griteater Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I think it's fair to say that Asheville does fine in the widespread events where there is large-scale forcing (e.g. Dec 18 2009), but not so well otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This has been explained on here before but here it is again. Buncombe County is shadowed by 5k+ foot mountains to your west, north and east. Asheville northward up the valley is the driest part of all of NC and you can thank the mountains for that. I learned this quickly when I went to school there back in the early 90's. We would be under a winter storm warning and end up with flurries. Then I take a drive west to Balsam Gap in Waynesvilles and 6" would be on the gound. Saw stuff like this many times. Of course Asheville was clocked in the blizzard of 93 thanks to a nice moisture feed from the south. It's just the way it is in Asheville. so what you guys are saying the only way to mostly overcome this is to have a moisture feed from the south such as a low out of the gulf of mexico. in years past we have done ok with down slope events. at times a couple of inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 so what you guys are saying the only way to mostly overcome this is to have a moisture feed from the south such as a low out of the gulf of mexico. in years past we have done ok with down slope events. at times a couple of inches The main point is that AVL gets the shaft a lot so you shouldn't be surprised when forecasts come out showing pretty much all areas surrounding AVL to get more. That's all. Ed Brotak my professor at UNC-Asheville used to drill in us that the only way for AVL to get heavy snow was with a weak moist flow from the south. Of course it can happen in other situations but the shaft factor comes into play more because of the potential shadowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 so what you guys are saying the only way to mostly overcome this is to have a moisture feed from the south such as a low out of the gulf of mexico. in years past we have done ok with down slope events. at times a couple of inches Our big snows come from Gulf lows. The extreme N part of the county does fairly well with NWFS. Phased systems can be big winners (Xmas 2010) but we all know how often they win. It is what it is, but if you want to look at the glass half full compare the city or even the airports yearly snow avg to most of the SE members & we do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The main point is that AVL gets the shaft a lot so you shouldn't be surprised when forecasts come out showing pretty much all areas surrounding AVL to get more. That's all. Ed Brotak my professor at UNC-Asheville used to drill in us that the only way for AVL to get heavy snow was with a weak moist flow from the south. Of course it can happen in other situations but the shaft factor comes into play more because of the potential shadowing.I think with a strong miller a and se flow Asheville would do good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dntjr Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 terrain mainly. being close to NW facing slopes is crucial to squeeze out even a light amount. Too much "open valley" from the TN line into the valley. You know buncombe is the driest county in the state, while Trannsylvania is the wettest. Downsloping plays a major role in this stat. Beat me to the punck Franklin Wx, lol. I would have never guessed that about Buncombe, but based on geography, it does make sense....constant rain shadow- similar to a place I lived in SW Colorado (Gunnison) It is surrounded N,S,E, and W by 12-14K foot mountains (S- San Juans, W- West Elk, N-East River, E- Cont. Divide)- only time we would get good snow was with a weak northerly wind; we average 55" of snow per year; Crested Butte (20 mi N and up 1000 feet) 250 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 12z models run continue to look good for a front end dump of snow before changing to sleet and ending as light rain. This is for the SW mtns of NC. I can see a 2-4 event southwest of Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ncjoaquin Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The main point is that AVL gets the shaft a lot so you shouldn't be surprised when forecasts come out showing pretty much all areas surrounding AVL to get more. That's all. Ed Brotak my professor at UNC-Asheville used to drill in us that the only way for AVL to get heavy snow was with a weak moist flow from the south. Of course it can happen in other situations but the shaft factor comes into play more because of the potential shadowing. But regardless, Asheville averages between 13 and 15 inches of snow per year depending on what source you use, which is more than any large city in the state.... and the last 2 winters have been basically snowless. So, despite the fact that Asheville is one of the dryest areas of the state, we still, on average, should get more snow than most parts of the state.... and we have had no problem getting hammered with big rain events this winter. and here are the last several winters before the last years trace winter and this years trace(so far) winter. 00/01- 15.5 01/02- 1.6 02/03- 17.9 03/03- 14.3 04/05- 6.6 05/06- 1.4 06/07- 3.2 07/08- 3.8 08/09- 6.1 09/10- 39.2 10/11- 20.2 So, getting no snow whatsoever is not normal. Also, the stretch of winter between '58 and 83 just had 6 single digit seasons with a 40, 48, and a 31 inch season in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
griteater Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 But regardless, Asheville averages between 13 and 15 inches of snow per year depending on what source you use, which is more than any large city in the state.... and the last 2 winters have been basically snowless. So, despite the fact that Asheville is one of the dryest areas of the state, we still, on average, should get more snow than most parts of the state.... and we have had no problem getting hammered with big rain events this winter. The overall pattern over the past 2 winters has been terrible for wintry weather for the SE forum...so, folks getting more snow than Asheville when they shouldn't climo-wise is as much attributed to randomness as anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 This is so close to my map I made in the banter thread yesterday its not funny... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
