Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No, this isn't true. Convective feedback is an issue with lower resolution models and result due to the more general convective parameterizations used in the model. Apparently you're at significant odds with am19psu then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 That and the NMM is not the best parametrization core available. Re: the GFS, and this me relying on my tropical background, the GFS upgrade in July greatly decreased the amount of convective feedback in that model. After the upgrade, I hardly ever saw it in the tropics this season. NCEP put together a writeup discussing the new GFS upgrade and they highlighted the noted major decrease in the GFS QPF bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 NCEP put together a writeup discussing the new GFS upgrade and they highlighted the noted major decrease in the GFS QPF bombs. That would be those lovely huge purple diamonds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 No, this isn't true. Convective feedback is an issue with lower resolution models and result due to the more general convective parameterizations used in the model. Yes, the old LFM had huge feedback bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 She's coming west. 18Z 0Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Close this run but still not going to do it. What a strange surface reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 GFS still OTS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 to my eyes if future runs of GFS show similiar upper level depiction I would expect more robust qpf up the coast than currently shown Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Close this run but still not going to do it. What a strange surface reflection. Defying the laws of physics once again by showing two lows. Note the streamlines around the low that is further NW. This SHOULD be the real low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is, again, more convective feedback. Focus on the strength and position of the vort max, not the surface reflection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 This is, again, more convective feedback. Focus on the strength and position of the vort max, not the surface reflection. Yeah, it seems like the GFS is showing convective feedback tonight as well. It seems like the NW low should be the correct low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah, it seems like the GFS is showing convective feedback tonight as well. It seems like the NW low should be the correct low. If this is the case, then it's a way better run then the 18Z and 12Z. Hopefully the Euro doesn't bail and stays on course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 UKMET is east: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 A secondary low does not = convective feedback necessarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Follow the Vort Max go 2.5 degree NE of it and you get the heavyest snows "DeGeorge" imperical rules of forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm At Sea Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 For those that live and die by the SREF (which I do ), the 21z run has really back off the possibility of decent snow from DC to NYC. It continues to show New England getting a decent snow event. This is really starting to look like DT's "Norfolk to BOS" snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WhiteoutWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Yeah, it seems like the GFS is showing convective feedback tonight as well. It seems like the NW low should be the correct low. Excuse my lack of knowledge on the subject... but how does convective feedback interfere with the evolution of the storm? Should the storm develop sooner and the precip shield be adjusted west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 A secondary low does not = convective feedback necessarily. Right, but I'm looking at the vort couplets over the Atlantic between T+48 and T+54. That said, they might be realistic if the Gulf s/w is more vigorous than I was expecting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 A secondary low does not = convective feedback necessarily. Of course not, but two lows right on top of each other like that usually do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Further west GFS track precip. field get strangely small and dry for this type of storm. Is this like the old LFM when the ocean was made of cement? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 So its Euro vs. everybody else? Canadian is close to EURO and this GFS trended slightly west from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Excuse my lack of knowledge on the subject... but how does convective feedback interfere with the evolution of the storm? Should the storm develop sooner and the precip shield be adjusted west? The whole model run being out of wack... it's producing TWO lows literally 50 miles apart from each other. If you look at the streamlines (the pale gray lines in the background on the ewall maps), they are wrapped nice and tight around the low center which is further NW. This should mean the low further NW is the correct low on this GFS run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Further west GFS track precip. field get strangely small and dry for this type of storm. Is this like the old LFM when the ocean was made of cement? I was thinking that too. The precipitation field seems ridiculously small for a low that is relatively strong and over relatively warm water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 All in all, more precipitation farther west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If the ECMWF is anything like 12Z, I could care less what everything else shows, to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 If the ECMWF is anything like 12Z, I could care less what everything else shows, to be honest. In honesty what do you think the chances are of that happening? Euro been flip flopping but, it's supposed to be in it's deadly range now right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 All in all, more precipitation farther west. That says it all. Just one more jump like that and I95 is looking at 3-5 at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 In honesty what do you think the chances are of that happening? Euro been flip flopping but, it's supposed to be in it's deadly range now right? I would say the chances are fairly good, given that the American models look much better at 500 MB than the sfc, and the sfc fields seem to be having issues to be honest, and the range we're at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternUSWX Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 I would say the chances are fairly good, given that the American models look much better at 500 MB than the sfc, and the sfc fields seem to be having issues to be honest, and the range we're at. Thanks, sounds good. I am interested to see what it says. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathervswife Posted December 17, 2010 Share Posted December 17, 2010 Mountains make a mockery out of our clipper next week. Nothing makes it over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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