sn- this morning. 23.6/17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Storrs or Hawrinton? Given how things have stayed east/south this year, I think the seasonal pattern works in your favor, even if the cold pool is not ideal. Meanwhile,enjoyhing the sn- this morning. 23.6/17 well ill be in storrs but either way id like to be around or just north of I90 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 We're getting later in this season, this might very well start as rain all the way up to Hartford/Willimantic/Boston, maybe even Worcester, but everything crashes and the interior eventually gets smoked. Not the best high placement and the parent low tracks to our NW, but once the coastal goes towards vertically stacked, watch out. (initial post was messed up, on mobile) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That is a pretty ballsy AFD this far out. Also pnc showing 70% chance of snow on Sat is ballsy Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That is a pretty ballsy AFD this far out. Also pnc showing 70% chance of snow on Sat is ballsy Nice Tempered to a still, but slightly less ballsy 60% for GG. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 That is a pretty ballsy AFD this far out. Also pnc showing 70% chance of snow on Sat is ballsy Nice I have confidence on par with this. I put out a 60% forecast yesterday morning. Bigger question really is about precip types and that's where confidence lowers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 I have confidence on par with this. I put out a 60% forecast yesterday morning. Bigger question really is about precip types and that's where confidence lowers. as we progress through the season do the shortwaves get.easier to forecast? What is making this one.such a high confidence one? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 06 with a tickle south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 06 with a tickle south. You guys should have some more fun with this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
moneypitmike Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 06 with a tickle south. Seasonal trend for another Scooter win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 06 with a tickle south. Man I hope we can paste everyone with 12+ of Basketball hoop bending snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Seasonal trend for another Scooter win. Eh, not sure....I think a tickle north is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Gotta love the gfs storm sniffing capabilities this year. Way ahead of the op euro yet again on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Eh, not sure....I think a tickle north is possible. Respect the southern energy. Sure we can hope it ends up a colder scenario but I'm not sold on any solution yet. The 06z GFS is almost an isothermal pasting for me. This is looking like an incredible storm. Huge CCB with deformation band inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Were Euro ens a bit south of op? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 Were Euro ens a bit south of op? Almost identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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