Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 This is what I've got.. may be an error somewhere. The 2003 storm not sure on.. NARR makes it look like mainly one event but that's a really long event. Obs have some breaks of a number of hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 the 2003 storm mostly fell the evening of 2/27...we got sun angled during the day and then it started sticking good right after dark....It was very heavy near dupont...we got raked for a while in the early evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Interesting info. Basically if you dont get a 2" snowfall at DCA by the middle of March you can forget about it. Only two events on that list past 3/9. DCA has 3 weeks left to score at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Hmm-- 6 per decade the past three decades. We've had none so far in the 2010's. If we go through a few more seasons without any, then I think we can add more details onto how our snow climatology has changed-- not just about the seasonal totals, but also the average length of our snow seasons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Hmm-- 6 per decade the past three decades. We've had none so far in the 2010's. If we go through a few more seasons without any, then I think we can add more details onto how our snow climatology has changed-- not just about the seasonal totals, but also the average length of our snow seasons. It looks like we are due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Mid February through mid-March 1993 was such a great stretch for the region, especially the north and west suburbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 44 at DCA60 Before DCA 1880s only 88-89 + Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Another streak. Luv me some lame a** s*****y streaks. How do you analyze severe? I need to know in 45 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Apparently it doesn't like to snow between 2/20 and 2/23 with any significance. That 4 day period adds up to roughly 4 months of winter season over 30 years with only 3 events. Considering February is the snowiest month according to monthly averages shows that most snow falls within the first 19 days, therefore further shortening the only month on the calender with less than 30 days. Nice job putting the chart together despite it being rather depressing to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This is what I've got.. may be an error somewhere. The 2003 storm not sure on.. NARR makes it look like mainly one event but that's a really long event. Obs have some breaks of a number of hours. snowafter220.gif In the years when we saw a march snowfall - were any of those years ENSO-neutral? Seems that enso neutral is the kiss of death for snow for N Virginia/DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 In the years when we saw a march snowfall - were any of those years ENSO-neutral? Seems that enso neutral is the kiss of death for snow for N Virginia/DCA I just did an analysis of El Nino, La Nina, and neutral years that turned up surprising results. Beginning with the winter of 1949-50, there have been 20 neutral winters prior to this season, with 21 Nino years and 22 Nina years. During the 20 prior neutral years at DCA, there has been a two-inch or greater snow event on or after February 20th 17 times, including multiple events in 1960, 1968, 1980, 1986, and 1993. Of these 17 events, 12 occurred in March, including multiple events in 1960 and 1968. In contrast, in the 21 Nino years, there have been only 16 such events, with nine occurring in March; and in the 22 Nina years, there have been only seven such events, with five occurring in March. So, history (at least since ENSO statistics have been kept) would indicate that there is a somewhat better chance of a 2+ inch storm occurring at DCA late in the season in a neutral year than in a Nino year, and a much better chance of such an event occurring in a neutral year than in a Nina year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 9, 2013 Share Posted March 9, 2013 I just did an analysis of El Nino, La Nina, and neutral years that turned up surprising results. Beginning with the winter of 1949-50, there have been 20 neutral winters prior to this season, with 21 Nino years and 22 Nina years. During the 20 prior neutral years at DCA, there has been a two-inch or greater snow event on or after February 20th 17 times, including multiple events in 1960, 1968, 1980, 1986, and 1993. Of these 17 events, 12 occurred in March, including multiple events in 1960 and 1968. In contrast, in the 21 Nino years, there have been only 16 such events, with nine occurring in March; and in the 22 Nina years, there have been only seven such events, with five occurring in March. So, history (at least since ENSO statistics have been kept) would indicate that there is a somewhat better chance of a 2+ inch storm occurring at DCA late in the season in a neutral year than in a Nino year, and a much better chance of such an event occurring in a neutral year than in a Nina year. While DCA's 2+inch snow drought has now reached 773 days with no end in sight, looking at the broader picture for both DCA and IAD indicates that ENSO-neutral years are more favorable for March snow than either Nino or Nina years. Below is a comparison of average and median March snow (in inches) for DCA since the beginning of detailed ENSO statistics (1949-50) and for both airports since the opening of Dulles (1962-63) and since the 1981-82 snow season: DCA Averages for Three Respective Periods: Neutral 2.6/1.8/1.7 Nino 1.9/1.5/0.3 Nina 1.6/1.4/1.5 DCA Medians for Three Respective Periods Neutral 0.7/0.7/0.2 Nino Trace/Trace/0.1 Nina 0.4/0.2/0.2 IAD Averages for Two Respective Periods Neutral 3.7/4.0 Nino 2.5/1.0 Nina 2.7/3.0 IAD Medians for Two Respective Periods Neutral 1.5/3.3 Nino 1.2/1.2 Nina 1.0/0.1 Is the greater March snow in neutral years in the DC area just a coincidence, or is there a good meteorological explanation for it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 26, 2013 Share Posted March 26, 2013 While DCA's 2+inch snow drought has now reached 773 days with no end in sight, looking at the broader picture for both DCA and IAD indicates that ENSO-neutral years are more favorable for March snow than either Nino or Nina years. Below is a comparison of average and median March snow (in inches) for DCA since the beginning of detailed ENSO statistics (1949-50) and for both airports since the opening of Dulles (1962-63) and since the 1981-82 snow season: DCA Averages for Three Respective Periods: Neutral 2.6/1.8/1.7 Nino 1.9/1.5/0.3 Nina 1.6/1.4/1.5 DCA Medians for Three Respective Periods Neutral 0.7/0.7/0.2 Nino Trace/Trace/0.1 Nina 0.4/0.2/0.2 IAD Averages for Two Respective Periods Neutral 3.7/4.0 Nino 2.5/1.0 Nina 2.7/3.0 IAD Medians for Two Respective Periods Neutral 1.5/3.3 Nino 1.2/1.2 Nina 1.0/0.1 Is the greater March snow in neutral years in the DC area just a coincidence, or is there a good meteorological explanation for it? Here are a few updated numbers (bolded) for neutral years, to reflect the March 25th storm. Pretty good disparity at IAD since 1981-82 for neutral years vs Nino years -- average March snow of 4.4 inches vs. only 1.0 inch. DCA Averages for Three Respective Periods (Since 1949/50, 1962-63, and 1981-82) Neutral 2.6/1.8/1.8 Nino 1.9/1.5/0.3 Nina 1.6/1.4/1.5 DCA Medians for Three Respective Periods Neutral 1.1/1.1/0.2 Nino Trace/Trace/0.1 Nina 0.4/0.2/0.2 IAD Averages for Two Respective Periods (Since 1962-63 and 1981-82) Neutral 3.9/4.4 Nino 2.5/1.0 Nina 2.7/3.0 IAD Medians for Two Respective Periods Neutral 1.5/3.5 Nino 1.2/1.2 Nina 1.0/0.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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