Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro from 0z is close to new ukie at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I agree. 3 negative comments in the last 30 min. This would not stand in other forums. Some of us are still in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Looks like the majority of precip is coming at night. Accumulation won't be a problem. There is still enough time for at least a 50 mile jog. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Is there any chance you'd consider waiting a little longer before you begin raining on the parade? If you are in Southern tier...ESP west of susquehanna you are Fine. Harrisburg still has a shot...bit areas I mentioned it would take a huge shift...and in confluence it is highly unlikely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I agree. 3 negative comments in the last 30 min. This would not stand in other forums. Some of us are still in the game. I specifically said you guys are very much alive and in good shape. LOL...just putting out a prediction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I agree. 3 negative comments in the last 30 min. This would not stand in other forums. Some of us are still in the game.According to CPT DISCUSSION: SHOULD THE TREND CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CENTRAL PA BECOMES THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN THE DECAYING PRIMARY AND 2NDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...WHICH IS THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.You guys still have a good chance for a decent storm! Fingers crossed for you. Still plenty of time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 According to CPT DISCUSSION: SHOULD THE TREND CONTINUE...IT IS POSSIBLE THAT CENTRAL PA BECOMES THE SWEET SPOT BETWEEN THE DECAYING PRIMARY AND 2NDARY COASTAL DEVELOPMENT. AT THIS TIME HOWEVER...STILL EXPECT THE GREATEST PROBABILITY OF HEAVY SNOW OVER NORTHERN VIRGINIA AND MARYLAND...WHICH IS THE CONSENSUS SOLUTION AT THIS TIME. You guys still have a good chance for a decent storm! Fingers crossed for you. Still plenty of time. Yep , I feel pretty good where things are now. Models will change , for better or for worse we'll have to see. Counting people out with 60 hrs to go is well you know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pawatch Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Yep , I feel pretty good where things are now. Models will change , for better or for worse we'll have to see. Counting people out with 60 hrs to go is well you know. Exactly!! Never want to be in the bullseye 60 hrs out any how. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I specifically said you guys are very much alive and in good shape. LOL...just putting out a prediction. I understand these aren't meant for my area. It's more of a negative vibe or bittercasting. You may be right or wrong but having a positive attitude for what ever happens goes a long way. That's all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Co op has the best shot at a big snow in our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sorry, didnt think I was being too negative. Im pulling hard for my Harrisburg brothers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I wish.I think areas west of me will have highest totals in PA. Better moisture Plus elevation to play with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 DT's on the attack on HM about "another horse**** map". Talk about irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 "Henry only has Roanoke getting 6 inches while this map and that map give it OVER 9-****ING-THOUSAND!!!!!" - DT In the leadup to the 2/5/10 storm, we were looking at a more southern solution up until 48 hours of precipitation, if I am not mistaken before a northern (albeit slightly) trend commenced and got SC-PA into the game. It seems as if this storm could be the same. Even with that storm, we were not the sweet spot but when you get 17-22 inches, who cares, right? I like CTP's assessment that Central PA could find themselves in the sweet spot and HM's snow map is close to HPC's "sweet spot" of Central PA down to around Front Royal, Va. Let's see how this goes down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 "Henry only has Roanoke getting 6 inches while this map and that map give it OVER 9-****ING-THOUSAND!!!!!" - DT That guy is a moron. He literally has zero room to talk and is an embarrassment when he says things like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maeve Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sorry, didnt think I was being too negative. Im pulling hard for my Harrisburg brothers. I'm not a meteorologist, not even an amateur. I'm just someone who finds weather wonderful and fascinating, and I LOVE big snowstorms. So, I read these message boards regularly and get excited when I begin to pick up on the possibility of an approaching storm. I learn a lot from the knowledgable posters. I enjoy reading about different models and different interpretations. I'm like a little girl the week before Christmas. I love the anticipation. Sometimes I get disappointed, but sometimes I don't. But when you tell me that my "goose is cooked" 60 hours before a storm's possible arrival, it's like telling a 6-year-old on December 22 that Santa's not going to come this year. Don't shut my hopes down so prematurely, please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Sorry buddy I am the same way. Where r u at you might have a solid shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 In the leadup to the 2/5/10 storm, we were looking at a more southern solution up until 48 hours of precipitation, if I am not mistaken before a northern (albeit slightly) trend commenced and got SC-PA into the game. It seems as if this storm could be the same. Even with that storm, we were not the sweet spot but when you get 17-22 inches, who cares, right? I like CTP's assessment that Central PA could find themselves in the sweet spot and HM's snow map is close to HPC's "sweet spot" of Central PA down to around Front Royal, Va. Let's see how this goes down. That is more or less correct. And yes, CTP's statement is based off the fact that being in the bullseye 3 days out is almost always a bad thing. So they are implying that if the solution nudges north over the next couple of days, then C PA could be getting in on some action. That being said, it could also nudge south with a stronger trend of the ULL, so at this point anything can happen. I'd be nervous if I was D.C. right now though, you want to see that bullseye over you with 24 hours to go, not 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I'm not a meteorologist, not even an amateur. I'm just someone who finds weather wonderful and fascinating, and I LOVE big snowstorms. So, I read these message boards regularly and get excited when I begin to pick up on the possibility of an approaching storm. I learn a lot from the knowledgable posters. I enjoy reading about different models and different interpretations. I'm like a little girl the week before Christmas. I love the anticipation. Sometimes I get disappointed, but sometimes I don't. But when you tell me that my "goose is cooked" 60 hours before a storm's possible arrival, it's like telling a 6-year-old on December 22 that Santa's not going to come this year. Don't shut my hopes down so prematurely, please. I feel UNV has a solid chance at getting a few inches. Being in the bulls eye now isn't always the best thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro doesnt budge at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Euro doesnt budge at 12z. As in that's your prediction? Or you have early access to the model output? I've noticed this a few times, that people post their predictions in an ambiguous way so that you aren't sure whether that's what the model is showing, or that it's just what they expect it to show. EDIT: I see the e-wall has the Euro out to 96 already. Although it keeps a similar theme to the 00z, it is ever-so-slightly north/west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 I waited to see it LOL....I am not just predicting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Superstorm Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Like where I am sitting. Our best snowstorms come when everyone thinks it will be south. If I am bullseye on models 24 hours before storm I am worrying about mix or change to rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 As in that's your prediction? Or you have early access to the model output? I've noticed this a few times, that people post their predictions in an ambiguous way so that you aren't sure whether that's what the model is showing, or that it's just what they expect it to show. EDIT: I see the e-wall has the Euro out to 96 already. Although it keeps a similar theme to the 00z, it is ever-so-slightly north/west. It is still the most southern outlier (of the majors, at least). I think the 00z runs tonight are absolutely crucial for us north of the M-D line...if we continue to see a northward push then all hope is not lost, but if the NCEP models slide south to meet closer with the Euro, then it'll most likely be a borderline event for folks living in the Lower SQV and parts north with a VERY tight northern gradient. Those ensembles seem nice, but keep in mind (not necessarily for you, Mallow, but for everyone else) that the ensembles always "smooth" out any gradients so it may look like some precip gets into NC PA, but that could be an outlier ensemble member throwing some up that far north. It could be a situation where you can drive 50 miles north to south and go from just flurries to accumulating snowfall. Where that northern edge sets up is the million dollar question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Got this from the Mid Atlantic forum ^^^^^^^ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cashtown_Coop Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 we need to update our thread title. still says end of february Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Srefs are great...wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scummyratguy Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Srefs are great...wow. can you elaborate please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 3, 2013 Share Posted March 3, 2013 Would be nice :-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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