AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here's my thinking: The NAM was very weird to me and believe it was struggling as soon as the H5 energy got held back for a couple of frames in the northern plains and delayed the closing off of the ULL. This had huge impacts farther downstream because it took longer to close off, and thus the vorticity took longer to swing around the base of the ULL which would have resulted in a northward pull (or stop the southward push), but instead stayed the ESE course. The GFS was also weird in some ways, but not necessarily during the evolution. It was what happened after the base of the trough passed through PA that was weird. The ULL that has been persistent for days has a piece break off and actually pull the main ULL north which also gives a NE yank to the surface low, which is why you get snow from DC up the 95 corridor to Boston. That piece does not break off for the Euro AT ALL, and for the NAM, that piece is well ENE of the primary ULL. The Euro has been consistent...what can you say? But where it differs from the American models is how amped up the ULL it portrays from the very beginning of the evolution. Bottom line: Honestly, I have no idea what is the correct solution. I don't have any emotional attachment either way for folks in central PA. It would be nice to see some people in this thread pick up some plowable snows since winter has been a no-show for many of us, but at the same time, I'm ready for spring. If I were to pick a solution right now, it would be a GFS/Canadian solution with a slight acknowledgement to the Euro. I would say the people north of the M-D line by about 50 miles could see plowable snows and north of that lesser amounts, with D.C being the sweet spot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 CTP map, don't shoot the messenger haha. Clearly some weight on the SREF's with this map. Though I guess the GFS/GEFS QPF isn't really far off of this either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 CTP map, don't shoot the messenger haha. Clearly some weight on the SREF's with this map. Though I guess the GFS/GEFS QPF isn't really far off of this either. StormTotalSnow.png They better really hope the Euro is wrong. Their most recent AFD was pretty interesting and very detailed.... "TO SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE...AND OUR GRIDDED STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL ISCONSERVATIVELY PLACED A FAIR AMOUNT BELOW THE OPERATIONALGFS/NAM/SREF AND GEFS MEAN. INITIAL ESTIMATES OF STORM TOTALSNOWFALL VARY FROM JUST A FEW INCHES NEAR AND TO THE NE OF KIPT...TOBETWEEN 8-11 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER COUNTIES /WITH AGENERAL 3-6 INCHES NEAR AND JUST TO THE SOUTH OF A SEG-KUNV-KFIGLINE." And here's the link: http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=CTP&product=AFD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It is truly shocking the number of fanatical snow perverts and weenies and the northeastUS who will simply lie... Tell a bald face lie and makeup facts to support their delusional snow forecasts. This is NOT a matter of my forecast being right or wrong or their forecast being right or wrong.. WEATHER disagreements and forecast disagreements re allowed. LYING and distorting what the model data actually shows and says is not allowed. If you want to do that please go to American weather forms or to accuweather forums where this sort of thing is allowed and encourged I had banned several people in the last few minutes because they are simply lying about various weather models are saying. I just made a post about the new Canadian model even though several people here tried to lie and say that the Canadian model was just as far north with the March 6 low as the GFS. Now I am seeing the same sort of thing going on with the British model and I am about to post the latest images of that would show the British model is further south. Lying is not permitted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Sorry for bombing all this, I'm finding DT's hypocrisy hilariously ironic tonight lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Who's staying up for the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 here for the euro. couldn't resist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Who's staying up for the Euro? I'll be around haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Here for Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Me too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Man, DT's facebook is a war zone tonight. This is better than anything I've been flipping back-and-forth to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well, it wasn't as great as many had hoped. Still south, but I suppose a little farther north than before. Gets the precip shield farther north into PA, but not much higher than the TP, if that far north. Still seeing disagreement at this point in time with the majors. Tomorrow will be a big day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well, it wasn't as great as many had hoped. Still south, but I suppose a little farther north than before. Gets the precip shield farther north into PA, but not much higher than the TP, if that far north. Still seeing disagreement at this point in time with the majors. Tomorrow will be a big day. Looking at the image DT posted on his facebook page, precip gets way farther north into west central PA but the LSV gets fringed big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Euro looks like it continues to shut out the Sus valley judging by text data and bury the storm southeast. Might be a slight bit better in the southwestern part of PA. PIT and JST get about a half inch or so of QPF, AOO gets 0.4", Hagerstown gets around 0.6". Those are the better amounts I saw in PA and just across the border... FIG to UNV to SEG had a few hundredths and MDT/LNS/PHL are hard pressed to get a tenth total and York had 0.2". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Zack would do "okay" according to the Euro. Meanwhile, the chances of LSV being the big loser in a year that dropped big snows almost everywhere grow even bigger... