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Central PA - Second Half of February 2013


MAG5035

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I agree. 3 negative comments in the last 30 min. This would not stand in other forums. Some of us are still in the game.

According to CPT DISCUSSION: SHOULD THE TREND CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CENTRAL PA BECOMES THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN THE DECAYING PRIMARY AND 2NDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...WHICH IS THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

You guys still have a good chance for a decent storm! Fingers crossed for you. Still plenty of time.

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According to CPT DISCUSSION: SHOULD THE TREND CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CENTRAL PA BECOMES THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN THE DECAYING PRIMARY AND 2NDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...WHICH IS THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

You guys still have a good chance for a decent storm! Fingers crossed for you. Still plenty of time.

Yep , I feel pretty good where things are now. Models will change , for better or for worse we'll have to see. Counting people out with 60 hrs to go is well you know.
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"Henry only has Roanoke getting 6 inches while this map and that map give it OVER 9-****ING-THOUSAND!!!!!"

 

- DT

 

In the leadup to the 2/5/10 storm, we were looking at a more southern solution up until 48 hours of precipitation, if I am not mistaken before a northern (albeit slightly) trend commenced and got SC-PA into the game. It seems as if this storm could be the same. Even with that storm, we were not the sweet spot but when you get 17-22 inches, who cares, right?

 

I like CTP's assessment that Central PA could find themselves in the sweet spot and HM's snow map is close to HPC's "sweet spot" of Central PA down to around Front Royal, Va. Let's see how this goes down.

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Sorry, didnt think I was being too negative. Im pulling hard for my Harrisburg brothers.

 I'm not a meteorologist, not even an amateur. I'm just someone who finds weather wonderful and fascinating, and I LOVE big snowstorms. So, I read these message boards regularly and get excited when I begin to pick up on the possibility of an approaching storm. I learn a lot from the knowledgable posters. I enjoy reading about different models and different interpretations. I'm like a little girl  the week before Christmas. I love the anticipation. Sometimes I get disappointed, but sometimes I don't. But when you tell me that my "goose is cooked" 60 hours before a storm's possible arrival, it's like telling a 6-year-old on December 22 that Santa's not going to come this year. Don't shut my hopes down so prematurely, please.

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In the leadup to the 2/5/10 storm, we were looking at a more southern solution up until 48 hours of precipitation, if I am not mistaken before a northern (albeit slightly) trend commenced and got SC-PA into the game. It seems as if this storm could be the same. Even with that storm, we were not the sweet spot but when you get 17-22 inches, who cares, right?

 

I like CTP's assessment that Central PA could find themselves in the sweet spot and HM's snow map is close to HPC's "sweet spot" of Central PA down to around Front Royal, Va. Let's see how this goes down.

 

That is more or less correct. And yes, CTP's statement is based off the fact that being in the bullseye 3 days out is almost always a bad thing. So they are implying that if the solution nudges north over the next couple of days, then C PA could be getting in on some action. That being said, it could also nudge south with a stronger trend of the ULL, so at this point anything can happen. I'd be nervous if I was D.C. right now though, you want to see that bullseye over you with 24 hours to go, not 72. 

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 I'm not a meteorologist, not even an amateur. I'm just someone who finds weather wonderful and fascinating, and I LOVE big snowstorms. So, I read these message boards regularly and get excited when I begin to pick up on the possibility of an approaching storm. I learn a lot from the knowledgable posters. I enjoy reading about different models and different interpretations. I'm like a little girl  the week before Christmas. I love the anticipation. Sometimes I get disappointed, but sometimes I don't. But when you tell me that my "goose is cooked" 60 hours before a storm's possible arrival, it's like telling a 6-year-old on December 22 that Santa's not going to come this year. Don't shut my hopes down so prematurely, please.

 

I feel UNV has a solid chance at getting a few inches. Being in the bulls eye now isn't always the best thing.

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Euro doesnt budge at 12z.

 

As in that's your prediction? Or you have early access to the model output?

 

I've noticed this a few times, that people post their predictions in an ambiguous way so that you aren't sure whether that's what the model is showing, or that it's just what they expect it to show.

 

EDIT: I see the e-wall has the Euro out to 96 already. Although it keeps a similar theme to the 00z, it is ever-so-slightly north/west.

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As in that's your prediction? Or you have early access to the model output?

 

I've noticed this a few times, that people post their predictions in an ambiguous way so that you aren't sure whether that's what the model is showing, or that it's just what they expect it to show.

 

EDIT: I see the e-wall has the Euro out to 96 already. Although it keeps a similar theme to the 00z, it is ever-so-slightly north/west.

 

It is still the most southern outlier (of the majors, at least). I think the 00z runs tonight are absolutely crucial for us north of the M-D line...if we continue to see a northward push then all hope is not lost, but if the NCEP models slide south to meet closer with the Euro, then it'll most likely be a borderline event for folks living in the Lower SQV and parts north with a VERY tight northern gradient. 

 

Those ensembles seem nice, but keep in mind (not necessarily for you, Mallow, but for everyone else) that the ensembles always "smooth" out any gradients so it may look like some precip gets into NC PA, but that could be an outlier ensemble member throwing some up that far north. It could be a situation where you can drive 50 miles north to south and go from just flurries to accumulating snowfall. Where that northern edge sets up is the million dollar question.

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