Central PA - Second Half of February 2013

[Mallow]

Well, last model I check for this event, nam now almost warm as gfs. Gfs wins this round of model wars. See you back here for the next one everybody.

 

 

Euro is still mostly snow, but okay.

 

Actually, the biggest concern on the Euro isn't the upper level temperatures (which are mostly good for us, with maybe a 3-6 hour window where they're marginal), but the near-sfc temperatures.

[sauss06]

I wasn't talking about this event....I think you thought I was. I am talking about going forward after this. I guess the next chance is around March 5 and then again March 10-11. 

for some reason, that march 5th time frame has my interest.

[Santa Clause]

No,.I understood jamie, just putting a period on this event. March 5th just sounds right to me,.but as usual I may be wrong.

[Mallow]

Just to get an idea about how the models are handling temperature for this event, here is the observed 12z sounding for KPIT and the modelled 6-hour NAM forecast at the same time and place:

 

...

 

So while the obs are 1-2 degrees warmer than the forecast, the dewpoint is cooler than expected. This may lead to more evaporational cooling than expected from the surface to 700mb. 

 

Just checked Euro soundings at Pittsburgh, Roanoke, Dulles, and Buffalo, and all looked very good. And 00z UKMET still cold. Still a battle of the models.

[Santa Clause]

What did euro have total qpf wise?

[Mallow]

What did euro have total qpf wise?

 

Between 1" and 1.25" at UNV. Probably near or just under 1" at IPT.

[WmsptWx]

Ahhh boys, doesn't it seem like we keep saying the same thing?

 

"I like the time period around <insert date here>" and than time period comes and the models trend warmer or shove the storm to the south or run it up the lakes.

 

We then rinse/repeat.

 

I have zero modeling data to back my belief that we're done and in fact the models would suggest otherwise, but around here we like to discuss trends. Maybe it's time we address the real trend...

[JamieOber]

Ahhh boys, doesn't it seem like we keep saying the same thing?

 

"I like the time period around <insert date here>" and than time period comes and the models trend warmer or shove the storm to the south or run it up the lakes.

 

We then rinse/repeat.

 

I have zero modeling data to back my belief that we're done and in fact the models would suggest otherwise, but around here we like to discuss trends. Maybe it's time we address the real trend...

Over and over again, I've seen people give up on winter on weather forums and they've ended up being wrong. The problem is forecasting based on pure emotion. There are examples in the past of people giving up on winter only to have it snow. March 2007 is a great example, as is March 2011. In 1999 and 1981, people on here would have given up. 

 

The key to not look foolish is to try to be strong enough to control your emotions. Overall, I think our forum does a much better job than others (frankly, many in the other subforums act like little kids). I really have no idea if we will see more snow or not. I'd lean toward yes based on history and pattern. But is that a certainty? Of course not.

[JamieOber]

Between 1" and 1.25" at UNV. Probably near or just under 1" at IPT.

GFS is colder. Boy is this close: 

 

 

WED 00Z 27-FEB   1.1     0.4    1012      98      98    0.27     557     548    WED 06Z 27-FEB   0.7     0.7    1005      98      98    0.43     549     544    WED 12Z 27-FEB   1.8     1.6     999      99      99    0.28     542     543

[JamieOber]

No,.I understood jamie, just putting a period on this event. March 5th just sounds right to me,.but as usual I may be wrong.

I think the best call with the most chance to be right is somewhere in PA there will be a bust, either way. The GFS run makes me a bit nuts because It's colder here. 

[djr5001]

I think the best call with the most chance to be right is somewhere in PA there will be a bust, either way. The GFS run makes me a bit nuts because It's colder here. 

If the AOO/UNV/IPT areas can avoid the flood of warm air aloft that the 850 southeasterly jet is pushing into the MDT/LNS/THV region it is going to be really close to going either way for you guys.  Current wet bulb temps look good for you guys if the precip can move in soon enough... not taking long to reach the ground as Pittsburgh is already reporting light rain.

[jm1220]

Over and over again, I've seen people give up on winter on weather forums and they've ended up being wrong. The problem is forecasting based on pure emotion. There are examples in the past of people giving up on winter only to have it snow. March 2007 is a great example, as is March 2011. In 1999 and 1981, people on here would have given up. 

 

The key to not look foolish is to try to be strong enough to control your emotions. Overall, I think our forum does a much better job than others (frankly, many in the other subforums act like little kids). I really have no idea if we will see more snow or not. I'd lean toward yes based on history and pattern. But is that a certainty? Of course not.

For as much as I used to complain here (admittedly I was one of the worst offenders once, lol), I've seen a number of events perform better than expected for State College when I lived up there, and the events that seemed to overperform were the marginal type events like this one where UNV and AOO would thump very wet snow because of the high valley floors they are situated in. For IPT's case right on the Susquehanna, they might be in more trouble I would think but they could luck out as well. It's not ridiculously late or early season either, so the odds could be even better. It might be a lot of heartbreak too but that's the nature of the game.

