EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Canderson, Ill put 50 on no one getting more than 4 in the area I am sure the rug pulled will be coming soon enough. 18Z GFS already back way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Things were looking good, and the jinx comes in. Now things starting to look bad? I mean... you know... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Just read Steven DiMartino's thoughts on this event and the last couple of DT facebook posts and both signify how quickly things can change re: models. Both seem to "favor" the low being pushed OTS before making a turn north, DT likes his backyard being buried in snow and Steve D seems to think Philadelphia and area are on the north end. This would make it seem as if LSV to be the only area to not get theirs. Shocker lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Lol we are within 5 days it is that magical time when storms fall apart. Seriously, anyone who gets excited until it shows a good chance Sunday has not followed along this year. This storm reminds me of the one that shafted DC this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Interestingly enough: Steve Newton at WTAJ in Toontown addressed this in his 7-day and said that right now it looks like a "wintry mix south of US 22". A few moments before he had noted that the models were trending north, however and that was concerning him. Banter thread in Philadelphia asking about tossing the 18z GFS. Are there errors or is it just everybody hates the 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Things were looking good, and the jinx comes in. Now things starting to look bad? I mean... you know... It was never going to snow anyway. All day 5 dream storms are pipe dreams. Nothing looks good till it is actually on the radar. Enough of the bashing too. Don't appreciate it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 "Midweek rainstorm" was the verbage just used on Weather World. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yea...no jinx here. The weather will do what its going to do. This has not been a year of favorable trends though I must say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Enough of the bashing too. Don't appreciate it. Well it has been a joke, but I mean... lol, you "go away" after being "frustrated by all this" earlier in the season and most places (except LSV) enjoy a nice Christmas week of snow. You return sometime around the February storm where you went to CT and ever since it's been pretty tame. I'm not saying, I'm just saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Eastern please hang around, you give great insights. And I agree completely, this year you can get excited when all models agree 24 hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Well it has been a joke, but I mean... lol, you "go away" after being "frustrated by all this" earlier in the season and most places (except LSV) enjoy a nice Christmas week of snow. You return sometime around the February storm where you went to CT and ever since it's been pretty tame. I'm not saying, I'm just saying. Ya what happened in Jan? Nothing so what's your point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Eastern please hang around, you give great insights. And I agree completely, this year you can get excited when all models agree 24 hrs out. I'd say 0hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Actually, my bad, that was for the week after where they mentioned "Rain storm". Had to re-watch to make sure I wasn't hearing wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Ya what happened in Jan? Nothing so what's your point? Will you relax, Sally? It was a joke. Jesus. When you "leave" because you're frustrated, you should expect to get a little bit of ribbing when you return. Especially when you return during the period of an expected big storm (wherever it is) after a period of "nothing", as you called it. My point is: calm the **** down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Anyway, I don't want this to become the NY thread so enough of this. Back to the 18z tossouts. Any specific reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 18Z OP sucked, 18Z ENS good... lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Lol there are some monster trolling moments in both NY and New England. I wouldnt last 5 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Anyway, I don't want this to become the NY thread so enough of this. Back to the 18z tossouts. Any specific reason? It's an outlier, I guess. The ensembles looked pretty good. It's also a full phase, but really late. The others have a partial phase. I think that means that it might come way north next. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Anyway, I don't want this to become the NY thread so enough of this. Back to the 18z tossouts. Any specific reason? Here's my thoughts on the 06/18z suites: Don't *toss* them out. At this point in time, I would hold them the same stock as the 00z/12z runs that actually ingest upper-air data from the various sites. The off runs are just reinitializations of the main runs with a lot of the same data. There are some differences between the fresh data runs, however. My point is, the main H5 energy is over in the Gulf of Alaska where there are few observing sites. This is the main reason that our forecasting abilities beyond 5 days quickly decreases. Until we get more observing points upstream, we will still be playing the "model-flop" game until better data can be ingested. Until that upper-level energy reaches land, we will play this game and there could be several weenie suicide watches. LOOK AT THE UPPER-LEVELS! We have favorable blocking (likely won't be an APPS runner), which is one of the few times this winter season we've actually had this. Let's keep level-heads about this -- big snow storms in C PA are possible in March, but quickly diminish throughout the month. For SC PA, the chances are even more slim. It'll be threading the needle for a lot of us for this to turn into a substantial snowfall, but I am feeling more confident that a "plowable" snowfall is possible within 100-200 miles of Harrisburg. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 18Z OP sucked, 18Z ENS good... lol OP was pretty far south. If the ensemble mean is that much farther north, then there must be some northerly, bigger hits in those ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 OP was pretty far south. If the ensemble mean is that much farther north, then there must be some northerly, bigger hits in those ensembles. Talk about variability. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 A wise person on this board posted a few years ago "It snows where it has snowed all year." It holds try more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 A wise person on this board posted a few years ago "It snows where it has snowed all year." It holds try more fatten than not. Hahaha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Pretty awful trends from the GFS. The northern stream becomes less and less involved with the southern storm. If there is no interaction/phase, it will cut off and move slowly east well south of our area ala 00z. 12z, 18z, 00z at Wed 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Yikes...thats not even close lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Well, we could go through the whole stage of...at least it still has a storm....but we had a storm just like this earlier in the year that trended north just enough to give DC heartbreak. This looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Pretty awful trends from the GFS. The northern stream becomes less and less involved with the southern storm. If there is no interaction/phase, it will cut off and move slowly east well south of our area ala 00z. GFS can be pretty bad at times with the phasing at this range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 Ggem ots also...goodnight all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2001kx Posted March 2, 2013 Share Posted March 2, 2013 hey guys im going to be putting my northeast snowstorms volume 1 & 2 hardcover up for sale on ebay. but i figured i would offer them here to see if anyone would be interested before they go on ebay. price $50.00 + $5.00 shipping - paid via paypal Im not exactly sure what they are worth $$ so if my price is more than they are worth just let me know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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