packfan98 Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Don't forget about Siberian snowcover. I think I've heard that one spoken of during the fall before leading up to winter. Yeah, that one really didn't help this winter. I guess you would have the right flow, blocking, etc... for that to actually translate to cold in the US. I often see Van Denton showing how cold Canada is as well. I believe he only show this when a cold front is projected to come through and he is showing the source region. Also, snowcover is also shown for Alaska, to show how much ridging there is on the West Coast I believe. Seems like all of these indicators would either happen or lead to winter weather if we have the correct Teleconnections. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Don't forget about Siberian snowcover. I think I've heard that one spoken of during the fall before leading up to winter. I said that in the second post in the thread lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NCSNOW Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 How bout big east coast early season October snowstorms. Happened the past 2 Octobers and superstition or not they have proven to be the kiss of death. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I said that in the second post in the thread lol. I'm sorry, I didn't see it among your other indices like birds, Jupiter, and Halloween. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I said that in the second post in the thread lol. Sudden Stratospheric Warming.....solar minimum... lunar cycles..... soil moisture.....Melting Polar Ice... Shall I go on? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pcbjr Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 When the sand hill cranes arrive in north Florida from Minnesota. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 How bout big east coast early season October snowstorms. Happened the past 2 Octobers and superstition or not they have proven to be the kiss of death. Lol yep. I said that earlier. Might be a coincidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Sudden Stratospheric Warming.....solar minimum... lunar cycles..... soil moisture.....Melting Polar Ice... Shall I go on?Yes continue. Scandinavian Ridge. CCKW Kelvin waves Development of SE death ridge. 925mb anamoly maps The dreaded analogs that never play out. Its a shame at all the things that are mentioned and used for indicators of winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 How will an ice-free North Pole at the end of the summer affect Southeastern winters? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Big companies theory...they know...set prices ahead of time /etc...heard something like that a while back. Heating bills, etc........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 How will an ice-free North Pole at the end of the summer affect Southeastern winters? Don't know, but it will happen. I have found absolute proof of major climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 How will an ice-free North Pole at the end of the summer affect Southeastern winters? In therory, it would cause a -AO/-NAO winter........ At least that is what some climatologist suggest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Don't know, but it will happen. I have found absolute proof of major climate change. In therory, it would cause a -AO/-NAO winter........ At least that is what some climatologist suggest. Excuse me while I go start up my carbon dioxide generator. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Menstrual cycles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Don't know, but it will happen. I have found absolute proof of major climate change. Lmao wth is that 18th century thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Please don't leave. I was attempting to be funny and not insulting. I tried to send you a pm but your box was full. I would love to really hear your thoughts on some of these long range tools for the winter season and their value. Specifically the importance of ENSO, Teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA), and analog winters and snowstorms. LOL...I totally took it as funny. It didn't bother me a bit. I just had to go out and take care of things around the house. Personally I'm a bigger fan of the ENSO state than the other factors as that seems to pan out more than the others. I'm also not much of a long range guy as I'm like Lookout when it comes to my opinion of long range forecasts. It's almost like throwing darts. Now I really dig the stuff that Larry does as I'm am a stat guy but just don't have the time he has to compile all that data. He totally blew out the MJO stuff IMHO. I'm not the biggest fan of PNA and NAO as those are not really the drivers of the weather but rather just results of the drivers. I mean you get a big noreaster that can help pump a ridge in Greenland and then the NAO signal is negative. I think those signals are more a result of bigger forces like the ENSO state rather than the drivers. But they can reflect a pattern that shows that things can be all clogged up causing the next storm to take a different track. So in a nut shell I thing we are a long ways away from knowing what really does what for long range forecasts and I'm on the side lines watching and learning like everyone else. We have a long ways to go in that department. I want to take some time like Larry and compile NAO/PNA/QBO,etc data and see if I can come up with anything...some day. Right now a wife and two kids and running a company hinders that time. LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Lmao wth is that 18th century thing. Knickers. Although it really is more a 19th century garment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NGaWxNerd Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Knickers. Although it really is more a 19th century garment. I have a teen daughter, I think knickers should start making a comeback. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Psalm 148:8 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 snowpack in location X......blackbirds.....(no pun intended.....did not see clusters of them on the ground as in previous winters.....and we have been very warm.....think there is actual truth to this one).....person X started a thread!LOL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 .....think there is actual truth to this one).....person X started a thread!LOL!!! Bingo. that's why this winter sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Menstrual cycles. That's the one! Period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dsaur Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Early buds, late freeze. This one actually works out. Plants are known machinists. Uhh...masochists! T Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 21, 2013 Author Share Posted February 21, 2013 Thanks for all of the replies. I would love for Larry to drop in and give his thoughts on studying all of those analog years and how useful they can be in forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Halo's around the moon and birds GTFO out of Wilkes county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Atlantic ridge. ULLs around Nova Scotia. Pacific landfalling typhoons Super typhoons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Rain in Waycross. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dr. Steve Brule Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 When the gfs shows snow in Fl. for three runs in a row... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 Apparently the new OPI is able to predict the entire winter AO. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/41379-october-pattern-index-predicting-winter-ao-from-october-with-90-accuracy/#entry2434805 BS??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DixieBlizzard Posted October 11, 2013 Share Posted October 11, 2013 What did JB say? What did DT say? How is JB so wonderful? Why is DT so mean? That damn wedge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Suncat Posted October 22, 2013 Share Posted October 22, 2013 The price of beer and Ramen noodles goes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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