HM Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 The GFS family seems painfully slow with the entire evolution. Let's see if the 12z runs can trend faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 great find on the analog...I did not recall this event one bit, and the snowfall map will explain why lol screw the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 great find on the analog...I did not recall this event one bit, and the snowfall map will explain why lol screw the gfs LOL thanks man. Yeah I know this isn't exactly the most popular analog but it shows the possibility we are dealing with here (marginal to unfavorable temperature profiles with a unique blocking setup). All of the other years at one time or another had something similar but the evolution (when broken down to the day) wasn't quite like what's being modeled ahead. The closest one that I found anyway seems to be 2007. If you get a chance, check out the other years and see if you like anything. I could have very well missed something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 LOL thanks man. Yeah I know this isn't exactly the most popular analog but it shows the possibility we are dealing with here (marginal to unfavorable temperature profiles with a unique blocking setup). All of the other years at one time or another had something similar but the evolution (when broken down to the day) wasn't quite like what's being modeled ahead. The closest one that I found anyway seems to be 2007. If you get a chance, check out the other years and see if you like anything. I could have very well missed something. Just looking at NARR for all of the years beyond 1980, can definitely see the similarities in each one, but 2007 is far and beyond the best. It's interesting how you can see glimpses of certains years in how this winter is playing out...06-07 is one of them that have shown glimpses, especially in how the temperatures have played out Dec-Feb (though the patterns have their striking differences too obviously). Interesting to note that the NAO blocking which developed in the final stretch of Feb 2007 broke down in early March. Yet, as you pointed out, that month ended up not being as straight forward a blow torch in the northeast like tropical forcing would have suggested back in Feb. As far as I could tell out of the earlier years, 1952 seemed like a solid match, 1977 seemed decent, and an honorable mention for '69 since that analog has been interesting all fall/winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Just looking at NARR for all of the years beyond 1980, can definitely see the similarities in each one, but 2007 is far and beyond the best. It's interesting how you can see glimpses of certains years in how this winter is playing out...06-07 is one of them that have shown glimpses, especially in how the temperatures have played out Dec-Feb (though the patterns have their striking differences too obviously). Interesting to note that the NAO blocking which developed in the final stretch of Feb 2007 broke down in early March. Yet, as you pointed out, that month ended up not being as straight forward a blow torch in the northeast like tropical forcing would have suggested back in Feb. As far as I could tell out of the earlier years, 1952 seemed like a solid match, 1977 seemed decent, and an honorable mention for '69 since that analog has been interesting all fall/winter Notice in the Feb 07' setup, the initial wave came eastward and had more of a push compared with the modeling currently. The secondary southern wave, therefore, couldn't amplify. Modeling right now is sort of weak / north with the first "push" while the secondary wave does the amplifying (produces coastal low). It is still interesting that the GFS wants to precipitate with the first one before the coastal. It has a similar looking temperature profile where you could argue that the majority falls as rain across MD or ice, but initially could wet bulb / snow. If something more formidable can come eastward and enhance the vertical motion, a lot more of that precip in MD / DC will fall as wintry Friday morning / early PM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 In fact, after a closer look (12z GFS and 00z ECMWF), I find it interesting that both are plenty cold/dry enough Friday for snow from N-C VA to NJ/PA. There is already a hint of frontogen / moisture on the modeling which swings from N-C VA FRI AM to our area by evening with warm air advection. There could be an interesting period of accumulating snow/sleet for the Mid Atlantic with this before the weekend coastal low setup and warmer mid levels arrive.<br /><br />Obviously, the 2007 setup had stronger dynamics/better moisture than what's being modeled for Friday. But, I find it interesting that there are similarities showing up and the GFS definitely is suggesting a quick round of accumulation over N VA-MD before temps aloft warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 In fact, after a closer look (12z GFS and 00z ECMWF), I find it interesting that both are plenty cold/dry enough Friday for snow from N-C VA to NJ/PA. There is already a hint of frontogen / moisture on the modeling which swings from N-C VA FRI AM to our area by evening with warm air advection. There could be an interesting period of accumulating snow/sleet for the Mid Atlantic with this before the weekend coastal low setup and warmer mid levels arrive.<br /><br />Obviously, the 2007 setup had stronger dynamics/better moisture than what's being modeled for Friday. But, I find it interesting that there are similarities showing up and the GFS definitely is suggesting a quick round of accumulation over N VA-MD before temps aloft warm. the 12z euro was pretty bullish on this yesterday. Brought in general .2-.4 of frozen qpf to the region. The next tuesday timeframe looks interesting as well. Seems like most models have a decent high pressure nosing down then one storm cuts west and redevelops to the south. Faster the redevelop obviously the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 In fact, after a closer look (12z GFS and 00z ECMWF), I find it interesting that both are plenty cold/dry enough Friday for snow from N-C VA to NJ/PA. There is already a hint of frontogen / moisture on the modeling which swings from N-C VA FRI AM to our area by evening with warm air advection. There could be an interesting period of accumulating snow/sleet for the Mid Atlantic with this before the weekend coastal low setup and warmer mid levels arrive.<br /><br />Obviously, the 2007 setup had stronger dynamics/better moisture than what's being modeled for Friday. But, I find it interesting that there are similarities showing up and the GFS definitely is suggesting a quick round of accumulation over N VA-MD before temps aloft warm. Front end looks like best shot in southern areas. Could end up similar to 2007. