snowalot Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Deep breaths. Let us take this one model run at a time. Hopefully this can be the one that delivers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Thanks for the good news Mag. Wsptwx, please dont debbie down this one.....we all know its 144. Just look for trends and let us hope for the best. I could also say "I hate hearning LNS in the qpf bullseye at this juncture..... But I surely wont Nut yea it is 144 but this isnt the first run the models have been showing something... this is what 3-4 straight days with the euro having a system with a hit or a near miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowalot Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Thanks for the good news Mag. Wsptwx, please dont debbie down this one.....we all know its 144. Just look for trends and let us hope for the best. I could also say "I hate hearning LNS in the qpf bullseye at this juncture..... But I surely wont Nut I would agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 yea it is 144 but this isnt the first run the models have been showing something... this is what 3-4 straight days with the euro having a system with a hit or a near miss? Agreed, but while I'm a "glass half full" kinda guy, the concern regarding the Euro is the lack of continuity with placement is concerning. Its almost like the "old GFS" corrupted the Euro, as weve seen wild swings from the Euro (500 miles between the 12z and the 0z). The good news is that your right, it has had the storm for several days, as well as that all models jumped onto the storm train overnight. As with many other storms this year, we once again have a lot of players stepping on the field, but hopefully this time they play ball (on our field). Speaking of, my daughter starts softball next Monday. Fielding grounders may be trouble midweek as they may not bounce much in 12+". Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Agreed, but while I'm a "glass half full" kinda guy, the concern regarding the Euro is the lack of continuity with placement is concerning. Its almost like the "old GFS" corrupted the Euro, as weve seen wild swings from the Euro (500 miles between the 12z and the 0z). The good news is that your right, it has had the storm for several days, as well as that all models jumped onto the storm train overnight. As with many other storms this year, we once again have a lot of players stepping on the field, but hopefully this time they play ball (on our field). Speaking of, my daughter starts softball next Monday. Fielding grounders may be trouble midweek as they may not bounce much in 12+". Nut When I played baseball at Point Park College I was introduced to the idea of playing hardball while it's snowing (not just Pittsburgh snow but we had NW PA schools like Gannon and Edinboro on our schedule). The worst was while I was playing 3rd base my freshman year, we were killing CCAC Boyce 15-2 in the 6th and a snow squall came in. The flakes were huge, and the guy pitching threw lots of junk. I kept asking the ump when they were going call it. All I could think about was taking a liner in the nose or worse thanks to a combo of heavy big flakes and a hanging curve to a right hander. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think the big takeaway here is that most major models now show at least the storm in one form or another. It could be 300 miles off of the coast before a phase occurs or it could be right in our backyards. It's important to note, that there is very potent H5 energy with blocking to the NW and north. The models ARE going to flip back and forth - likely for the next couple of days. Also keep in mind that the ingredients have to come together with absolute perfection in order to have a big snow storm for SC PA in March. It'll be tough to see anything substantial, but it's at least in the realm of possibility at this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Clause Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yea allweather is right...its going to have to be a beefed up storm with great rates. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yea allweather is right...its going to have to be a beefed up storm with great rates. Doesn't appear to be much chance for in-between. It's either going to be a big storm or a miss. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Agreed, but while I'm a "glass half full" kinda guy, the concern regarding the Euro is the lack of continuity with placement is concerning. Its almost like the "old GFS" corrupted the Euro, as weve seen wild swings from the Euro (500 miles between the 12z and the 0z). The good news is that your right, it has had the storm for several days, as well as that all models jumped onto the storm train overnight. As with many other storms this year, we once again have a lot of players stepping on the field, but hopefully this time they play ball (on our field). Speaking of, my daughter starts softball next Monday. Fielding grounders may be trouble midweek as they may not bounce much in 12+". Nut How old is your daughter? When I played baseball at Point Park College I was introduced to the idea of playing hardball while it's snowing (not just Pittsburgh snow but we had NW PA schools like Gannon and Edinboro on our schedule). The worst was while I was playing 3rd base my freshman year, we were killing CCAC Boyce 15-2 in the 6th and a snow squall came in. The flakes were huge, and the guy pitching threw lots of junk. I kept asking the ump when they were going call it. All I could think about was taking a liner in the nose or worse thanks to a combo of heavy big flakes and a hanging curve to a right hander. A girl i knew went to Gannon, played 1 year and transfered to Millersville. Its cold there in May. I think the big takeaway here is that most major models now show at least the storm in one form or another. It could be 300 miles off of the coast before a phase occurs or it could be right in our backyards. It's important to note, that there is very potent H5 energy with blocking to the NW and north. The models ARE going to flip back and forth - likely for the next couple of days. Also keep in mind that the ingredients have come together with absolute perfection in order to have a big snow storm for SC PA in March. It'll be tough to see anything substantial, but it's at least in the realm of possibility at this moment. Yea allweather is right...its going to have to be a beefed up storm with great rates. all i read is highlighted! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 When I played baseball at Point Park College I was introduced to the idea of playing hardball while it's snowing (not just Pittsburgh snow but we had NW PA schools like Gannon and Edinboro on our schedule). The worst was while I was playing 3rd base my freshman year, we were killing CCAC Boyce 15-2 in the 6th and a snow squall came in. The flakes were huge, and the guy pitching threw lots of junk. I kept asking the ump when they were going call it. All I could think about was taking a liner in the nose or worse thanks to a combo of heavy big flakes and a hanging curve to a right hander. That would surely suck....especially in the hot seat.... I'd be happier than all to see her have to practice indoors (our school is fortunate to have one). Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 How old is your daughter? A girl i knew went to Gannon, played 1 year and transfered to Millersville. Its cold there in May. all i read is highlighted! She is going to be 16 (a sophomore at Ephrata High School). I love your takeaways from our dialog....NOW THAT IS POSITIVE THINKING!! I'm outta here. Got to get some work done then headed to the cabin for some ridin on the sno scooters... Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sauss06 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 She is going to be 16 (a sophomore at Ephrata High School). I love your takeaways from our dialog....NOW THAT IS POSITIVE THINKING!! I'm outta here. Got to get some work done then headed to the cabin for some ridin on the sno scooters... Nut I ask because i coach. Good luck to her this season! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 all i read is highlighted! I laughed so hard at this. Amazingly, that's how things get portrayed sometimes in the media. You say, "chance of snow showers today, tomorrow, and Wednesday" and people hear "SNOW FOR 3 DAYS STRAIGHT!" Then panic ensues and everyone freaks out like this guy: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pasnownut Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I ask because i coach. Good luck to her this season! For what team? Thanks for the well wishes and best of luck to you and your team? I look forward to meeting when we both get to districts. Nut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I laughed so hard at this. Amazingly, that's how things get portrayed sometimes in the media. You say, "chance of snow showers today, tomorrow, and Wednesday" and people hear "SNOW FOR 3 DAYS STRAIGHT!" Then panic ensues and everyone freaks out like this guy: lol...this was posted over on the philadelphia subforum: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-allentown-lehigh-valley-major-blizzard-next-wee-20130228,0,5578245.story Juuuusssst a bit premature. One of the more interesting things I learned in my stint in weather communications at AccuWeather is a lot of the public will hear what they want to hear, including forecasts that no one is making. For example, a spring rainer is on the way, everyone has rain forecasts, even flood watches and someone will say "I heard it was to be nice today, weather man is wrong once again!". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AllWeather Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 lol...this was posted over on the philadelphia subforum: http://www.mcall.com/news/breaking/mc-allentown-lehigh-valley-major-blizzard-next-wee-20130228,0,5578245.story Juuuusssst a bit premature. One of the more interesting things I learned in my stint in weather communications at AccuWeather is a lot of the public will hear what they want to hear, including forecasts that no one is making. For example, a spring rainer is on the way, everyone has rain forecasts, even flood watches and someone will say "I heard it was to be nice today, weather man is wrong once again!". Ha, cannot tell you how many times I've witnessed this happening. Or one of their friend's cousin's boyfriend's dog's veterinarian's assistant told them they heard it was supposed to be nice that day....and then when it's a perfect forecast, you'll still hear that you sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Ha, cannot tell you how many times I've witnessed this happening. Or one of their friend's cousin's boyfriend's dog's veterinarian's assistant told them they heard it was supposed to be nice that day....and then when it's a perfect forecast, you'll still hear that you sucked. Yeah...sad but true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NeffsvilleWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 HM has a good writeup in the Philly forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 HM has a good writeup in the Philly forum I was hoping he would update soon. GFS looks like it's going to be further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JamieOber Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 This is a continuation of a good trend, just as long as it doesn't trend to say Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PottercountyWXobserver Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Hopefully the GFS is wrong with this storm, it would be nice to finish the season with a bang of a storm. The pattern looks gross after this storm passes and the SE ridge looks to come alive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Dear GFS, lol it's about time you joined the club. -- signed the Euro http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/midatlantic-snowstorm-potentia/7088979 I have no problem for a presentation of both extremes for what might happen but Pennlive has already picked up this article and posted as "possible snow next week"... the opposite scenario does not get portrayed... drives me nuts lol 12z GFS QPF fyi: MDT - 1.37" with 850 temps below 0 and surface temps 30-33 F -- then .17" to end with a slight warm up for some reason IPT - nearly 1" UNV - closer to .75" those numbers look impressive yes, but at least 1/3rd of those come from slow accumulating periods to begin and end of 12 or more hours around the peak period of what this run is projecting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
skiier04 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I was just about to cancel winter too! This looks like a fun one to track. Remember people... keep expectations low ... for your own mental health Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
djr5001 Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I was just about to cancel winter too! This looks like a fun one to track. Remember people... keep expectations low ... for your own mental health well this very well become a system that changes the pattern enough to end winter lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I'm going to be monitoring this one from home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 We could use a good snow storm for snow melt now that we are a fews weeks away from leaf out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 I think the best thing going for this threat is that the "A-list" models all show it (GFS, GGEM, EURO), while the less-reliable UKMET, NOGAPS, and DGEX are out to sea! And yes, I know the UKMET is supposed to be up there with the best of them but to be honest I can't remember when it has performed well during winter storms this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Did 12z GGEM just go inland? Stalling over DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jmister Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Did 12z GGEM just go inland? Stalling over DC? Yup...a beautiful track for this area. Just classic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WmsptWx Posted March 1, 2013 Share Posted March 1, 2013 Yup...a beautiful track for this area. Just classic. Well, as Jamie said, let's just make sure this doesn't end up stalling over Hamilton, Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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