tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 The other element on the soundings that no one has mentioned yet is the "seeder feeder" possibility, esp. for folks to our south who benefit from the 700mb s/w. The moist layer way up there in cirrus land could help produce snowflakes. I definitely think there will be some suprises tomorrow from m/d line on south. Models always kill the precip to fast. Its like the late january event? Where models killed it oast mdt but majority of the area got 1-3 inches of snow. That was the friday it took adam an hr 15 to go 5 miles lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Nice interior hit @ 105-120 for Pa on the 18z GFS. Still, the euro and GFS couldn't look any more different with the h5 evolution leading up to next week. yea the pocs to susquehanna valleu on north and west do well. The bl is warm around here, doesn't help the 925mb low comes close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Dew point at TTN is 13 degrees F. Will take some major WAA is scour this out. NWS predicting 20F tonite but it may go lower with the winds calming. Significant precip isn't likely to arrive (unless the juicy 12Z NAM was right) until Saturday morning. Till then its piddly dribbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm liking your optimism for the Mid Atlantic (NC to MD). The soundings are going to look funny with this one because if you don't have ample lift, it will appear to be an icy sounding or even rain down there. But, snow will be made, I think, properly with a shot of decent VVs...especially during the first half of the event. In between bands or convective showers, yeah snowflakes won't be made properly or temps will warm aloft and precip type changes. Yeah and maybe this ends up being a situation similar to what ray mentioned in part 1 of 1/26/11, where the models severely underestimate what is capable of reaching the ground..I remember you teaching me a little sounding lesson after that one with VV's in a ertain layer of the atmosphere...then again, that was a winter where like tony mentioned, you get a low within 500 miles of you and it finds a way to snow (central NJ on northeast in that winter) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Ah, yeah that makes more sense. I WISH I had flown back for that one, but work prevented it... The best storms at TTN over the last 6 years have been when I was on midnight shifts and had no realistic way of getting off work (2/10/10 and 1/26/11), so if that trend holds you can expect the next potential big one to be sometime between March 5th and March 12th ahh true I remember you missing a lot of the big ones of late, but also recall you nailing a return for one of the better ones too. I'll never forget waking up at midnight during part 2 of 1/26-27/11, thinking i was going to be able to drive into work after that one was finished. It was the heaviest snow ive seen, measured 8" in a 2 hour period as i was trying to get a head start at shoveling...my street wasnt plowed until noon the next day..2nd worst that winter to the boxing day storm. Those bigger mercer county hits have been fewer and further between than the lucky monmouth county of late..its been downrght ridiculous how many 10"+ snows there have been here, many of which have managed to spare further west areas. 11 storms 10"+ since 12/30/2000 in holmdel to be exact...a few more in the 7-10 inch range. I missed about half of those by the way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 ahh true I remember you missing a lot of the big ones of late, but also recall you nailing a return for one of the better ones too. I'll never forget waking up at midnight during part 2 of 1/26-27/11, thinking i was going to be able to drive into work after that one was finished. It was the heaviest snow ive seen, measured 8" in a 2 hour period as i was trying to get a head start at shoveling...my street wasnt plowed until noon the next day..2nd worst that winter to the boxing day storm. I made trips for 12/19/2009, 2/6/2010, 2/25/2010, and 10/29/2011. I just happened to be home for Christmas at the same time as 12/26/2010, so that wasn't a special trip, just luck. Out of all those I was around for, I actually consider 10/29/2011 to be the most successful trip, being a tricky situation with the rain/snow line forecast to be so close to TTN but also borderline historic. I ended up giving it better than 50% odds of an historic October event (2.6" or more qualified) and made the trip. Ended up with 3.2" and the biggest TTN snowfall in October on record ("unofficially" since no official records are kept any longer). So, just based on its historicness, I think that was the best call I ever made. For 12/19/2009 I wanted at least 10". I just *barely* got that (exactly 10") so it was marginally successful. I wanted to see more than that for the trip on 2/6/2010, and ended up with 10.4", so that was also just barely "successful". However, it was painful to be forced to return for work on 2/8 and look back as they got 17.6" on 2/10... I still look back at that event and cringe about how I just missed it. After missing that, I really wanted to see a big dump on 2/25, but only had 8.2", so I considered that trip a failure... if I had known they'd get ripped off like that I would've stayed in Elko. I was hoping Boxing Day would make up for it but TTN was also relatively ripped off... EWR had over 24" and even PHL had more than 12", but TTN just barely squeaked out 10.1". If I hadn't been around already and had made a special trip for Boxing Day, I'm not sure I would've been happy with the results. I (and of course many others) underestimated 1/26/2011 and thus I probably wouldn't have planned to head back for that one, so its probably just as well I was working mids anyway. It might've been worse to be sitting at my apartment here in Elko and watch them get plastered, digesting the fact that I could've made the trip but didn't. TTN had 15.2" on 1/26/2011 so like I mentioned, the second best (behind 2/10/10) since I've been out here in Elko. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well PennDOT is taking tonight very seriously. All roads are brined, we spent the morning fixing chains, and we are getting loaded. Crews on standby around the clock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well WOMMMMMP on the DC shot this morning. You are completely useless NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well WOMMMMMP on the DC shot this morning. You are completely useless NAM Insert ray's nam picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well WOMMMMMP on the DC shot this morning. You are completely useless NAM I honestly don't know why anyone uses it for synoptic forecasting. It's atrocious compared to the global models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Quick question -- I work for a school an have input on dismissals. Are we looking at frozen precipitation arriving before school dismissal time 2:00-3:00? Or should we be ok. This is for the Berks county area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Quick question -- I work for a school an have input on dismissals. Are we looking at frozen precipitation arriving before school dismissal time 2:00-3:00? Or should we be ok. This is for the Berks county area. should be fine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dssbss Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 22, 2013 Author Share Posted February 22, 2013 I'm out on the barrier islands this morning but got a chance to lol at the last few posts. My medium range forecast and storm match were a fail but at least my short term "meh" was better. Haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Insert ray's nam picture Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Heading to Poconos in a few....should be a fun weekend with snow, ice pellets, freezing rain, rain and of course my favorite freezing fog. Crunchy at best.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Well PennDOT is taking tonight very seriously. All roads are brined, we spent the morning fixing chains, and we are getting loaded. Crews on standby around the clock Thank you - I love to hear this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 I made trips for 12/19/2009, 2/6/2010, 2/25/2010, and 10/29/2011. I just happened to be home for Christmas at the same time as 12/26/2010, so that wasn't a special trip, just luck. Out of all those I was around for, I actually consider 10/29/2011 to be the most successful trip, being a tricky situation with the rain/snow line forecast to be so close to TTN but also borderline historic. I ended up giving it better than 50% odds of an historic October event (2.6" or more qualified) and made the trip. Ended up with 3.2" and the biggest TTN snowfall in October on record ("unofficially" since no official records are kept any longer). So, just based on its historicness, I think that was the best call I ever made. For 12/19/2009 I wanted at least 10". I just *barely* got that (exactly 10") so it was marginally successful. I wanted to see more than that for the trip on 2/6/2010, and ended up with 10.4", so that was also just barely "successful". However, it was painful to be forced to return for work on 2/8 and look back as they got 17.6" on 2/10... I still look back at that event and cringe about how I just missed it. After missing that, I really wanted to see a big dump on 2/25, but only had 8.2", so I considered that trip a failure... if I had known they'd get ripped off like that I would've stayed in Elko. I was hoping Boxing Day would make up for it but TTN was also relatively ripped off... EWR had over 24" and even PHL had more than 12", but TTN just barely squeaked out 10.1". If I hadn't been around already and had made a special trip for Boxing Day, I'm not sure I would've been happy with the results. I (and of course many others) underestimated 1/26/2011 and thus I probably wouldn't have planned to head back for that one, so its probably just as well I was working mids anyway. It might've been worse to be sitting at my apartment here in Elko and watch them get plastered, digesting the fact that I could've made the trip but didn't. TTN had 15.2" on 1/26/2011 so like I mentioned, the second best (behind 2/10/10) since I've been out here in Elko. That snowicane in late Feb 2010 was a frustrating and perplexing one for me as well. If you recall, we absolutely had the qpf amounts further east in monmouth county. It snowed heavily the entire day but it was 33º. Picked up a quick 5" in the morning and then it just stopped accumulating, even on existing snowpack lol..I ended the daytime with pretty much the same amount as NYC ~6". Then the colder part of the storm happened overnight, and for whatever reason, i only managed another 6" with that while NYC somehow tallied up their total to 20". i also was home with mono, sooo yeah lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
White_Mtn_Wx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Heading to Poconos in a few....should be a fun weekend with snow, ice pellets, freezing rain, rain and of course my favorite freezing fog. Crunchy at best.... Nice SP. We're heading to Lake Placid for a weekend hike of Algonquin. We should be met with 3-6" of powder, hopefully clearing skies for summitting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fsu_wxgirl Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Freezing rain advisory issued for Western Chester County northward. Valid tonight 10pm through tomorrow at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Big Jims Videos Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 five large cotton balls fell from the sky here in Ephrata 10 minutes ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 That snowicane in late Feb 2010 was a frustrating and perplexing one for me as well. If you recall, we absolutely had the qpf amounts further east in monmouth county. It snowed heavily the entire day but it was 33º. Picked up a quick 5" in the morning and then it just stopped accumulating, even on existing snowpack lol..I ended the daytime with pretty much the same amount as NYC ~6". Then the colder part of the storm happened overnight, and for whatever reason, i only managed another 6" with that while NYC somehow tallied up their total to 20". i also was home with mono, sooo yeah lol. Oh yeah I do remember how it changed over but never got down to freezing. Painful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChescoWx Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Light Snow here in NW Chester County Temp 32.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 34 here with some flurries Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JERSEYSNOWROB Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Wifey said it's snowing very lightly back home in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
penndotguy Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Dosen't look like much on radar yet, looks like Pendot went above and beyond today with the brine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Cloudy - 33. Had a few flurries earlier, then a 15 min period of sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SP Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 On the drive to the cabin, on RT 78 we encountered, as my kids described, dippin dots falling out of the sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted February 22, 2013 Share Posted February 22, 2013 Wifey said it's snowing very lightly back home in Marlboro, NJ Monmouth County A few flakes here too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 23, 2013 Share Posted February 23, 2013 Nam says partly sunny tomorrow! Lol. Barely any precip Into the area. .01-.25 only. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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