dryslot Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Jerry yeah. Same story though one model locked in on it the others followed. Sadly the one that locked was the GFS so it was a little overamped. Others were too dry, Euro overshot for 1 run but not too bad. Pretty typical. The surprise was the RGEM/GGEM they were pretty terrible up until later yesterday. We've been close to a blowout #1 a couple of times. This one over performed vs expectations a 3-4 days ago but sans the CCB, is a bit of a bummer. Still though near 20", 4", and this one probably ends up 6-9" anyway....30+ on the cape in 7 days not bad. How they doing out towards HYA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Same thing here. Snowboard absolutely useless. Heavy snow for a while here. Band is finally moving out. Average of 3.5'' measured from spots in protected area and not including the 1'' yesterday, which was easy to measure on the board. Max gust today 38 mph. Temps 19.6 F. I will probably end up somewhere in the 3" range when all said and done for todays event , Tough one indeed John Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 How they doing out towards HYA Basically a blizzard. 1/4mi vis and over 30mph gusts since about 7am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 How they doing out towards HYA I don't know it's a little deceptive on the radar. The snow here now is still heavy but the radar lightened a bit. The last PNS had them at 4" and that seems reasonable plus a few inches now. I suspect 6-10" and in reality 6-8, we'd only see the 2 extra with prolonged banding which seems unlikely right now. Truthfully I think this is busting low in SE MA over through the Cape compared to what most thought including the NWS. We just had almost no NW flank influence, it's all been banding. Plus we did lose that 1-2" early/late in that first weenie band. I'm going to add the 1/2" that coated the roads last night to the total as I suppose that's what you're supposed to do but will notate it as such. I was probably in line with the SREF probabilities last night. I think they had 1 in 3 for 12+ here, about 40-45% for 8+. That's the #s I felt going in, I'd put the chances at 8+ at about 5% right now. My instinct last night late in the day early evening was that this wasn't coming together fast enough for the above %'s and my hopes. I should have stuck with that thought, but instead took the wait and see and enjoyed the afternoon/evening with the kids. It never did pull together in time to get the CCB near us. And that's the rub. If we had gotten even glanced by it as the models indicated that .2 or .4" in QPF would have made those SREF probs a reality. Not complaining at all, what a snowy week here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Basically a blizzard. 1/4mi vis and over 30mph gusts since about 7am. I don't know it's a little deceptive on the radar. The snow here now is still heavy but the radar lightened a bit. Truthfully I think this is busting low in SE MA over through the Cape compared to what most thought including the NWS. We just had almost no NW flank influence, it's all been banding. Plus we did lose that 1-2" early/late in that first weenie band. I'm going to add the 1/2" that coated the roads last night to the total as I suppose that's what you're supposed to do but will notate it as such. I was probably in line with the SREF probabilities last night. I think they had 1 in 3 for 12+ here, about 40-45% for 8+. That's the #s I felt going in, I'd put the chances at 8+ at about 5% right now. My instinct last night late in the day early evening was that this wasn't coming together fast enough for the above %'s and my hopes. I should have stuck with that thought, but instead took the wait and see and enjoyed the afternoon/evening with the kids. It never did pull together in time to get the CCB near us. And that's the rub. If we had gotten even glanced by it as the models indicated that .2 or .4" in QPF would have made those SREF probs a reality. Not complaining at all, what a snowy week here. I may bust out there, I think i went 9.5" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 BTW the 4km NAM did well. it was lighter in general. It still drops .1 to .25 after 1pm today here in a 3 hour period. Then another .1 after 4pm. If that happens we'll easily break 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I may bust out there, I think i went 9.5" I added another post, looking at the high res stuff if it's right you may not bust. I figured 8-10/12 around here. If it snows as the 4km NAM forecasts the next 3-5 hours we'll pick up another 2-4" and no doubt break 8. The 4km NAM shows the Cape getting your 6-10" This is the "lighter" snows right now, still easily 1/4 of a mile or less. Nice dendrites too, almost appears to be some OE influence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 BTW the 4km NAM did well. it was lighter in general. It still drops .1 to .25 after 1pm today here in a 3 hour period. Then another .1 after 4pm. If that happens we'll easily break 8". I'd love to know the actual qpf that fell. ASOS are grossly underestimating at this point. LOL, KTAN only reporting .05" today. I have ~6". That's like 120:1. I don't even think that's possible. Per BOX radar estimates around .3" fell here. That's like 20:1, which is more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 BTW the 4km NAM did well. it was lighter in general. It still drops .1 to .25 after 1pm today here in a 3 hour period. Then another .1 after 4pm. If that happens we'll easily break 8". That little finger oriented NW-SE is quite slow to move off even as the main area goes. That's going to add 1-2 to totals in the BOS/PYM locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Basically a blizzard. 