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Central PA - Second Half of February 2013


MAG5035

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I'm getting a lot of grief from my non-weenie friends right now after I told them yesterday that we'd hardly see any frozen precip here in HBG. I don't think one single forecast called for snow here today. I wonder what's going on. I did notice when I went to bed last night that we had already fallen below our expected low temp. Any real mets on here want to comment on what's happening?

My brother asked me why this was the current forecast: 

 

Today: Rain, mainly before 5pm. High near 44. South wind 9 to 11 mph, with gusts as high as 29 mph. Chance of precipitation is 100%. New precipitation amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch possible.

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I'm getting a lot of grief from my non-weenie friends right now after I told them yesterday that we'd hardly see any frozen precip here in HBG. I don't think one single forecast called for snow here today. I wonder what's going on. I did notice when I went to bed last night that we had already fallen below our expected low temp. Any real mets on here want to comment on what's happening?

Dry air at the surface allowed the temperature to briefly drop to near freezing.  Not to mention the fact that it's February in Pennsylvania, so you, snow if always possible.

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Dry air at the surface allowed the temperature to briefly drop to near freezing.  Not to mention the fact that it's February in Pennsylvania, so you, snow if always possible.

 

Thanks for the explanation! In your opinion, is this a case where the local TV mets are kicking themselves for not catching something they should have seen coming, or is this just one of those things that happens sometimes. ABC 27 was posting pictures of snow in Chambersburg two hours ago while still insisting that a chainge to rain was imminent for everyone.

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Thanks for the explanation! In your opinion, is this a case where the local TV mets are kicking themselves for not catching something they should have seen coming, or is this just one of those things that happens sometimes. ABC 27 was posting pictures of snow in Chambersburg two hours ago while still insisting that a chainge to rain was imminent for everyone.

the timing was just perfect... something we have not had here much this winter... perfect where it came early in the morning before daytime heating could occur and temps had fallen enough overnight with dew point temps so low... there just wasn't enough surge of warm air at the surface as was expected so this ended up mostly snow rather than freezing rain/rain

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Thanks for the explanation! In your opinion, is this a case where the local TV mets are kicking themselves for not catching something they should have seen coming, or is this just one of those things that happens sometimes. ABC 27 was posting pictures of snow in Chambersburg two hours ago while still insisting that a chainge to rain was imminent for everyone.

 

I'm not kicking myself. We called for a wintry mix in the second half of the morning commute changing to plain rain showers by afternoon for a couple of days now. What was surprising, was the rates at which it came down. That really dragged down some colder air and thus heavy snow broke out. It's also true that it was perfect timing to have an efficient radiationally cooled column of air before the clouds came in last night/early this morning. That also dries out the column and thus the wet-bulb differential is greater....allowing for cooler temperatures once the column saturates. 

 

I am surprised to see over an inch in Cashtown (thanks cashtown_coop!) as that was not expected, but elevation played an important role in this one. Hardly a dusting here south of route 30 in York/Lanc counties eastward. 

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