pasnownut Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I have a bottle of crown royal black coming my way if it snows 4" or greater( for here) I was tempted to take the bet, but mine would have been Captain Private stock.... yum yum rum.. Had a great weekend snowmobiling. Conditions were great. Left camp mid afternoon with 10" on the ground. I did "keep after" the storm evolution from my Iphone, but did not really look at the long range. I did read in the main forum that Don S. seems to be thinking that the pattern may hold and that there may be a couple more chances coming. Any thoughts guys? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Game over I-70 north. All hail King EURO. Seriously? 60 hours out your calling it? Wow you have way more confidence in the models them I do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Seriously? 60 hours out your calling it? Wow you have way more confidence in the models them I do. Yes. I am.The EURO hasn't wavered and the SREFs are doing their usual cold/snowy bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Either the girl at TWC made an "oops" or they know something nobody does. Just mentioned "One model suggesting the storm heads for New England" and "One of the American models that just came in is thinking the storm goes a bit north". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 True on the euro...very consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Yes. I am.The EURO hasn't wavered and the SREFs are doing their usual cold/snowy bias. Ok and I tend to agree things look bad right now but if the gfs holds and then the euro goes back to its solution from 2 days ago I wouldn't be shocked either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 didnt the Euro end up too far west with "Nemo" in the 3-4 day range from what actually happened? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Ok and I tend to agree things look bad right now but if the gfs holds and then the euro goes back to its solution from 2 days ago I wouldn't be shocked either. I ''canceled'' winter in January and still hold true on that. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few inches outside the mountains of Virginia but otherwise this isn't doesn't seem to be a monster event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 It finally fits!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I ''canceled'' winter in January and still hold true on that. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few inches outside the mountains of Virginia but otherwise this isn't doesn't seem to be a monster event. He did. He also "canceled" the christmas week storms that west-central PA enjoyed so much lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Don't venture into the MA thread-land...it's like a weenie hostile takeover in there. In other news, the 00z GFS looks close to 18z through 39. Little weaker ULL, but not by much. And the blocking up north is weaker too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 I ''canceled'' winter in January and still hold true on that. Wouldn't be surprised to see a few inches outside the mountains of Virginia but otherwise this isn't doesn't seem to be a monster event. Someone is getting 10" at least from this. I disagree there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Don't venture into the MA thread-land...it's like a weenie hostile takeover in there. In other news, the 00z GFS looks close to 18z through 39. Little weaker ULL, but not by much. And the blocking up north is weaker too. through 60 with the blocking weaker it is a couple miles north of 12z... at the surface also a couple mb stronger so wetter across northern VA and into southern PA as a result Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 through 60 with the blocking weaker it is a couple miles north of 12z... at the surface also a couple mb stronger so wetter across northern VA and into southern PA as a result in other words queue a DT rant about how bad the GFS is because it is further north than earlier lol... though northern VA very wet so maybe that will keep him happy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Dt only cares about ric. Gfs held and looks good along the southern tier of pa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 lol seriously, he just posted about the nam being too warm but at least it was "thinking the right way". look, we all know the euro is the best, but if he's going to take no other models into consideration, he's going to look like a jackass... wait, he already does. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Dt has been terrible since Wright weather data LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Another epic run for the southern tier of Pa. Now I have to stay up for the Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 From Steven DiMartino, NYNJPAWeather.com The new 00Z GFS takes a nice move northward, although warm with 925 MB temperatures between 2C and -1C throughout the region. This solution would suggest a mix of rain/snow with limited if any accumulation while just west of the Delaware River, a moderate snowfall accumulation, of say 3-6 inches would be possible. The GFS guidance took a big leap northward. But why? The reason can be found at 54HR at 500 MB when a piece of the upper level low breaks off and lingers over New England and then drops south behind the upper level low. This disturbance then pulls the upper level low on Wednesday night northward, thus the solution and jog north. This is a completely different way to bring this storm northward and thus I'll wait to see the other guidance first before taking this solution seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Qpf Totals: Estimates UNV: 0.34 AOO: 0.63 JST: 0.75 FIG: 0.25 MDT : 0.67 THV: 1.00 LNS :0.88 IPT: 0.22 US 30 corridor on the southern tier cashes in big time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Snow chase to McConnellsburg, PA lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Snow chase to McConnellsburg, PA lol[/quote I think I'll stay home and watch this one wink I'm one mile south of rt 30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 *** ALERT *** 00Z MONDAY GFS .. Once again is all by itself.. and take the MARCH 6 Low more North.. across se VA-- ( no other model does this by the way) and brings it further North by 50-75 miles... this puts heavy snow into Philly and S NJ... and Moderate snow into Philly and NY. In short this is going to be a another disasterous Busted GFS forecasts probably along the lines that we sought with the New England blizzard back in February 8.... Hurricane sandy hurricane Isaac and hurricane Irene. This particular run of the GFS model has NO snow for RIC....NOTHING not a flake.. NO snow for Ronaoke No snow for Lynchburg . Let me make it clear for the folks out there who have trouble holding two thoughts together once... I do not agree with this particular run of the G FS model or any of the last several runs for that matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 This is the second run in a row of the GFS that manages to round the corner enough to catch southern New England with precip as well, and it holds a straighter line across all of southern Penn with the decent precip instead of dropping southeast and shutting out southeastern Penn. It could be right if the blocking is a bit weaker, or it might not be. We can chalk up the NAM to being the NAM, I guess...but I hate that the Euro has been the way it is with this storm (which is what the NAM kinda looks like now). The 21z SREFs were still the most snow friendly, but you can notice the probs were tempered as you got toward NE PA. They'll probably tighten up more at 03z. All you can do is see what the rest of the 0z suite and associated ensembles do and go from there. I'm ready for this thing to get into nowcasting range haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Well at least we can narrow down chance of significant snow to jst...mdt to lns. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Based on what? Until they state otherwise, I still like where CTP stands on this. The GFS held serve and if the Euro begins seeing what the GFS does, it's game on for quite a few more people. I still think US 22 could end up being the line if a more northerly jog is to be had. The Euro's not infallible. Model hugging one model is just as bad as hugging another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Canadian agrees with GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 4, 2013 Author Share Posted March 4, 2013 *** ALERT *** 00Z MONDAY GFS .. Once again is all by itself.. and take the MARCH 6 Low more North.. across se VA-- ( no other model does this by the way) and brings it further North by 50-75 miles... this puts heavy snow into Philly and S NJ... and Moderate snow into Philly and NY. In short this is going to be a another disasterous Busted GFS forecasts probably along the lines that we sought with the New England blizzard back in February 8.... Hurricane sandy hurricane Isaac and hurricane Irene. This particular run of the GFS model has NO snow for RIC....NOTHING not a flake.. NO snow for Ronaoke No snow for Lynchburg . Let me make it clear for the folks out there who have trouble holding two thoughts together once... I do not agree with this particular run of the G FS model or any of the last several runs for that matter. So does Philly get heavy snow or moderate snow? Haha I try to be objective about models, like ok the GFS is on it's own attm with its end game... but I'm not going to discount it outright. I mean speaking from first week of March climo what's the better chance of happening.. a RIC snowstorm or a solution further north that gets some of the megalopolis and SNE? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 LOL some serious wishcasting underway in other forums. High quality stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 4, 2013 Share Posted March 4, 2013 Heard on other forums that the UK model came North. Not sure how far but it is good news since it was the furthest south model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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