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Listing Past/Present Winter Weather Indicators


packfan98

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OK.  I have been thinking about this for a while now.  I have been following the winter weather models for about 10 years and every year there seems to be a new indicator (fad) that long-term forecasters try to use to predict the winter season.  I wanted to see if we can make an all-inclusive list here.  These are some of the ones I remember:

 

El-Nino

La-Nina

NAO

AO 

PNA
SOI

MJO (How many times have you seen that toilet bowl graph this year?)

QBO (I think that this was DT's pick for this year)

Analog winters and specific storms

Stratospheric Warming (last year and this year)

Sun spots (last year)

Volcanoes?

Using the Hurricane Season to predict the winter.

 

Well, there are a few to get us started.  I don't even know what some of these are or the context they were used.  Feel free to add others or discuss any of these in more detail.  If you want to discuss which ones may have more merit, go for it.  It's obvious to me that there are too many variables to be able to predict winter seasons with a high degree of accuracy.

 

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OK. I have been thinking about this for a while now. I have been following the winter weather models for about 10 years and every year there seems to be a new indicator (fad) that long-term forecasters try to use to predict the winter season. I wanted to see if we can make an all-inclusive list here. These are some of the ones I remember:

El-Nino

La-Nina

NAO

AO

PNA

SOI

MJO (How many times have you seen that toilet bowl graph this year?)

QBO (I think that this was DT's pick for this year)

Analog winters and specific storms

Stratospheric Warming (last year and this year)

Sun spots (last year)

Volcanoes?

Using the Hurricane Season to predict the winter.

Well, there are a few to get us started. I don't even know what some of these are or the context they were used. Feel free to add others or discuss any of these in more detail. If you want to discuss which ones may have more merit, go for it. It's obvious to me that there are too many variables to be able to predict winter seasons with a high degree of accuracy.

Lol I said the same thing back in January that there is a new factor each year.

PDO

EPO

Global Wind Oscillation(New)

LRC

September

Halloween

Birds

Worms

Siberia snow

Jupiter

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Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum. The Earth spins, and stuff in the atmosphere moving around over its spherical surface is affected by forces produced by the spinning..... Something like that.

 

Winds slamming into mountain ranges temporarily slow the rate of spinning of the earth and affect weather.  Or something like that.

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I thought it was the rate at which cold rain could finish off a bojangles biscuit.

Lol! That's the Bo's Gravy Biscuit Depletion Coefficient or BGBDC. A higher number usually correlates to warmer temps due to the direct linkage to Sudden Methane Production, clearly an insulation contributor.

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I was serious about the AMO and the GLAAM. But yeah, I derailed a bit too. Sorry bout that.

 

No problem, I think I helped steer it off it's tracks too.  I really did have good intentions.

 

 

 

......come back Moto!!!  I would love to really hear your thoughts on some of these long range tools for the winter season and their value. Specifically the importance of ENSO, Teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA), and analog winters and snowstorms.

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No problem, I think I helped steer it off it's tracks too. I really did have good intentions.

......come back Moto!!! I would love to really hear your thoughts on some of these long range tools for the winter season and their value. Specifically the importance of ENSO, Teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA), and analog winters and snowstorms.

IMO. ENSO is the biggest factor overall. Tends to drive more large scale patterns. 2nd would be NAO. Then PNA. I think AO is BS along with all that other stuff.
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Good one....

Exit...stage right....

 

 

Please don't leave.  I was attempting to be funny and not insulting.  I tried to send you a pm but your box was full.  I would love to really hear your thoughts on some of these long range tools for the winter season and their value. Specifically the importance of ENSO, Teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA), and analog winters and snowstorms.

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