1/4mi vis and over 30mph gusts since about 7am. AIT. Nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I added another post, looking at the high res stuff if it's right you may not bust. I figured 8-10/12 around here. If it snows as the 4km NAM forecasts the next 3-5 hours we'll pick up another 2-4" and no doubt break 8. The 4km NAM shows the Cape getting your 6-10" This is the "lighter" snows right now, still easily 1/4 of a mile or less. Nice dendrites too, almost appears to be some OE influence. That's the only area i went high on totals, I had 6" in BOS so it will be close there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 OT but Valdez has had a very snowy February so it's not necessarily true that when they rock we suffer. 81 inches in the bank since 2/1 and a blizzard watch flying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 That little finger oriented NW-SE is quite slow to move off even as the main area goes. That's going to add 1-2 to totals in the BOS/PYM locations. It will likely just erode/evaporate away as the DP continue to drop on the NW flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 AIT. Nice. Yeah, Phil posted it on FB. Check out the obs. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KHYA/2013/2/17/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 That's the only area i went high on totals, I had 6" in BOS so it will be close there Yeah I didn't say much for other than my little area. Was expecting at least 8", it's going to be close. 5.5" in Brewster, 5" to my west in New Bedford. We're going to need another 1-3" today to get comfortably into the 7-9" slot. Yeah, Phil posted it on FB. Check out the obs. http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KHYA/2013/2/17/DailyHistory.html?req_city=NA&req_state=NA&req_statename=NA Yeah I believe it. It's probably been close to that here all morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 what a beast on satelite this thing is .....beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 If its 18" no problem, That stiil was the best pic of all, I think it was back in 2010 a poster from NJ took a pic of his snow measurement and the yard stick was upside down........ Did you tattle to MRG that we were joking around about his snow YTD? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Did you tattle to MRG that we were joking around about his snow YTD? Yeah he laughed it off, Obiviously you missed the ALY map the other day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Still snowing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yeah he laughed it offAnd then sent me a nasty email. Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Need to take the dog into the woods......deep winter but I'm lazy and it's cold and snowing out ..lol. My favorite wx but I'm warm indoors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 And then sent me a nasty email. Thanks LOL, he gets so defensive when you say GC has no snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 LOL, he gets so defensive when you say GC has no snow. What do you have? Logan reported 5.1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Just measured. 5.7 to about 7" in several different spots. Will hit some woods in a bit. Confident with about 6.2" right now at 1pm with common readings being in the 6.1 to 6.3 range. The 1/2" that fell late yesterday is gone, don't know if that's included in the storm total or not. Normally I wouldn't but I suspect most would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 LOL, he gets so defensive when you say GC has no snow. In some places over there they don't.....lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 What do you have? Logan reported 5.1". They aren't done....maybe will make 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 LOL, he gets so defensive when you say GC has no snow.He said some very mean things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 What do you have? Logan reported 5.1". I'm at work. Probably close to that. My guess is that it likely is more, but impossible to measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 How did you find out the Logan number? Link? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Logan had over 2 hours of 2" per hour snows. It likely is more than 5.1, but tough to measure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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