packfan98 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 OK. I have been thinking about this for a while now. I have been following the winter weather models for about 10 years and every year there seems to be a new indicator (fad) that long-term forecasters try to use to predict the winter season. I wanted to see if we can make an all-inclusive list here. These are some of the ones I remember: El-Nino La-Nina NAO AO PNASOI MJO (How many times have you seen that toilet bowl graph this year?) QBO (I think that this was DT's pick for this year) Analog winters and specific storms Stratospheric Warming (last year and this year) Sun spots (last year) Volcanoes? Using the Hurricane Season to predict the winter. Well, there are a few to get us started. I don't even know what some of these are or the context they were used. Feel free to add others or discuss any of these in more detail. If you want to discuss which ones may have more merit, go for it. It's obvious to me that there are too many variables to be able to predict winter seasons with a high degree of accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 OK. I have been thinking about this for a while now. I have been following the winter weather models for about 10 years and every year there seems to be a new indicator (fad) that long-term forecasters try to use to predict the winter season. I wanted to see if we can make an all-inclusive list here. These are some of the ones I remember: El-Nino La-Nina NAO AO PNA SOI MJO (How many times have you seen that toilet bowl graph this year?) QBO (I think that this was DT's pick for this year) Analog winters and specific storms Stratospheric Warming (last year and this year) Sun spots (last year) Volcanoes? Using the Hurricane Season to predict the winter. Well, there are a few to get us started. I don't even know what some of these are or the context they were used. Feel free to add others or discuss any of these in more detail. If you want to discuss which ones may have more merit, go for it. It's obvious to me that there are too many variables to be able to predict winter seasons with a high degree of accuracy. Lol I said the same thing back in January that there is a new factor each year.PDO EPO Global Wind Oscillation(New) LRC September Halloween Birds Worms Siberia snow Jupiter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yeah, I thought of a couple of more: The Farmer's Almanac Wooly Worms Don't forget the newer long range, monthly models like the cfsv2 that has been less accurate than the previous two indicators! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 One of my personal favorites that was new to me this season: GLAAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I would put the most weight on enso. Nino winters are the best. Then I want a -nao/ao combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yeah, I thought of a couple of more: The Farmer's Almanac Wooly Worms Don't forget the newer long range, monthly models like the cfsv2 that has been less accurate than the previous two indicators! Oh lord not the CFS! and @ stovepipe, what is GLAAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 how crappy the Pacific is etc... Groundhogs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Don't forget about the AMO, the Tripole thing, and Mountain Torque. You could throw in magnetic pole shift too, but nobody seems to have much info on that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Oh lord not the CFS! and @ stovepipe, what is GLAAM? Globally Averaged Atmospheric Angular Momentum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Oh lord not the CFS! and @ stovepipe, what is GLAAM? Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum. The Earth spins, and stuff in the atmosphere moving around over its spherical surface is affected by forces produced by the spinning..... Something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jburns Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Yeah, I thought of a couple of more: The Farmer's Almanac Wooly Worms Don't forget the newer long range, monthly models like the cfsv2 that has been less accurate than the previous two indicators! Left knee. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Global Atmospheric Angular Momentum. The Earth spins, and stuff in the atmosphere moving around over its spherical surface is affected by forces produced by the spinning..... Something like that. Winds slamming into mountain ranges temporarily slow the rate of spinning of the earth and affect weather. Or something like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Winds slamming into mountain ranges temporarily slow the rate of spinning of the earth and affect weather. Or something like that.I thought it was the rate at which cold rain could finish off a bojangles biscuit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 You have El Nino and La Nina but what about Neutral? El Niño Modoki? Could probably just say ENSO status. Also have long range models like Beijing, CFSv2, etc... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I thought it was the rate at which cold rain could finish off a bojangles biscuit. You're thinking of the BBAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Might as well just say animals...groundhogs/birds/wooly worms/my grandmas leg hurts/...........> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frazdaddy Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 squirrels and nuts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Winds slamming into mountain ranges temporarily slow the rate of spinning of the earth and affect weather. Or something like that. Lmao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I thought it was the rate at which cold rain could finish off a bojangles biscuit. Lol! That's the Bo's Gravy Biscuit Depletion Coefficient or BGBDC. A higher number usually correlates to warmer temps due to the direct linkage to Sudden Methane Production, clearly an insulation contributor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Winds slamming into mountain ranges temporarily slow the rate of spinning of the earth and affect weather. Or something like that. Haha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Well, I was trying to be serious when I posted the topic. Oh well, I'll just go with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Sky healing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Sky healing I knew that one was coming! I'm glad there's a Red Tagger to come in here and give us some real analysis and thoughts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I knew that one was coming! I'm glad there's a Red Tagger to come in here and give us some real analysis and thoughts! Good one.... Exit...stage right.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Rain Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I knew that one was coming! I'm glad there's a Red Tagger to come in here and give us some real analysis and thoughts! I was serious about the AMO and the GLAAM. But yeah, I derailed a bit too. Sorry bout that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 I was serious about the AMO and the GLAAM. But yeah, I derailed a bit too. Sorry bout that. No problem, I think I helped steer it off it's tracks too. I really did have good intentions. ......come back Moto!!! I would love to really hear your thoughts on some of these long range tools for the winter season and their value. Specifically the importance of ENSO, Teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA), and analog winters and snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Well, I was trying to be serious when I posted the topic. Oh well, I'll just go with it.Lmao we are serious.Thunder in winter. Fog in September. Earlier season snowstorms. Hurricane landfalls. Sun angle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 No problem, I think I helped steer it off it's tracks too. I really did have good intentions. ......come back Moto!!! I would love to really hear your thoughts on some of these long range tools for the winter season and their value. Specifically the importance of ENSO, Teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA), and analog winters and snowstorms. IMO. ENSO is the biggest factor overall. Tends to drive more large scale patterns. 2nd would be NAO. Then PNA. I think AO is BS along with all that other stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Good one.... Exit...stage right.... Please don't leave. I was attempting to be funny and not insulting. I tried to send you a pm but your box was full. I would love to really hear your thoughts on some of these long range tools for the winter season and their value. Specifically the importance of ENSO, Teleconnections (NAO, AO, PNA), and analog winters and snowstorms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Don't forget about Siberian snowcover. I think I've heard that one spoken of during the fall before leading up to winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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