WhiteoutWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would say the chances are fairly good, given that the American models look much better at 500 MB than the sfc, and the sfc fields seem to be having issues to be honest, and the range we're at. The lack of consistency by all the models makes it hard to trust or discount any solution right now. It seems the "consensus" has flipped back and forth multiple times with this storm, from the very point it showed up on the Euro like 5 days ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 the early week clipper from the earlier runs is no where near as juicy as it was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I really don't think the EURO is going to change much...its within its bullseye range now. Furthermore, I do not think that the NAM and GFS are causes for concern as they look good aloft. I think most will agree that the issue here is those freakin precip bombs. I have a feeling that once those precip bombs go away, there will be a lot of people going "oh $****!" just my 1.5 cents Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest someguy Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If the ECMWF is anything like 12Z, I could care less what everything else shows, to be honest. pretty dumb view to have and I love the euro so Much folks think I married to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Atlas Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 DT, do you think its very surprising that the Euro showed what it did at 12z? I mean this is 72-84 hours out at the time of the run, and if it goes East 2nite, its going to be hard for me to trusti t again all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 pretty dumb view to have and I love the euro so Much folks think I married to it Ok fine, if the 00Z EURO is the same, and it verifies, we'll see who's right. If it's not the same, it doesn't matter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What time does the Euro come out? Very late, like 1:30. I will hopefully be asleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GGEM way OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GGEM way OTS. that bothers me more then the GFS/NAM because the GGEM was the second best 12z solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 that bothers me more then the GFS/NAM because the GGEM was the second best 12z solution It has also been the most inconsistent of all the modeling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Druff Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 So, correct me if I'm wrong, but... 1) We need a phase between a wave in the desert SW right now and a wave that's on an A380 somewhere over the Gulf of Alaska/NE Pacific at the moment. 2) We don't have very good measurements of what the wave in the PACNW is doing. Combine those two and we really have no f'ing clue what's going to happen because, right now, looking at the 00z/18z comparison by Don, 100 miles is the difference between 0" and 8"+... God, it sucks being a weather weenie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 It has also been the most inconsistent of all the modeling. Your optimism is a little odd, the euro is the best model but its not perfect and it has a bad run from time to time. It now has no support at all....NONE If things were reversed would you honestly not rather have the GFS/GGEM/NAM/UKMET/SREF all showing a huge monster blizzard and the euro OTS? As much as the euro is the better model I would feel much better with the reverse situation then this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Your optimism is a little odd, the euro is the best model but its not perfect and it has a bad run from time to time. It now has no support at all....NONE If things were reversed would you honestly not rather have the GFS/GGEM/NAM/UKMET/SREF all showing a huge monster blizzard and the euro OTS? As much as the euro is the better model I would feel much better with the reverse situation then this one. I would almost be more worried if the Euro were OTS and all other modeling were showing a blizzard at this range, yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 where are you looking? I'm showing the GEM only out to 36 hrs. You do realize that you have to actually do the math in your head to see what part of the run is out while its coming out right? It has been posted already in several threads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 where are you looking? I'm showing the GEM only out to 36 hrs. You do realize that you have to actually do the math in your head to see what part of the run is out while its coming out right? Phineas is correct, its well out to sea...you might want to double check sources before you criticize a post. Most people are not going to be giving false info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Your optimism is a little odd, the euro is the best model but its not perfect and it has a bad run from time to time. It now has no support at all....NONE If things were reversed would you honestly not rather have the GFS/GGEM/NAM/UKMET/SREF all showing a huge monster blizzard and the euro OTS? As much as the euro is the better model I would feel much better with the reverse situation then this one. There is actually a ton of support for the EC solution from both the GFS and NAM aloft. Ignore the surface relections at this time. Both made big improvements on the 00z run. Unless the euro takes a dive bomb tonight off the coast and changes continuity you can't go against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Phineas is correct, its well out to sea...you might want to double check sources before you criticize a post. Most people are not going to be giving false info. I wasn't criticizing...only asking for where he is getting that because the link I have is stuck at 36hrs. http://www.weatheroffice.gc.ca/model_forecast/global_e.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would almost be more worried if the Euro were OTS and all other modeling were showing a blizzard at this range, yes. One other issue, its one thing to choose the 0z euro guidance over all other 0z guidance...but that is not what you are doing here. You are choosing the 12z Euro output over all other 18z and then 0z model guidance. Of course we do not have statistical probabilities on that choice but I am pretty sure its not a statistically good move. If the 0z Euro comes in the same as 12z or further west then 12z then I might be with you...but I doubt that right now. My gut says the Euro will be more amplified then other guidance from 0z, I do think the upper levels looked better then the surface played out on the GFS and NAM, but I think it will be east of the 12z by a bit. I guess it depends on where you are how that is taken. If you live in Boston that is probably a win. If you live in DC that is probably the last straw that breaks the camels back of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 To have any expectations for the Euro, I would have had to see the GGEM show at least a mdt hit fo the I-95 crowd. I really have no expecations at this time. If one thinks about it, during the most recent event with the GL storm, the GFS was way SE, Euro way NW. Eventually they came to a mddleground. I suspect that this may be taking place. Perhaps the GFS is slightly too dry and the Euro is overly wet and aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GGEM looks interesting for interior NE if not all of NE...stalled out system vcty of Gulf of Maine that eventually throws precip all the way back into NYS into PA possibly. Not sure how realistic that is but didn't 12Z Euro indicate a pretty large deformation zone setting up over the interior of the northeast w/ pronounced dryslotting in So. NE? Seemed aggressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 a bit too much pessimism here...while the 0z GFS and NAM are both similar looking(odd) at the surface...they both do throw precip back inland and close to I-95...which is an improvement from their 18z runs. even tho the surface depiction is different from the Euro, in terms of track they both moved west some...complicated set up and lots left to be resolved obviously. Now if the Euro shifts east or is back OTS tonight well then maybe this one is done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 What expectations are there to have? Barring the fact that were 24 hours closer to the event, gfs has gone from storn to no storm to semi-storm, euro has gone from no storm to storn, while all the other models have done basically the same in some form or another... who knows? i dont have any expectations...this is certainly a chaotic and unique situation with the models trying to get a handle on this. its interesting regardless of what the outcome actually is. and if there is a storm it will be very difficult to give 'credit" to any model as they have all shown wide variations from run to run over the past week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 54 no surface reflection, flatter compared to 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 low east of nc at 60 compared to off nc/sc border at 12, weaker, blaher Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 1004 low well east at 72 compared to what 988 right off the delmarva coast earlier little or no precip north of nc/va border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 So much for the Euro being money in this range. I don't know why anyone said that. From what I remember the EURO sucks in the short range. It's better at the longer range. But I'm sure I'll get someone telling me how wrong I am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I don't know why anyone said that. From what I remember the EURO sucks in the short range. It's better at the longer range. But I'm sure I'll get someone telling me how wrong I am. It was always supposed to be deadly at hours 60-96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 this run is pretty terrible for everyone.. grazes SENE, .25 line hits outer islands almost to edge of cape edit: by 96 .25 touches CC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mencken_Fan Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Whopper of a snowstorm going on in the Western Desert. Vegas getting hammered. http://www.srh.noaa.gov/abq/ With upstream so busy, you'd think something interesting could get going over Texas tomorrow. Yea, nah, maybe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 terrible. Dr, No closes the door yet again. what a tease, seriously. such a flat wave coming off the SE coast, i guess the two prior runs werent a trend! Euro is so inconsistent, differently the most overrated model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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