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Listing Past/Present Winter Weather Indicators


packfan98

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Don't forget about Siberian snowcover.  I think I've heard that one spoken of during the fall before leading up to winter.

 

Yeah, that one really didn't help this winter.  I guess you would have the right flow, blocking, etc... for that to actually translate to cold in the US.  I often see Van Denton showing how cold Canada is as well.  I believe he only show this when a cold front is projected to come through and he is showing the source region.  Also, snowcover is also shown for Alaska, to show how much ridging there is on the West Coast I believe.  Seems like all of these indicators would either happen or lead to winter weather if we have the correct Teleconnections.

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Sudden Stratospheric Warming.....solar minimum... lunar cycles..... soil moisture.....Melting Polar Ice... Shall I go on?

Yes continue.

Scandinavian Ridge.

CCKW

Kelvin waves

Development of SE death ridge.

925mb anamoly maps

The dreaded analogs that never play out.

Its a shame at all the things that are mentioned and used for indicators of winter.

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Please don't leave.  I was attempting to be funny and not insulting.  I tried to send you a pm but your box was full.  I would love to really hear your thoughts on some of these long range tools for the winter season and their value. Specifically the importance of ENSO, Teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA), and analog winters and snowstorms.

LOL...I totally took it as funny.  It didn't bother me a bit.  I just had to go out and take care of things around the house.

 

Personally I'm a bigger fan of the ENSO state than the other factors as that seems to pan out more than the others.  I'm also not much of a long range guy as I'm like Lookout when it comes to my opinion of long range forecasts.  It's almost like throwing darts.  Now I really dig the stuff that Larry does as I'm am a stat guy but just don't have the time he has to compile all that data.  He totally blew out the MJO stuff IMHO.  I'm not the biggest fan of PNA and NAO as those are not really the drivers of the weather but rather just results of the drivers.  I mean you get a big noreaster that can help pump a ridge in Greenland and then the NAO signal is negative.  I think those signals are more a result of bigger forces like the ENSO state rather than the drivers.  But they can reflect a pattern that shows that things can be all clogged up causing the next storm to take a different track.

 

So in a nut shell I thing we are a long ways away from knowing what really does what for long range forecasts and I'm on the side lines watching and learning like everyone else.  We have a long ways to go in that department.  I want to take some time like Larry and compile NAO/PNA/QBO,etc data and see if I can come up with anything...some day. 

 

Right now a wife and two kids and running a company hinders that time.  LOL

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