K4CF Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 12Z Euro is on board for WNC mtn snow tonight and tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This is so close to my map I made in the banter thread yesterday its not funny... No, not really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 12Z Euro is on board for WNC mtn snow tonight and tomorrow morning Indeed. Even the Wunderground maps pick up the potential on this single frame tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This is so close to my map I made in the banter thread yesterday its not funny... You are missing 1/3 of western NC on your map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Here are the 2m temps at onset of precipitation from the 12Z ECMWF. It looks like basically all of NC is freezing at the surface. Ergo, even if 850s aren't ideal for snow in the foothills/piedmont, we should still be looking at a brief period of freezing rain and/or sleet. Here's the associated modeled precipitation at the same time. There's not a lot of precipitation there, but I see wintry potential out of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 I have a feeling a different afternoon/night shift at Blacksburg will take an ax to the accumulation map for Surry/Wilkes..SURRY-WILKES740 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK...A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND SNOW WILL BEPOSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY. NO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATION OF ICE OR SNOWIS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. - I have class at 8am so maybe things will be melted/washed away before sunrise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Someone is showing the love for Jackson Co... SW Special! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 GSP's afternoon disco. We know the mountains are going to get some snow. The interesting part to me is the tail end of this quote. Caldwell and Alexander counties? Maybe... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE SRNPLAINS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFTTO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...MERGING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY TODEVELOP A STRONG H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES BYTUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WE NEVER COME UNDER PARTICULARLY STRONGUPPER FORCING...A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET...ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTHSOUTHWEST...WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 8-14 UTC TUESDAY.BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE STRONG LLVL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS THE JETCROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS YIELDS ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 0.25 TO0.40 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID QPF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWESTMOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE PCPN AMOUNTS. SOME OF THELIGHTEST TOTALS SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN FRENCH BROADVALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE BALSAMS WILL RESULT IN APRONOUNCED PRECIPITATION SHADOW.TO GENERATE OUR WEATHER GRIDS I USED A TOOL THAT USES THE TOP DOWNMETHOD TO GENERATE PCPN TYPE. IN THIS CASE I RAN THE TOOL USING A50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS. THE RESULTS WEREQUITE INTERESTING AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRALMOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE BALSAMS...SEE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THEEVENT. POINT MODEL SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT AS WELL. THE PREVIOUSSHIFT GOT SIMILAR RESULTS...AND I/LL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVISORYWHERE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. A FEW SPOTS IN EASTERN MACONCOUNTY...NE RABUN AND SRN JACKSON HAVE NEARLY 4 INCHES OF SNOW.HOWEVER...THESE AREAS COVER TOO SMALL A GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR ME TOISSUE A WARNING. THE PCPN SHADOW WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS ACROSS THEFRENCH BROAD. HOWEVER...SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE WARMING MAY RESULT IN APERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IF SFC TEMPS CAN WET BULB DOWN TO FREEZING.THAT/S A BIG IF...BUT WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR TWOOF SNOW AND THE RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN IN VALLEYS...I/VE INCLUDEDTHE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AS WELL...INCLUDINGBUNCOMBE.THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MORE PCPN THAN THE FRENCHBROAD...AND I HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND A GOOD GLAZE OF ICE INMANY SPOTS FOR THOSE ZONES. AGAIN...WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAINPOTENTIAL A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS WARRANTED NO MATTERWHAT...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY ALSO APPROACH ADVISORY SNOW CRITERIA OF 2INCHES IN THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE.THE AIRMASS JUST LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MUCH EXCITEMENT OUT ACROSS THEFOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT....THOUGH PCPN COULD START AS A PERIOD OFSNOW OR SLEET IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS WRN NC BEFORE CHANGING OVER TORAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS...HOWEVER...MAY BE PARTS OF CALDWELL ANDALEXANDER COUNTIES WHICH SEE A MUCH WEAKER WARM NOSE. FOR NOW I/MLEAVING THEM OUT OF AN ADVISORY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Someone is showing the love for Jackson Co... SW Special! They must hate Asheville by looking at the map. GSP's afternoon disco. We know the mountains are going to get some snow. The interesting part to me is the tail end of this quote. Caldwell and Alexander counties? Maybe... Interesting find man thanks. Means something for me and Frosty perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Greenville is not the brightest of them all...will certainly go with Blacksburg when it comes to winter weather. Greenville goes on to say "LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS WARRANTED NO MATTER WHAT"...well that makes little sense to hold off Caldwell/Alexander then of course...snow/sleet criteria won't be met there most likely but one would think they would transition to some light freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 looks like the western half of transylvania and all of jackson are going to do fairly well with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 looks like the western half of transylvania and all of jackson are going to do fairly well with this system.looks like the heaviest precip could fall as snow before we hear some pingers bouncing of the windows. Looks like it should end as light rain tho. Should get to see some moderate snow for a few hours. Big flake potential! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 oh my god what happened they hate me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 18z gfs says what warm nose? Shows love for the n ga mtns too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 51 over 18 in Winston Salem...I think it will be possible to see some frozen precip out in the Piedmont initially. Van Denton now mentioning sleet down that way too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Author Share Posted February 18, 2013 Winter Weather Advisories now stretch from Georgia to New York. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Someone is showing the love for Jackson Co... SW Special! StormTotalSnowFcst.png Ya Jackson always does well with these southern stroms when the temp is right. SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON- TRANSYLVANIA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA... FRANKLIN...BREVARD, RABUN-AVERY-MADISON-YANCEY-MITCHELL-BUNCOMBE-HENDERSON- CALDWELL MOUNTAINS-BURKE MOUNTAINS-MCDOWELL MOUNTAINS- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLAYTON...NEWLAND...SPRUCE PINE... ASHEVILLE...HENDERSONVILLE 259 PM EST MON FEB 18 2013,ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE- PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH- ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE... TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD... PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE... VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON... HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON... BUENA VISTA...BLUEFIELD...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG... QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE Here are all the counties from North GA up through WNC in the Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 GSP's afternoon disco. We know the mountains are going to get some snow. The interesting part to me is the tail end of this quote. Caldwell and Alexander counties? Maybe... .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... A POTENT SOUTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE TROUGH WAS LOCATED OVER THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE MID-AFTERNOON HOURS MONDAY. THE TROUGH WILL LIFT TO THE NORTHEAST OVERNIGHT...MERGING WITH NRN STREAM ENERGY TO DEVELOP A STRONG H5 CLOSED LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES STATES BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON. WHILE WE NEVER COME UNDER PARTICULARLY STRONG UPPER FORCING...A 60KT LOW LEVEL JET...ORIENTED FROM THE SOUTH SOUTHWEST...WILL CROSS THE REGION BETWEEN ABOUT 8-14 UTC TUESDAY. BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE STRONG LLVL ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE AS THE JET CROSSES THE FORECAST AREA. THIS YIELDS ANYWHERE FROM ABOUT 0.25 TO 0.40 TENTHS OF AN INCH OF LIQUID QPF...ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST MOUNTAINS WHERE UPSLOPE WILL ENHANCE PCPN AMOUNTS. SOME OF THE LIGHTEST TOTALS SHOULD FALL ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN FRENCH BROAD VALLEY WHERE DOWNSLOPE OFF OF THE BALSAMS WILL RESULT IN A PRONOUNCED PRECIPITATION SHADOW. TO GENERATE OUR WEATHER GRIDS I USED A TOOL THAT USES THE TOP DOWN METHOD TO GENERATE PCPN TYPE. IN THIS CASE I RAN THE TOOL USING A 50/50 BLEND OF THE NAM AND THE SLIGHTLY WARMER GFS. THE RESULTS WERE QUITE INTERESTING AS HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY THE BALSAMS...SEE MOSTLY SNOW FOR THE EVENT. POINT MODEL SOUNDINGS BEAR THIS OUT AS WELL. THE PREVIOUS SHIFT GOT SIMILAR RESULTS...AND I/LL KEEP THE WINTER WX ADVISORY WHERE IT HAS ALREADY BEEN ISSUED. A FEW SPOTS IN EASTERN MACON COUNTY...NE RABUN AND SRN JACKSON HAVE NEARLY 4 INCHES OF SNOW. HOWEVER...THESE AREAS COVER TOO SMALL A GEOGRAPHIC AREA FOR ME TO ISSUE A WARNING. THE PCPN SHADOW WILL HOLD DOWN AMOUNTS ACROSS THE FRENCH BROAD. HOWEVER...SLIGHT DOWNSLOPE WARMING MAY RESULT IN A PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IF SFC TEMPS CAN WET BULB DOWN TO FREEZING. THAT/S A BIG IF...BUT WITH HIGHER ELEVATIONS SEEING AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW AND THE RISK FOR FREEZING RAIN IN VALLEYS...I/VE INCLUDED THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY COUNTIES IN THE ADVISORY AS WELL...INCLUDING BUNCOMBE. THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SEE MORE PCPN THAN THE FRENCH BROAD...AND I HAVE 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND A GOOD GLAZE OF ICE IN MANY SPOTS FOR THOSE ZONES. AGAIN...WITH THE LIGHT FREEZING RAIN POTENTIAL A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS WARRANTED NO MATTER WHAT...BUT A FEW SPOTS MAY ALSO APPROACH ADVISORY SNOW CRITERIA OF 2 INCHES IN THE NRN MTNS AND ADJACENT ERN SLOPES OF THE BLUE RIDGE. THE AIRMASS JUST LOOKS TOO WARM FOR MUCH EXCITEMENT OUT ACROSS THE FOOTHILLS AND PIEDMONT....THOUGH PCPN COULD START AS A PERIOD OF SNOW OR SLEET IN MANY SPOTS ACROSS WRN NC BEFORE CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS...HOWEVER...MAY BE PARTS OF CALDWELL AND ALEXANDER COUNTIES WHICH SEE A MUCH WEAKER WARM NOSE. FOR NOW I/M LEAVING THEM OUT OF AN ADVISORY. the warmer gfs just came in much colder for this event. Mostly a snow sounding until the very end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 18z rgem came in much colder compared to 12z run. Thats a nice trend on the nam/gfs and now rgem on the 18z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoshM Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wouldn't be surprised to see some snow/sleet here in the Piedmont... 42 and falling with a dew point of 28 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.