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 the 12z euro was pretty bullish on this yesterday. Brought in general .2-.4 of frozen qpf to the region. The next tuesday timeframe looks interesting as well. Seems like most models have a decent high pressure nosing down then one storm cuts west and redevelops to the south. Faster the redevelop obviously the better. Front end looks like best shot in southern areas. Could end up similar to 2007. There is definitely potential on the front-end of both Friday and the midweek next week systems. Of course, each passing day we will lose a little bit more of the true Arctic source. Next week is basically leftover/stale cold air and it will get worse into March. It is still sufficient for snow but not quite the same as this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 weenie map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 What, they couldn't fit DC in that map too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 What, they couldn't fit DC in that map too? even they have come to realize it just doesn't snow at DCA/BWI anymore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 12z euro continues the threat for a couple inches late friday...It looked pretty good in western pa then it got carved up like a turkey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 for the coastal aspects it gets it going to late for us with limited precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 GFS went bonkers on the 24-25th time frame/coastal.... but did some fubnky things with convection/qpf maxima down south hours 72-78. Will post relevant images as they come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 ^looks warm at surface, late development? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 ^looks warm at surface, late development? and at 850 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 26th= apps runner on 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 ^looks warm at surface, late development?FOr us, yes. But its a weird solution. But verbatim, all of EPA/SE PA would have temp issues most of the storm. As it bombs, and heads to 40/70. some would see a changeover. that's verbatim of course. ANyhow, im not buying this run with that Funky QPF maxima down south. @ 72-80 hrs.*sorry for my terrible grammar... WHEW!* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NaoPos Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 6z GFS continues to be pretty bullish on the coastal Low development/ However, the low reamins weak to our latitude, and floods the BL with warmth and cold rain! It starts cranking at 40N, but by then, its moving out, the CCB develops over the jack potted areas of the earlier Blzzard. EUro tends to agree with that. Still not out of the realm of possibilities that the NW areas see snow @ some point, but if I lived along thr coastal plain, I wouldn't get my hopes up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 This storm is following the winter pattern. SE/Caribbean High, primary track to GL, blocking too weak for MA, best snows N+E. Even in this more favorable pattern have not been able to lower heights enough in the SE.for a MA snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 To be honest, I'm almost afraid to post in the Mid Atlantic forum because of how desperate the snow fans have become. I'm nervous to say it but I still think there is a 2007-like signal showing up Friday afternoon for N VA-MD-DC. It's not quite the same strength and doesn't have the same amount of moisture, but there is a shot of decent VVs/snow growth during the afternoon before the profiles warm aloft. Also, the low levels would wet bulb down during the snow to allow for some accumulation. If you just glanced at Friday, you would think it's no big deal...and maybe that's right. But the GFS/NAM continue to suggest a possible quick shot of accumulating wet snow down there, IMO. I love the Mount Laurel split on the models right now, haha... then northern suburbs benefit with the developing coastal possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 To be honest, I'm almost afraid to post in the Mid Atlantic forum because of how desperate the snow fans have become. I'm nervous to say it but I still think there is a 2007-like signal showing up Friday afternoon for N VA-MD-DC. It's not quite the same strength and doesn't have the same amount of moisture, but there is a shot of decent VVs/snow growth during the afternoon before the profiles warm aloft. Also, the low levels would wet bulb down during the snow to allow for some accumulation. If you just glanced at Friday, you would think it's no big deal...and maybe that's right. But the GFS/NAM continue to suggest a possible quick shot of accumulating wet snow down there, IMO. I love the Mount Laurel split on the models right now, haha... then northern suburbs benefit with the developing coastal possibly. And like clockwork, the 12z euro is all over your dc mini-thump friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 20, 2013 Author Share Posted February 20, 2013 And like clockwork, the 12z euro is all over your dc mini-thump friday Timing is sort of important (I guess it can't be as slow as the very wrong NAM solution) but what's more important here are the VVs. I think if we develop a nice band of mid level VVs with marginal profiles, it would come down as mostly snow before any warm up aloft. I'm not worried about the low levels with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 The dews should be low still with this last piece of arctic air coming in today/preceding it, and youll be happy to hear the shot comes in between 12z and 18z friday on this euro run...its a modest 0.1-0.2" qpf shot verbatim, but its there nonetheless...it dies before reaching further northeast towards you (naturally) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 PS, another 1-2 feet for new england with the coastal on both gfs/euro now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 20, 2013 Share Posted February 20, 2013 PS, another 1-2 feet for new england with the coastal on both gfs/euro now Snowstorms are similar to Feb 1969 not sure if other characteristics match.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 HM's fron end thump for especially the dc area is alive and well. Actually produces a couple of inches in the philly area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJwinter23 Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not sure how the front end stuff will end up tomorrow, but for any snow-starved individuals looking to see some fireworks, check out whats happening in the Kansas City area today. they are getting absolutely crushed by thundersnow right now...Tons of lightning strikes on the kansas city radar. The constant freezing rain t-storm action in sw missouri with temps in the 20s is pretty sweet too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJ_Ken Posted February 21, 2013 Share Posted February 21, 2013 Not sure how the front end stuff will end up tomorrow, but for any snow-starved individuals looking to see some fireworks, check out whats happening in the Kansas City area today. they are getting absolutely crushed by thundersnow right now...Tons of lightning strikes on the kansas city radar. The constant freezing rain t-storm action in sw missouri with temps in the 20s is pretty sweet too Yeah, KC just got 2" of snow in the last hour with heavy snow still falling. If that radar is any indication (and it is not just showing sleet really well), it could keep on coming down at that rate for KC and much of northwestern and north central MO for hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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