MotoWeatherman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 2:59 AM, franklin NCwx said: which would you trust on temps nam or gfs? Normally at this close of a range the nam due to its vertical resolution. I've seen the nam show a sliver of 850 zero imby and we got a surprise inch of snow while the GFS just didn't pick it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 2:59 AM, franklin NCwx said: which would you trust on temps nam or gfs? NAM tenfold can pick out the pocket of cold air around here(western NC)...it did previously this winter back around the Dec. 28th light event when the GFS did not. HPC nailed the 85% bulls-eye of sleet in my backyard while Blacksburg said cold rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 HPC again highlighting ice (freezing rain or sleet) very strongly for someone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 New snowfall map...increased amounts so maybe less sleet/freezing rain I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Blacksburg Convective band now along the miss river remains the main concern later tonight as it zips east and encounters residual cold/dry air still locked in across the region. Timing/quantitative precipitation forecast the main aspects across the western third by morning...and east of the Blue Ridge early Tuesday. Latest NAM and rap remain a bit slow with init on current axis of precipitation to the west...so planning to stay faster with arrival espcly given such a strong 3h jetlet passing through the bottom of the upper trough just west of the mountains by daybreak. Latest forecast soundings suggest quick wet bulbing down to an isothermal layer around freezing western half late with very little warm nose supportive of more sleet/snow except perhaps the far SW where the boundary layer may be a bit warm for little more than rain/sleet. Latest local rnk wrk also showing heavier bands of precipitation far west at the onset so main change was to up quantitative precipitation forecast along/west of the I-77 corridor by 12z...and boost probability of precipitation/snowfall for the northwest NC ridges into Grayson where 1-2+ inches look possible before precipitation tapers or GOES to -dz Tuesday. Elsewhere still thinking a mixed bag...but likely more snow in the typical deeper wedge areas...with some freezing rain possible valleys early Tuesday after surface temperatures have been briefly cooled below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pilotwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Man the winds are crazy in the past hour Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 The faster it gets in here the better...lunchtime events in the Piedmont rarely work out with something minimal like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z GFS snowfall accumulations... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kvegas-wx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I am running 85 from gso to atl early tomorrow. Anyone wanna guess on my road conditions? I havent been paying attention to this event at all. Seems limited to higher elevations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Setting the clock to 4:30. Probably won't get here until 6:30 tho. Need to do homework and study for my Business test. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAD_Wedge_NC Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 4:59 AM, kvegas-wx said: I am running 85 from gso to atl early tomorrow. Anyone wanna guess on my road conditions? I havent been paying attention to this event at all. Seems limited to higher elevations? Just some rain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 On 2/19/2013 at 4:59 AM, kvegas-wx said: I am running 85 from gso to atl early tomorrow. Anyone wanna guess on my road conditions? I havent been paying attention to this event at all. Seems limited to higher elevations? Dry if before 8am...then sleet/rain possible initially to cold rain with rising temps by late morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Road conditions should be 100% fine. Even if we got some IP/ZR to start out, it won't stick to the roads. Frankly, though, we're likely looking at a cold rain at this point and we likely aren't even going to get much of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Here comes the precip starting to makes its way into WNC.. temp here is 34.. dp 25.. mostly cloudy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wncsnow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 AS OF 1 AM...A FRONTAL BAND OF PRECIP IS POISED TO OVERSPREAD THESMOKIES AND SURROUNDING AREAS WITHIN THE NEXT 2 HOURS. BASED UPONCURRENT MTN VALLEY OBS (RELATIVELY WARM AND WELL-MIXED BUT DRY)...ASWELL AS THE NATURE OF THE UPSTREAM AIRMASS (VERY WARM)...I/MBEGINNING TO HAVE MY DOUBTS AS TO WHETHER WE ARE REALLY GOING TOHAVE ANY P-TYPE CONCERNS BELOW ABOUT 3000 FT THIS MORNING.NEVERTHELESS...AS THE LOW LEVEL AIR MASS SATURATES/COOLS IN RESPONSETO FALLING PRECIP...I STILL CAN/T RULE OUT A A COUPLE OF HOURS OFWINTRY PRECIP IN THE VALLEYS. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOROBSERVATIONAL TRENDS OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS...AND WILLREFRAIN FOR NOW FROM MAKING ANY RASH DECISIONS REGARDINGHEADLINES.Just read this from GSP im off the bed.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rainforrest Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 light snow starting to fall temp 34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Yep heavy Wet snow falling here. Current temp right at freezing. Big ol flakes. Windy as can be also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Heavy wet snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Heavy wet snow here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Ya it is just hammering here. Huge quarter size flakes. Starting to accumulate fast. Ground is covered and road is turning white. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wet rain here. Lol. Temp is 32.9 It didn't help having a start temp of 42. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 I need to change that last post. I looked at my rain gauge and it only showed .04" of rain inch of rain which did not look right looking at the radar. Got about 1/4 to 1/2 inch of snow on the metal porch roof. Currently snow and sleet and rain mix. Nice... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 getting some pretty large flakes now. Looks like more snow than anything else. Bonus Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Wow wish everyone could see this. Some of the biggest flakes I have ever seen. Still hammering here. Everything is covered and the roads are ver slick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Inch on the ground here in Cullowhee, mainly on the grass and about a half inch on the roads. 32F here in the Whee.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Alleghany County SchoolsSparta / Alleghany / NCTuesday: 2 Hour Delay02/19/2013, 4:51am Ashe County SchoolsJefferson / Ashe / NCTuesday: 2 Hour Delay02/19/2013, 5:00am Galax City SchoolsGalax / Carroll / VATuesday: 2 Hour Delay02/19/2013, 5:57am Grayson County SchoolsIndependence / Grayson / VATuesday: 2 Hour Delay, Limited Bus Routes02/19/2013, 5:49am Mount Airy City SchoolsMt Airy / Surry / NCTuesday: 2 Hour Delay02/19/2013, 5:33am Stokes County SchoolsDanbury / Stokes / NCTuesday: 2 Hour Delay02/19/2013, 5:21am Surry County SchoolsDobson / Surry / NCTuesday: 2 Hour Delay02/19/2013, 5:15am Watauga County SchoolsBoone / Watauga / NCTuesday: 2 Hour Delay02/19/2013, 5:21am White Plains Christian SchoolMount Airy / Surry / NCTuesday: 2 Hour Delay02/19/2013, 5:46am Read more:http://www.wxii12.com/weather/closings#ixzz2LLHqVxV8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 this was at the end of my driveway at about 6am. Nice little flush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WilkesboroDude Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 About a half inch here. Rates have been off and on. Seems like it won't stay consistent. Reports of over 3 inches just west of Franklin. I see moto is oveperforming again. Your new location keeps getting the heavier qpf I was forecasted to get. Thats makes twice now. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Ugh! Another tuff one to take. We have wet bulbed from 39.0° down to 37.5°. Nothing but cold rain here while it is snowing around us in all directions. Even the airport obs is snow. Congrats to all you guys getting the white stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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