Mitchell Gaines Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Lots to look at for the upcoming season! 1. PDO had crashed to near normal 2. ENSO nuetral spring 3. Drought over midwest, Great Plains 4. MJO/ AO( NAO) conflict My two analogs as of now ( not sure what Tony will come up with) are 1991 and 2002 both featured a declining PDO from strong - and double Nina to nuetral ENSO. Overall the picture is warm from the plains east with some chill in the northern Rockies. Precip is near normal these 2 years. I would think the drought allows for the southern plains to be warmer than these analogs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby EPAWA Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Lots to look at for the upcoming season! 1. PDO had crashed to near normal 2. ENSO nuetral spring 3. Drought over midwest, Great Plains 4. MJO/ AO( NAO) conflict My two analogs as of now ( not sure what Tony will come up with) are 1991 and 2002 both featured a declining PDO from strong - and double Nina to nuetral ENSO. Overall the picture is warm from the plains east with some chill in the northern Rockies. Precip is near normal these 2 years. I would think the drought allows for the southern plains to be warmer than these analogs. Based on those analogs, how do things shape up for severe wx around these parts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Mitch, I don't look at analogs for spring or fall. If the Great Plains stay dry tough for this summer to not be hot again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Lots to look at for the upcoming season! 1. PDO had crashed to near normal 2. ENSO nuetral spring 3. Drought over midwest, Great Plains 4. MJO/ AO( NAO) conflict My two analogs as of now ( not sure what Tony will come up with) are 1991 and 2002 both featured a declining PDO from strong - and double Nina to nuetral ENSO. Overall the picture is warm from the plains east with some chill in the northern Rockies. Precip is near normal these 2 years. I would think the drought allows for the southern plains to be warmer than these analogs. warm spring is good, I always want it green when I have my spring vacation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Mitch, I don't look at analogs for spring or fall. If the Great Plains stay dry tough for this summer to not be hot again. The drought needs to clear up pretty quick otherwise it's game on for another torch summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The other S word already, it's tooo sooon:( Hopefully I won't have another very soggy yard this spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainshadow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The drought needs to clear up pretty quick otherwise it's game on for another torch summer. I would think we're in trouble this summer regardless of the Plains. I know this one is less, but the around solar maxes summers 1980, 1991, 2002 were all hot. Having them in drought just adds another log to the fire. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I would think we're in trouble this summer regardless of the Plains. I know this one is less, but the around solar maxes summers 1980, 1991, 2002 were all hot. Having them in drought just adds another log to the fire. not good Tony. Going into spring with dry conditions is not fun for golf course maintenance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Summer does look rather hot. Even the CFS is showing a hot summer focused on the southern plains. By May both of my analogs were pretty warm. Nice they match up with the other solar max's as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 With the way things have been going, you are almost dumb if you don't go above normal. We have had what 1 below normal month in the last 2 plus years? Though, we have a solid shot of being below normal this month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 With the way things have been going, you are almost dumb if you don't go above normal. We have had what 1 below normal month in the last 2 plus years? Though, we have a solid shot of being below normal this month. We'll finish below this month. We're at -1.8 through yesterday. We won't coax a +6 down the stretch. That's two below normal months in the last four months and three below normal months in the last two years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I would think we're in trouble this summer regardless of the Plains. I know this one is less, but the around solar maxes summers 1980, 1991, 2002 were all hot. Having them in drought just adds another log to the fire. I would agree on the overall summer theme but I'm not convinced we torch early and torch often like '91 (12 90 degree days in May) or even '02 with the 90's in April. Both of those years were torchy winters and torched in February. The latter doesn't apply this year as we'll likely be -1 or so on temps in February. Mild winter overall this winter but since January 15th we're below average on temps. The funny thing about 1980 is that we didn't get our first 90 until June 29th...and ended up with 36 90 degree days that summer. That would be tough to pull off in our modern climate but I could see a slow starting but later lasting heat season like 80 (maybe our first 90 in late May, a really torchy August like '02 was but without the early season heat). I like '07 a fair amount for an analog for the Spring -- we will spike warm at times (it hit 80 in March believe it or not, almost twice at PHL) but have to deal with off & on cold patterns that will stale out and suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 I would think we're in trouble this summer regardless of the Plains. I know this one is less, but the around solar maxes summers 1980, 1991, 2002 were all hot. Having them in drought just adds another log to the fire. I think we will be in a weak La Nina, and the below normal temps in the stratosphere will increase the heat potential (and severe weather potential) When does this winter pattern collaspe and we get to spring-like weather? I am reading after March 10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
greg ralls Posted February 24, 2013 Share Posted February 24, 2013 I'm hoping for some strong thunderstorms and a warm spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Voyager Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 I will definitely take the warm spring. Strong thunderstorms are just a bonus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 25, 2013 Share Posted February 25, 2013 We'll see what the ENSO does.. Looks like Neutral ENSO conditions projected. which means, do we have any analogs and conditions to match it up to? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 25, 2013 Author Share Posted February 25, 2013 Well I'm going to add a cold March to the mix and see if anything else comes up. I'd think now cold March with a equal reversal following that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 28, 2013 Share Posted February 28, 2013 Well I'm going to add a cold March to the mix and see if anything else comes up. I'd think now cold March with a equal reversal following that. That'll give you 1980 as a good analog -- March was cold, April was mild. I could see something similar although I think we start to see some "spring fling" days after next week although it may be a one/two day type thing ahead of cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted February 28, 2013 Author Share Posted February 28, 2013 That'll give you 1980 as a good analog -- March was cold, April was mild. I could see something similar although I think we start to see some "spring fling" days after next week although it may be a one/two day type thing ahead of cold fronts. Looks like a good fit. I agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 would be nice if this verified... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 ^^^ that would be amazing if that verified!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 033013-500.jpg would be nice if this verified... that would definitely be a warm flow with that high sliding off the coast. The shore locales wouldn't like it with a wind component coming off the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mike.Ventrice Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 033013-500.jpg would be nice if this verified... Euro ensembles have been showing this pattern for the past two days... with +10F anoms over the East. Latest weeklies also support it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted March 29, 2013 Share Posted March 29, 2013 It's long overdue!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchell Gaines Posted March 31, 2013 Author Share Posted March 31, 2013 Warmth finally in sight as the blocking pattern comes to an end. Still looks warm overall through the summer but not excessive. Drought resultant heat centered over southern plains and southern Rockies throuhg the summer. Maybe 0-2 above normal for temps through summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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