WilkesboroDude Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Blacksburg feeling the love east of the mountains this morning... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Wilkes, if you are gonna start a thread please add some analysis. And put up a map that shows western nc. All I see is Boone and Wilkes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
POWERSTROKE Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Unreal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Southern Track Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Delete thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
calculus1 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Here's the majority of the effects in NC: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LiQuiDBuD Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Sweet, for once I'm in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tacoma Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 is Buncombe County always a no snow zone anymore. I don't quite understand, every time there is a chance of snow its all around Buncombe or its everybody 2-3 inches and Buncombe a trace. this one has me puzzled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Sweet, for once I'm in the bullseye. thats right! SW Special on the way... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 is Buncombe County always a no snow zone anymore. I don't quite understand, every time there is a chance of snow its all around Buncombe or its everybody 2-3 inches and Buncombe a trace. this one has me puzzled.the bulk of the precip will fall from the balsams on west. Buncombe counth is the driest part of the state. In situations like this the mtns of sw nc will eat up most of the moisture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Local Yokel Wx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 terrain mainly. being close to NW facing slopes is crucial to squeeze out even a light amount. Too much "open valley" from the TN line into the valley. You know buncombe is the driest county in the state, while Trannsylvania is the wettest. Downsloping plays a major role in this stat. Beat me to the punck Franklin Wx, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 thats right! SW Special on the way...I agree, I can see a 6 inch lolli on balsam gap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 terrain mainly. being close to NW facing slopes is crucial to squeeze out even a light amount. Too much "open valley" from the TN line into the valley. You know buncombe is the driest county in the state, while Trannsylvania is the wettest. Downsloping plays a major role in this stat. Beat me to the punck Franklin Wx, lol.this is why I love over running events that move in from a southwest trajectory. The southwest mtns as the warm air upslopes the higher terrain really enhance qpf totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This thread needs to be locked. LOL... JK...I think some of the higher areas of NGA above 2,500 ft could start as snow for a brief period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This thread needs to be locked. LOL... JK...I think some of the higher areas of NGA above 2,500 ft could start as snow for a brief period. how do your soundings look? I think Rosie can squeeze out an inch before a change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 This thread needs to be locked. LOL... JK...I think some of the higher areas of NGA above 2,500 ft could start as snow for a brief period. 80% chance in this area of a wintry mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 12z nam coming in colder for sw nc mtns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
superjames1992 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 12z nam coming in colder for sw nc mtns. It looks close even in the northern Piedmont. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 how do your soundings look? I think Rosie can squeeze out an inch before a change The 12z NAM looks very borderline for a brief snow period IMBY around 8 or 9z. Very thin line so it wouldn't likely pan out IMBY. I agree with what you have been thinking for up in your neck of the woods. Quick brust of snow for an hour or two. Bummer thing is it likely to happen at 3-4am. I do think Rosie has a better chance than I do on her side of the chain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 NWS is feeling pretty good about this. SWAIN-HAYWOOD-GRAHAM-NORTHERN JACKSON-MACON-SOUTHERN JACKSON-TRANSYLVANIA-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BRYSON CITY...WAYNESVILLE...SYLVA...FRANKLIN...BREVARD411 AM EST MON FEB 18 2013...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO10 AM EST TUESDAY...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG HAS ISSUEDA WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND ICE...WHICH IS IN EFFECTFROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST TUESDAY.* LOCATIONS...THE MOUNTAINS OF NORTH CAROLINA...ROUGHLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WAYNESVILLE TO BREVARD.* HAZARDS...SLIPPERY ROADS AND SIDEWALKS DUE TO A MIXTURE OF SNOW...SLEET...AND FREEZING RAIN.* TIMING...LIGHT WINTRY MIX WILL BEGIN AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT...CHANGING TO MOSTLY SNOW FOR A TIME OVERNIGHT AND THEN BECOMING SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN AROUND DAYBREAK TUESDAY. THE PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE TO RAIN BY MID-MORNING BEFORE ENDING IN THE AFTERNOON.* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 1 TO 3 INCHES...ALONG WITH UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE.* IMPACTS...SNOWY OR ICY ROADS WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DURING THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.* TEMPERATURES...IN THE UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.* WINDS...SOUTH 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS GENERALLY UP TO 35 MPH. WIND GUSTS AS STRONG AS 50 MPH MAY OCCUR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Also an advisory for the northern counties for pretty much the same thing. ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE-PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH-ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE...TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD...PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE...VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON...HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LEXINGTON...BUENA VISTA...BLUEFIELD...HINTON...HIX...UNION...LEWISBURG...QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 is Buncombe County always a no snow zone anymore. I don't quite understand, every time there is a chance of snow its all around Buncombe or its everybody 2-3 inches and Buncombe a trace. this one has me puzzled. .