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00Z Model Suite


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There is a pretty clear convective feedback issue here. With the consolidated vort max over the TN Valley and the vorticity generation east of HSE, latent heat release is contaminating. If you get rid of that, this is a fantastic run for everyone. I wouldn't worry about the sfc on the T+72 NAM.

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There is a pretty clear convective feedback issue here. With the consolidated vort max over the TN Valley and the vorticity generation east of HSE, latent heat release is contaminating. If you get rid of that, this is a fantastic run for everyone. I wouldn't worry about the sfc on the T+72 NAM.

Great point! At 84 thing bombs out for Maine, there was nothing close to any bomb at 18z. i was bummed like many this morning...but hoping again

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There is a pretty clear convective feedback issue here. With the consolidated vort max over the TN Valley and the vorticity generation east of HSE, latent heat release is contaminating. If you get rid of that, this is a fantastic run for everyone. I wouldn't worry about the sfc on the T+72 NAM.

It's clear the lack of data was a factor. WV Imagery suggested a stronger feature over the Pacific. Good run folks.

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There is a pretty clear convective feedback issue here. With the consolidated vort max over the TN Valley and the vorticity generation east of HSE, latent heat release is contaminating. If you get rid of that, this is a fantastic run for everyone. I wouldn't worry about the sfc on the T+72 NAM.

nice phase job on UA..thats all i was looking for

3 distinct pieces at 48hrs...gulf, MCI, MSP...I will take my chances with that UA setup

post-84-0-16178600-1292554726.gif

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A slight trend towards the west; I would only look up to the 60hr NAM after that the NAM is not very good. At 60 hours the 500 Vort max is starting to intensify and if you put the storm about 75-100 west you probility get the real forecast. I still think that there ia a decent chance PHL to BOS will get a snowstorm possibly a blizzard. Lets see how the GFS and ECMWF handles the new data.

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But that's just crazy...so because the GFS is run to 384 hours, and the EC is run out to 240 hours... the GFS has a longer "useful" lead time?

If you account for biases and get used to it, it probably does. But you have to account for ALL the biases and apart from the S & E bias, we can't be 100% sure of the new biases since the upgrade.

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There is a pretty clear convective feedback issue here. With the consolidated vort max over the TN Valley and the vorticity generation east of HSE, latent heat release is contaminating. If you get rid of that, this is a fantastic run for everyone. I wouldn't worry about the sfc on the T+72 NAM.

does the NAM suffer convective feedback issues to such a degree normally? I always thought that was more pronounced on the GFS.

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It should be more pronounced on a higher-resolution model, like the NAM.

That and the NMM is not the best parametrization core available.

Re: the GFS, and this me relying on my tropical background, the GFS upgrade in July greatly decreased the amount of convective feedback in that model. After the upgrade, I hardly ever saw it in the tropics this season.

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