 

As for other forums, one of the reasons I'm posting here again is because I'm sick of the bickering over on the NYC forum.

 

I-95 esp. from Philly north has no idea how lucky they've had it over the last decade, and I remind them of it quite a lot.

[djr5001]

FWIW... 12z Euro has 850mb temps stay below 0 for UNV/AOO/IPT... surface temps all close to 32-34 until tomorrow afternoon... also of note with this is UNV surface temp at 18z on Euro is 40 while 38 for AOO... current 18z temps are 35 at UNV and 35 at AOO

 

JST now reporting -FZRA

 

edit: QPF numbers pretty much run between a half inch to .75" by tomorrow morning for these areas

[MAG5035]

Precip underway down here in Altoona. Starting off as a rain and sleet mix.

[JamieOber]

FWIW... 12z Euro has 850mb temps stay below 0 for UNV/AOO/IPT... surface temps all close to 32-34 until tomorrow afternoon... also of note with this is UNV surface temp at 18z on Euro is 40 while 38 for AOO... current 18z temps are 35 at UNV and 35 at AOO

 

JST now reporting -FZRA

 

edit: QPF numbers pretty much run between a half inch to .75" by tomorrow morning for these areas

Just saw that. So....

 

GFS colder, Euro back to where it was....no idea what the hell this thing will do. 

 

 

 

Precip underway down here in Altoona. Starting off as a rain and sleet mix.

I was wondering what it would start as.

 

NWS backed off a bit, down to 1-3 here. Seems like most of it comes with this:

 

 

PERIOD OF HEAVIEST PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY A BAND OF STRONG700-850 MB WARM ADVECTION PROGRESSING RAPIDLY NORTHWARD THROUGHCENTRAL PA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE MARGINALTEMPERATURE PROFILES...THINK THIS STRONG FORCING SHOULD LEAD TORATES THAT SUPPORT A 2-3 HOUR PERIOD OF HEAVY WET SNOW ANDSLEET...WHICH WILL IMPACT THE RUSH HOUR.

[JamieOber]

For as much as I used to complain here (admittedly I was one of the worst offenders once, lol), I've seen a number of events perform better than expected for State College when I lived up there, and the events that seemed to overperform were the marginal type events like this one where UNV and AOO would thump very wet snow because of the high valley floors they are situated in. For IPT's case right on the Susquehanna, they might be in more trouble I would think but they could luck out as well. It's not ridiculously late or early season either, so the odds could be even better. It might be a lot of heartbreak too but that's the nature of the game.

 

As for other forums, one of the reasons I'm posting here again is because I'm sick of the bickering over on the NYC forum.

 

I-95 esp. from Philly north has no idea how lucky they've had it over the last decade, and I remind them of it quite a lot.

NYC forum...ugh.

 

My overriding point is we really don't know for sure what to expect over the next several weeks. Most likely is it will be below average temps but will it snow? 

[Laurel Highlands Wx]

It looks like temperatures are falling at least 2 to 4 degrees over near Pittsburgh as precip falls. With AOO and UNV at 36 it seems like temps should fall into that critical 32 to 34 range.

[djr5001]

It looks like temperatures are falling at least 2 to 4 degrees over near Pittsburgh as precip falls. With AOO and UNV at 36 it seems like temps should fall into that critical 32 to 34 range.

KAOO now reporting 33/26 and -FZRA

[sauss06]

40 here, but feels colder. and damp, very damp. I saw some reports from Franklin county of rain/sleet mix!

[Laurel Highlands Wx]

KAOO now reporting 33/26 and -FZRA

 

It seems according to traffic cams in Ebensburg and Cresson are Freezing Rain also.

[Itunis]

Very light rain falling

[djr5001]

40 here, but feels colder. and damp, very damp. I saw some reports from Franklin county of rain/sleet mix!

well NWS continues to keep a mention of less than an inch of snow accumulation for harrisburg possibly for a sleet potential at the start before the warming aloft pushes temps above freezing

[sauss06]

well NWS continues to keep a mention of less than an inch of snow accumulation for harrisburg possibly for a sleet potential at the start before the warming aloft pushes temps above freezing

i don't think that will happen honestly. even if it drops a couple degress ii doubt it helps.

[meteo]

Its a light rain/sleet mix here in altoona at this hour.

[Laurel Highlands Wx]

Sleet starting to mix with rain.

[sauss06]

i stand corrected, currently a rain/sleet mix in Harrisburg! and temp dropped 1 now at 39

[2001kx]

some very light precip starting here..temp 35

[Itstrainingtime]

It's raining. 41 degrees.

[Itstrainingtime]

Pingers now, down to 39.

[Itunis]

Are we looking at snow soon once everything is saturated and cooled off a bit, or will that have to wait until the heavier stuff CTP and Jamie mentioned moves through later? Seems quite close in regards to temps.