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Central PA - Second Half of February 2013


MAG5035

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I am curious to see what happens when the warm front tries to push through tomorrow.  Too often with winds projected to be southeasterly as they are the colder air has won at the surface... warming aloft and cold surface -- ice?.... or does the warm air get hung up by the mountain chain and it end up colder here than expected?...

It probably wouldn't take much would it to have a little surprise like we did the other day? I think when i looked this morning, the GFS and the NAM had the temp in the mid to high 30's when the precip moves in. Yesterday we didn't make it into the 30's and it appears we won't today either.

nam had almost .50" for mdt it would be nice to get a lil something!

 

Edit- with the sun out now, we may get over 30.

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URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
253 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

PAZ004-005-010-011-017>019-026-027-221215-
/O.NEW.KCTP.WW.Y.0012.130222T1600Z-130223T1500Z/
WARREN-MCKEAN-ELK-CAMERON-CLEARFIELD-NORTHERN CENTRE-
SOUTHERN CENTRE-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WARREN...BRADFORD...ST. MARYS...
RIDGWAY...EMPORIUM...DUBOIS...CLEARFIELD...PHILIPSBURG...
STATE COLLEGE...HUNTINGDON...MOUNT UNION...LEWISTOWN
253 PM EST THU FEB 21 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM
EST SATURDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR A LIGHT WINTRY MIX...WHICH IS IN EFFECT
FROM 11 AM FRIDAY TO 10 AM EST SATURDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NORTHERN ALLEGHENIES AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

* HAZARD TYPES...WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN.

* SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO 1 INCH.

* ICE ACCUMULATIONS...LESS THAN ONE TENTH OF AN INCH.

* TIMING...A WINTRY MIX OF LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET WILL START AROUND
  NOON FRIDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO LIGHT FREEZING RAIN AND
  PATCHY FREEZING DRIZZLE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS DUE TO SLICK ROADS AND
  REDUCED VISIBILITY.

* WINDS...SOUTHEAST 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S AND LOW 30S.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

HAZARDOUS WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. USE CAUTION
WHILE TRAVELING ESPECIALLY ON BRIDGES AND OVERPASSES. FOR THE
LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION...GO TO WEATHER.GOV/STATE COLLEGE OR
STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO.

REPORT SNOW AND ICE ACCUMULATION TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
STATE COLLEGE BY SENDING AN EMAIL TO [email protected]...
POSTING TO THE NWS STATE COLLEGE FACEBOOK PAGE...OR TWEET
@NWSSTATECOLLGE AND USE THE HASHTAG C...T...P...W...X

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TWC, in all its genius creativity, brings us the name Winter Storm...

Q.

 

 

Q: The Broadway Express subway line in New York City.

This was on their info about the origins of the name "Q" haha, though this storm is hardly taking any kind of an express route across the US. The early next week storm that could have a better impact on PA probably gets the R name... Rocky. Time to "Q" up Eye of the Tiger.

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This was on their info about the origins of the name "Q" haha, though this storm is hardly taking any kind of an express route across the US. The early next week storm that could have a better impact on PA probably gets the R name... Rocky. Time to "Q" up Eye of the Tiger.

Great. Instead of a Rocky I type storm we'll end up with something closer to Rocky IV. 

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This was on their info about the origins of the name "Q" haha, though this storm is hardly taking any kind of an express route across the US. The early next week storm that could have a better impact on PA probably gets the R name... Rocky. Time to "Q" up Eye of the Tiger.

 

Ive been saying all winter that Philly will get a big storm when it is time for R lol

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I will be in Altoona, PA all of next week starting Sunday afternoon.  Perhaps I will experience some real winter!!

 

Dang what brings you to Altoona for the whole week? And if there isn't enough real winter down here in the valley next week, I'm sure there will be plenty just a short drive away.

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From what I understand they are kind of in a drought out there. So the snow should help them out.

Would be tough getting two 20" snowstorms in a weeks time.

