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Central PA - Second Half of February 2013


MAG5035

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Not too bad for you down there also. 

Right output still has almost a half inch QPF for MDT, but precip rates may not be heavy enough to keep temps cold enough.  Like Matt said earlier the models ARE going to flip back and forth, so I am more than ok with there continuing to be a storm each run having us in and out of the core of the precip rather than have us in bullseye now then trend away into next week.  I think it would be ironic if the models lock into a storm days in advance since we are approaching the 20 year anniversary of 93 blizzard that the models locked on early with almost a week out!

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Nice "Potential" snowmap from Horst from Millersville U. (actually he must be giddy as well since I rarely seem him do this even in fun so early) Just want to make sure it stays snow down here in the LSV - you know us that have had little to cheer about unlike our bretheren across Central PA :whistle:

 

http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg

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Nice "Potential" snowmap from Horst from Millersville U. (actually he must be giddy as well since I rarely seem him do this even in fun so early) Just want to make sure it stays snow down here in the LSV - you know us that have had little to cheer about unlike our bretheren across Central PA :whistle:

 

http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg

That's way premature. 

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Nice "Potential" snowmap from Horst from Millersville U. (actually he must be giddy as well since I rarely seem him do this even in fun so early) Just want to make sure it stays snow down here in the LSV - you know us that have had little to cheer about unlike our bretheren across Central PA :whistle:

 

http://snowball.millersville.edu/~wic/storm_outlooks/latest.jpg

 

He's a good friend of mine, and you're right, he hardly does this sort of thing. He's a big weather-lover and this winter has been an absolute dud in terms of interesting meteorological phenomenon, so that may be why you see that map out this early since this storm would be a complete contrast to how tame this winter has been. He knows it's too early for a call on amounts, but he's illustrating potential - much like what Accuweather/TWC/every other major media outlet is doing. I like his take on the storm, but as of right now I think it's too bullish. This could just as easily miss us to the south by a wide margin. 

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TWC did a segment showing the UKMet, GFS, GGEM, and EURO earlier showing the general "consensus" that we're close to having on the placement of the low at this point. Between them and Accuweather's link of "Monster storm risk next week", the hype isn't coming from just Horst, who I have never seen that from. Even with the 2010 events, it seemed as if he was pretty calm until the last minute. 

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Horst knows his history and has a very good memory of past events. I know for a fact he keeps a diary of sorts on previous events and his thoughts leading up to them. When he saw the consensus building this morning and the pattern, I bet you even he got a bit excited on the inside.

 

He was probally thinking of this event, when he saw the models this morning:

020918.png

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So, it has started: My father is a state worker and reported via text message to my mother that the "word going around the shed" is 1-3 feet.

 

It certainly didn't take long for this to blow way out of proportion...

pennlive.com has a story titled "Heavy snow possibly middle of next week" already.

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pennlive.com has a story titled "Heavy snow possibly middle of next week" already.

 

 

Goes well with "Monster storm risk next week" over at Accuweather.com. I'm not saying it's not possible, but it's incredibly not likely and this kind of nonsensical bullshat is why stores do so well in french toast sales.

 

It also contributes HEAVILY to the "crying wolf" epidemic that weather folks have.

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Goes well with "Monster storm risk next week" over at Accuweather.com. I'm not saying it's not possible, but it's incredibly not likely and this kind of nonsensical bullshat is why stores do so well in french toast sales.

 

It also contributes HEAVILY to the "crying wolf" epidemic that weather folks have.

I'd put $20 on MDT not receiving 1" of snow next week.

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