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Last post for the night. CTP new map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 LOL at the none thats mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 That would be advisories for Cambria, Blair, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata, Perry, Cumberland, and Lancaster with Somerset, Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, Adams and York getting warnings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 That would be advisories for Cambria, Blair, Huntingdon, Mifflin, Juniata, Perry, Cumberland, and Lancaster with Somerset, Bedford, Fulton, Franklin, Adams and York getting warnings. Watches just issued for 4-8" for Somerset, Bedford, and Fulton. URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 243 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013 PAZ033>035-042300- /O.NEW.KCTP.WS.A.0004.130305T2000Z-130306T2200Z/ SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...SOMERSET...BEDFORD...MCCONNELLSBURG 243 AM EST MON MAR 4 2013 ...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * LOCATIONS...LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. * HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES. * TIMING...SNOW WILL BEGIN MID TO LATE AFTERNOON TUESDAY AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. * IMPACTS...SNOW COVERED AND SLIPPERY ROADS AND REDUCED VISIBILITIES CREATING DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS. * WINDS...EAST AT 5 TO 15 MPH. 03 SREFs just coming out, still high probs of decent snow for the southwestern third of the state or so... but lower in Eastern Penn as I would imagine members are starting to diverge more with having more Euro type outcomes with the coastal low. The probs are still pretty moderate for the range though, but still off from the overwhelming agreement there was. There are some probs that get into New England as well indicating members that might be trying to pull a GFS. Still waiting to see individual members. Best 4+ and 8+ probs in the south central seem to jive fairly well with the newly issued watch. Pit will probably be following suit for the lower third to half of their CWA for similar amounts. SREF snow probs at hour 60: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 Probably my last post for the night, 6z NAM back into C-PA better with precip (especially western half). Eastern half has the very tight gradient but better than 0z (way better if your in York/Lancaster and south of there). MDT being roughly .5" is probably alot better than being in that donut hole at 0z as well haha. The 12z suite later today should hopefully start getting things zeroed in. 0z NAM: NEW 6z NAM (thru 63 hour): Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paxpatriot Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone else think that State College is being rather conservative in SC PA with their new map? They originally popped one that had 8-10 for a decent section, then retracted it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Anyone else think that State College is being rather conservative in SC PA with their new map? They originally popped one that had 8-10 for a decent section, then retracted it. their discussion explains their thinking pretty well THE MAIN FOCUS OF THIS FORECAST REMAINS THE EVOLUTION AND TRACK OF POTENTIAL MIDWEEK WINTER STORM. THE 00Z SUITE GAVE REASON TO PAUSE AND REGROUP...WITH THE NAM DIALING BACK EARLIER ROBUST QPF AND SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF CENTRAL PA. INITIALIZATION PROBLEMS MAY HAVE BEEN TO BLAME...AND 06Z OPERATIONAL NAM AND GFS ALONG WITH 03Z SREFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE HEAVY SNOW POTENTIAL FOR THE REST OF THE SOUTHERN TIER INCLUDING THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY. IF 12Z RUNS AND 09Z SREFS MAINTAIN THIS TREND...DAY SHIFT MAY NEED TO CONSIDER EXPANDING THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO INCLUDE THE LOWER SUSQ RIVER VALLEY...AND PERHAPS THE NEXT STRING OF COUNTIES NORTHWARD. SHARP GRADIENT TO QPF/SNOWFALL WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE BIGGEST FORECAST PROBLEM ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL PA. WHILE CONFIDENCE IN A STORM PRODUCING HEAVY SNOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC REGION REMAINS HIGH...WE REMAIN ON THE EDGE OF WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL. A BLEND OF GUIDANCE WITH ROUGHLY 2/3 OF THE WET OUTLIER GFS CONTINUES TO POINT TO NEAR WARNING OR WARNING CRITERIA SNOWFALL FOR THE LAUREL HIGHLANDS AND SOUTH CENTRAL COUNTIES. IN COLLABORATION WITH PBZ AND LWX...ISSUED WINTER STORM WATCH EARLIER FOR SNOW FOR SOMERSET...BEDFORD AND FULTON COUNTIES WHERE 6 TO 8 INCHES OR LOCALLY MORE MAY FALL ACROSS ESPECIALLY THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THOSE COUNTIES. AGAIN...THIS IS BASED ON MUCH MORE CONSERVATIVE NUMBERS THAN WERE PREVIOUSLY INDICATED BY SEVERAL SREF AND NAM RUNS IN A ROW...AS WELL AS LESS THAN HALF OF THE GFS QPF. 06Z RUNS ARE NOW WETTER AND MAY SUPPORT EXPANSION OF WATCHES SHOULD TRENDS CONTINUE IN THE 09Z SREFS AND 12Z GUIDANCE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 09z SREFs are finally coming around to the rest of the modeling. The precip gradient is sharper throughout PA, but still has substantial amounts in the southern areas. 24 hr precip ending 03z Thursday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 The biggest slate of model runs this winter is about to start. Going to be interesting, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paweather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 09z SREFs are finally coming around to the rest of the modeling. The precip gradient is sharper throughout PA, but still has substantial amounts in the southern areas. 24 hr precip ending 03z Thursday Screen Shot 2013-03-04 at 8.37.17 AM.png That looks very good for MDT, LNS, York. Let's hope this continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 LOL at the none thats mean. They felt bad and got rid of it. I didn't get a chance to reply to this, but hey Atomic, I hear you on the AccuWeather boards. It was funny several years ago, you could tell when there was a mass banning at AccuWx, all these horrible posters would suddenly show up here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yay thank you ctp lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 If the Euro is wrong, I'll eat my hat and buy every person here a beer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rick G Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 another miss for us. NBD. At some point, we will get a monster storm again. This year it has been a year of near misses, we have had several good storms miss by 100 miles or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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