 

Yea they certainly will benefit from this kind of storm pattern, most of the central and southwest states have been in a long term "severe" to "exceptional" drought.

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The 12z Euro had quite the event for interior central PA for early next week. Temps were marginal at times but it had the look of a heavy wet interior and/or elevational snow event as we have secondary formation that moves over DC. The low actually ends up closing off in eastern PA so I think they would eventually transition to some snow as well. The Euros secondary formation is actually quite far west, just barely east of the Apps as it moves thru central VA to DC and into SE PA. I'd imagine this probably ends up being running more along the coastline in this setup but we'll see. Euro is a lot slower than the GFS is.

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The 12z Euro had quite the event for interior central PA for early next week. Temps were marginal at times but it had the look of a heavy wet interior and/or elevational snow event as we have secondary formation that moves over DC. The low actually ends up closing off in eastern PA so I think they would eventually transition to some snow as well. The Euros secondary formation is actually quite far west, just barely east of the Apps as it moves thru central VA to DC and into SE PA. I'd imagine this probably ends up being running more along the coastline in this setup but we'll see. Euro is a lot slower than the GFS is.

I was wondering about it getting closer to the coast as storms don't usually run that close to the Apps.

 

Good lord on that trough afterwards. 

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0Z suites say virtually no precip falls in LSV BEFORE 0Z tomorrow night.  GFS much more aggressive with pushing rain up into our area during the day Sat than the NAM.

 

Meanwhile, next Tuesday is continuing to look like our first Warning Criteria event of the season down here.  That -10 isotherm at 850 just keeps swirling around us for days and days after next Tuesday's storm.

 

What say you, Mag?  Or Matt? or Jeff? for that matter.

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0Z suites say virtually no precip falls in LSV BEFORE 0Z tomorrow night.  GFS much more aggressive with pushing rain up into our area during the day Sat than the NAM.

 

Meanwhile, next Tuesday is continuing to look like our first Warning Criteria event of the season down here.  That -10 isotherm at 850 just keeps swirling around us for days and days after next Tuesday's storm.

 

What say you, Mag?  Or Matt? or Jeff? for that matter.

 

Models are in great overall agreement with this system right now with the 0z GFS/GEFS, Euro, and GGEM all having the same general scheme with this potent system coming up from the southwest and redeveloping on or near the Mid-Atl Coast before closing off with the leftovers sitting over the region. If the more obscure models are your thing the NOGAPs, DGEX, JMA, and UKMET are all in fair overall agreement with the major models.

 

In terms of expecting a pretty significant system Tues/Wed.. I have pretty high confidence of that happening. This won't be the dying system on arrival like the one set to affect us later today is. Where confidence quickly goes by the wayside is of course what type of precip to expect. The interior central portions of PA look to be the most heavily favored for a perhaps significant dump of wet snowfall with western PA and any other portion of PA above I-80 generally in the game for a good snowfall as well. Should be noted that tonight's Euro looked bit colder aloft tonight than it was at 12z. MDT's text data was painstakingly close to being a snow dump... with the two 6 hour frames with all the precip (totalling 0.76") having 0.4ºC and 0.1ºC respectively at 850mb with surface temps in the mid 30s. 850 temps nose above freezing roughly for the portion of PA east of MDT and south of I-78 as the weak secondary 850 low moves up into southeast PA. The GFS is very similar thermally... however it's secondary surface low development is more on the coast than the Euro's. That southeastern 1/4 of PA is going to be a tough call.

 

The whole system pretty much is in the process of closing off right overhead or nearby and as modeled by the major models... looks to sit and die over the NE/Great Lakes region the rest of the week. The most cyclonic flow is likely to keep upslope snows going in the high ground of PA (especially the Laurels) and perhaps scattered bouts of snowfall over the rest of PA.

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Yea they certainly will benefit from this kind of storm pattern, most of the central and southwest states have been in a long term "severe" to "exceptional" drought.

i saw a farmer they interviewed last evening, speaking of the draught and how the snow was welcome! i didn't realize how bad off they have been!

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