NeffsvilleWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z GFS has it south and OTS with minimal precip north of the mason dixon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Don't look now, but the 12z GFS is a big jump to the north. Brings precip back into play across the LSQV. Let the games continue Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 12z GFS has it south and OTS with minimal precip north of the mason dixon. Still a big jump north from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Still a big jump north from 00z Absolutely. Significant move north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Baby steps fellas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 0Z: 06Z 12Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Blocking looks too strong for northward movement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Blocking looks too strong for northward movement. HM talks about that: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39543-march-medlong-range-disco/?p=2168920 There's still a lot of hope for the starving people in the LSV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 HM talks about that: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/39543-march-medlong-range-disco/?p=2168920 There's still a lot of hope for the starving people in the LSV. A shift north to get folks along the M-D line in play for good precip is not out of the question. Like HM said, that blocking up north is very strong so something cutting up the coast to Boston is unlikely. Most likely is either a southerly miss or a hit for the SC PA even up to C PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Baby steps fellas This. Today's Saturday and this timetable is Wednesday. If by Monday we're not seeing this thing budge north of Hagerstown, then punt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The big concern is moderate precip and no real good rates for s pa. It may snow hours and not really add up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 A shift north to get folks along the M-D line in play for good precip is not out of the question. Like HM said, that blocking up north is very strong so something cutting up the coast to Boston is unlikely. Most likely is either a southerly miss or a hit for the SC PA even up to C PA. And as somebody replied to HM, not a **** will be given if Boston or NY miss out. If we can just get this north enough, ideally, I'd like for most everyone here to get a nice event out of this, but the southern tier counties and LSV at the very least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Gefs a bit south of 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 The big concern is moderate precip and no real good rates for s pa. It may snow hours and not really add up. Moderate snow would accumulate in early March. If vis is 3/4 miles, snow will accumulate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GGEM north, UKMET south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro and gfs make up my mind...hopefully euro is good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro no changes, blocking is actually stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Timing is key, once 3:00 pm rolls around, sun angle really isn't a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Blocking is going to be the difference in all of this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I'm just going to draw a blanket over the sun. It's no longer going to be this giant gaseous flaming pain in the ass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 What are the European models seeing in the blocking that the North American ones aren't? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itstrainingtime Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Blocking is going to be the difference in all of this. Eric Horst mentioned this yesterday. It seems like there might be several factors at play, but Eric said it all comes down to the strength of the block. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Euro no changes, blocking is actually stronger. I think the Euro is farther north. I might be wrong but I don't think it brought decent precip above the M/D line like this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS is much farther north than the operational, as per people in other threads, fwiw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 15z SREF has a pretty substantial bowling ball farther north than both the GFS & Euro. This is the last frame of the model run, but this would be a great placement for SC PA if it verified and would likely result in a strengthening low closer to, but south of the Mason-Dixon line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I truly think that the southern strip of counties has a solid shot at a solid storm. As for us in AVP, UNV, IPT land this probably is not ours, but we've had ours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Laurel Highlands Wx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 This is going to be a N/S storm. I feel south of I-80 is in the game for solid snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MAG5035 Posted March 2, 2013 Author Share Posted March 2, 2013 GEFS is much farther north than the operational, as per people in other threads, fwiw. Heres the 72 hour precip map from that: 12z Euro manages to just get Pit as the precip shield comes southeast and then runs along the southern tier getting some moderate into the central border counties but not very much once you get toward Philly. Not really freaked out about the models being a bit south currently. And neither should anyone in the LSV or arguably anyone from the I-80 corridor south IMO. NAM/SREF early (and perhaps lol-worthy) takes look like they're involving a lot more of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 I think AOO to MDT to LNS has s shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Sounds like EURO has gone north, as well. DT mentioned moderate snow now in the Philadelphia/NJ region with DC/BWI now getting significant per that run. At this rate, there's not much time to trend to Detroit so we may be alright lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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