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00Z Model Suite


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That and the NMM is not the best parametrization core available.

Re: the GFS, and this me relying on my tropical background, the GFS upgrade in July greatly decreased the amount of convective feedback in that model. After the upgrade, I hardly ever saw it in the tropics this season.

NCEP put together a writeup discussing the new GFS upgrade and they highlighted the noted major decrease in the GFS QPF bombs.

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Yeah, it seems like the GFS is showing convective feedback tonight as well. It seems like the NW low should be the correct low.

Excuse my lack of knowledge on the subject... but how does convective feedback interfere with the evolution of the storm? Should the storm develop sooner and the precip shield be adjusted west?

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Excuse my lack of knowledge on the subject... but how does convective feedback interfere with the evolution of the storm? Should the storm develop sooner and the precip shield be adjusted west?

The whole model run being out of wack... it's producing TWO lows literally 50 miles apart from each other. If you look at the streamlines (the pale gray lines in the background on the ewall maps), they are wrapped nice and tight around the low center which is further NW. This should mean the low further NW is the correct low on this GFS run.

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Further west GFS track precip. field get strangely small and dry for this type of storm. Is this like the old LFM when the ocean was made of cement?

I was thinking that too. The precipitation field seems ridiculously small for a low that is relatively strong and over relatively warm water.

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In honesty what do you think the chances are of that happening? Euro been flip flopping but, it's supposed to be in it's deadly range now right?

I would say the chances are fairly good, given that the American models look much better at 500 MB than the sfc, and the sfc fields seem to be having issues to be honest, and the range we're at.

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