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... AS OF EARLY MONDAY MORNING...MODEL GUIDANCE IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH TIMING OF COLD FROPA LATE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW. SOUTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL PROVIDE BETTER FORCING THAN THAT FROM FRONTOGENESIS/COLD ADVECTION. PARTIAL THICKNESSES STILL SUGGESTIVE OF MIXED PRECIP AT ONSET OF EVENT AND WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW COMES WARMING TEMPS IN THE 750-850MB LAYER BEFORE DAYBREAK TUE. THIS PROVIDES THE WARM NOSE THAT WILL LARGELY DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE. ICE NUCLEI LOOK TO BE PLENTIFUL DURING THE EARLY PART OF THE EVENT...WITH DEEP SATURATION OCCURRING JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC FRONT. WITH THE WARM NOSE IN PLACE THIS MEANS ANY PTYPE COULD RESULT. RAN TOP DOWN TECHNIQUE USING NAM INPUT GRIDS WHICH GIVES INITIALLY MOSTLY SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...MIXING TO OR CHANGING TO SLEET FOR A TIME BEFORE SOME SITES CHANGE TO FREEZING RAIN AS THE WARM LAYER STRENGTHENS TO ALLOW TOTAL MELTING. FORTUNATELY BY THE TIME THE BULK OF THE PRECIP ARRIVES MID-MORNING SFC TEMPS WILL HAVE WARMED TOO AND EVERYTHING SHOULD CHANGE TO RAIN. THIS EVENT LOOKS TO HAVE FAIRLY LOW QPF DUE TO THE FAST SPEED OF THE FRONT THROUGH THE REGION AS WELL AS THE LACK OF GOOD UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EXCEPT FOR SOME UPPER DIVERGENCE IN THE EXIT REGION OF THE TROUGH. FOLLOWED MODIFIED 21Z SREF POPS...WITH HIGH PROBABILITIES OF 0.10 TO 0.25 INCHES IN THE SW MTNS AND ALSO NORTH OF THE FRENCH BROAD VALLEY. PARTLY GIVEN THE MIXY NATURE OF THE PRECIP TYPE AS WELL AS THE WARMING MID-MORNING...AND ADVY PROBABLY IS NOT NEEDED IN THE NRN ZONES. DUE TO POTENTIAL HIGH IMPACT WILL MENTION IN HWO AND PERHAPS AN SPS. IN THE SOUTHWEST CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER WITH THE EARLIER PRECIP ONSET AND POTENTIAL ENHANCEMENT DUE TO SOUTHERLY FLOW. WILL GO ADVY THERE. With all the responses being said......It has been 2 rough winters in a row for Buncombe county! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
metalicwx366 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Also an advisory for the northern counties for pretty much the same thing. ASHE-ALLEGHANY NC-WATAUGA-TAZEWELL-SMYTH-BLAND-GILES-WYTHE- PULASKI-MONTGOMERY-GRAYSON-CARROLL-FLOYD-CRAIG-ALLEGHANY VA-BATH- ROANOKE-BOTETOURT-ROCKBRIDGE-MERCER-SUMMERS-MONROE-GREENBRIER- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WEST JEFFERSON...SPARTA...BOONE... TAZEWELL...MARION...BLAND...PEARISBURG...WYTHEVILLE...RADFORD... PULASKI...BLACKSBURG...INDEPENDENCE...WHITETOP...TROUTDALE... VOLNEY...GALAX...FLOYD...NEW CASTLE...CLIFTON FORGE...COVINGTON... HOT SPRINGS...ROANOKE...SALEM...FINCASTLE...LE QUINWOOD...DUO...RAINELLE Its snows in your area with every system that passes by. How much are at for the season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The 12z NAM looks very borderline for a brief snow period IMBY around 8 or 9z. Very thin line so it wouldn't likely pan out IMBY. I agree with what you have been thinking for up in your neck of the woods. Quick brust of snow for an hour or two. Bummer thing is it likely to happen at 3-4am. I do think Rosie has a better chance than I do on her side of the chain. the nam has been the warmest of all the models. And its newest 12z run has the slightest warm nose at 800 mb for mby. It looks like a good thump of snow then sleet before ending as drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Its snows in your area with every system that passes by. How much are at for the season? So far with this last system we are at 19 inches. We still have a lot of winter left up here so hoprfully we might be able to get into the 30 inch range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rosie Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 The 12z NAM looks very borderline for a brief snow period IMBY around 8 or 9z. Very thin line so it wouldn't likely pan out IMBY. I agree with what you have been thinking for up in your neck of the woods. Quick brust of snow for an hour or two. Bummer thing is it likely to happen at 3-4am. I do think Rosie has a better chance than I do on her side of the chain. I do not think I will wait up to see what falls! Hope you see some wintry precip! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MotoWeatherman Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 is Buncombe County always a no snow zone anymore. I don't quite understand, every time there is a chance of snow its all around Buncombe or its everybody 2-3 inches and Buncombe a trace. this one has me puzzled. This has been explained on here before but here it is again. Buncombe County is shadowed by 5k+ foot mountains to your west, north and east. Asheville northward up the valley is the driest part of all of NC and you can thank the mountains for that. I learned this quickly when I went to school there back in the early 90's. We would be under a winter storm warning and end up with flurries. Then I take a drive west to Balsam Gap in Waynesvilles and 6" would be on the gound. Saw stuff like this many times. Of course Asheville was clocked in the blizzard of 93 thanks to a nice moisture feed from the south. It's just the way it is in Asheville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 So far with this last system we are at 19 inches. We still have a lot of winter left up here so hoprfully we might be able to get into the 30 inch range.we need to end the season with a real winter storm. Widespread 8-12 then we can hit average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Weenie snow map off the nam has a jackpot 4-5 at the macon clay county line. It even extends into nw rabun county in ga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NavarreDon Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Being surrounded by the Balsams, Smokys, & the Blacks makes it really hard for the French Broad River Valley to get any moisture. I average right around 36" a year up towrds Weaverville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
franklin NCwx Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Being surrounded by the Balsams, Smokys, & the Blacks makes it really hard for the French Broad River Valley to get any moisture. I average right around 36" a year up towrds Weaverville.the French broad river valley is in a bad spot all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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