HM Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 General pattern match techniques (poorly done haha) for late Feb into early Mar bring up the following years (most are a stretch and I may be missing some): 1952, 1958, 1959 (slow), 1960 (meh), 1966, 1969, 1975 (meh), 1977, 1981, 1987, 1993, 1994 (terrible pac), 1996 (briefly), 1998, 1999, 2004, 2007 and 2010. Surprisingly, you don't have to go back too far in time to find a storm setup like what's being modeled on 2/21-22. The amazing match happened in 2007 on 2/25-27. Assuming the NWP is somewhat close to reality, the match at 500mb is pretty remarkable... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us0225.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us0226.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us0227.php This is what it did around here: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2007/25-Feb-07.html It seems like our upcoming situation will have more cold to work with but both 2007 and this year have very similar things going on. If this match has any merit, this will clearly be the best threat for the Mid Atlantic yet (esp. DC area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 General pattern match techniques (poorly done haha) for late Feb into early Mar bring up the following years (most are a stretch and I may be missing some): 1952, 1958, 1959 (slow), 1960 (meh), 1966, 1969, 1975 (meh), 1977, 1981, 1987, 1993, 1994 (terrible pac), 1996 (briefly), 1998, 1999, 2004, 2007 and 2010. Surprisingly, you don't have to go back too far in time to find a storm setup like what's being modeled on 2/21-22. The amazing match happened in 2007 on 2/25-27. Assuming the NWP is somewhat close to reality, the match at 500mb is pretty remarkable... http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us0225.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us0226.php http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/NARR/2007/us0227.php This is what it did around here: http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/2007/25-Feb-07.html It seems like our upcoming situation will have more cold to work with but both 2007 and this year have very similar things going on. If this match has any merit, this will clearly be the best threat for the Mid Atlantic yet (esp. DC area). nice post...we love that storm here...thanks for bringing it up....It is the 1/25/00 version we always bring up when something thumps us and is supposed to change over....Of course it never changed over here. just 4-5" of heavy wet daytime snow that stuck everywhere. Howard called it...said we would never change over before it shut off and he was right...models had us mixing/changing over....always loved that 500mb map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 nice post...we love that storm here...thanks for bringing it up....It is the 1/25/00 version we always bring up when something thumps us and is supposed to change over....Of course it never changed over here. just 4-5" of heavy wet daytime snow that stuck everywhere. Howard called it...said we would never change over before it shut off and he was right...models had us mixing/changing over....always loved that 500mb map Thanks. I was looking for some feedback on your area. The models of course are going to change but the main players involved with 2/21-22 seem to link up pretty well with 2007. All of the other years had these general features at one time or another from Feb 20-Mar 10 but none looked as good as 07. It is just an unusual setup! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Thanks. I was looking for some feedback on your area. The models of course are going to change but the main players involved with 2/21-22 seem to link up pretty well with 2007. All of the other years had these general features at one time or another from Feb 20-Mar 10 but none looked as good as 07. It is just an unusual setup! here is your feedback...4.25" of midday wet paste... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm concerned about the furition of this eventual system. The CAD signal is marginal at best unless something drastic changes or a secondary low deepens south of the area. Looks like another sheared winter 2013-esque storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nice picture. And you'll get 2 shots at it in the 2/21-26 period, assuming the -NAO block lasts through then (looking likely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blinkers88 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm buying my milk and bread this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJHurricane Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 thanks HM....always love the balance of realistic expectations and the further potential in your thoughts....as for the "beyond" how far out do you think we should watch for this scenario? Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 A good match. DC benefited nicely from CAD but the warm air advanced faster into this region than the precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Might snow in March (of course) but this could be the last really good threat for winter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GGEM hit the area pretty damn good for this storm on last night's 00z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Hi, HM...I've occasionally followed your posts and ideas, and appreciate your insight. Good stuff. Question on next week's possible system. Are you concerned about this just turning into a sheared out mess with little or nothing in the end? The models (GFS especially, I think) have been showing that now for a few cycles since yesterday afternoon. There's been tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth in the Mid-Atlantic forum (where I usually hang out, since I'm from that region) over this. I think regardless of how things go, we could be in for a commuting disaster on Friday morning. Even with the relatively light precip, the 2-m temps verbatim are below freezing through much of the morning. And as everyone knows, it doesn't take much. Oh, and I really liked that Feb. 25, 2007 event! A nice surprise, when it looked like we'd get mostly ice then rain. I got ~5" in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of DC, it was very picturesque with snow sticking to everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 fwiw the 12z euro has .25-.5 qpf for fri night into sat morning as snow or snow to ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 fwiw the 12z euro has .25-.5 qpf for fri night into sat morning as snow or snow to ice. Less than that some places but yeah there's a chance... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 washed away by rain sunday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Less than that some places but yeah there's a chance... yea i have it mainly in the phl-lns- rdg-abe on east territory Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 yea i have it mainly in the phl-lns- rdg-abe on east territory I only guestimated ~0.20" frozen at TTN... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I only guestimated ~0.20" frozen at TTN... Yea I don't have actual qpf numbers. My maps show two frames of .1-.25 in that zone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 If the qpf is not above .5 ----not worth mentioning. Wet snow will be gone by sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harbourton Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 I only guestimated ~0.20" frozen at TTN... .20 frozen and five days to work with - I'll take it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 If the qpf is not above .5 ----not worth mentioning. Wet snow will be gone by sunday. Snow is snow. If I was back there I wouldn't mind it, for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 18, 2013 Share Posted February 18, 2013 Growing consensus for a threat in the February 28-March 3rd time frame? I know its far away, but I honestly think its the closest legit snow threat for our area. It doesn't look perfect of course, but fwiw... 1) EURO OP: The EURO has been very inconsistent from Day 7+, but this setup here is borderline. We have a pretty good low in the south. There is a low in SE Canada. It acts as a cold reinforcement, question would be though if it would be strong enough to get enough cold air possible. What I like about the shortwave in the south compared to the few ones before it is that it isn't wrapping up before it heads east as the others have. It still has a semi positive tilt to it. It will change tonight of course... 2) 12z GFS individual ENS: I like to look at these to see if the threat is real or not. As you can see almost all of the ensembles have some kind of storm on the East coast & some of them have some good cold air in place http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/members/12zf240.html **3) The best sign IMO is the Day 10 EURO ens mean from today. This is potentially the best setup we've had this year being shown here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 nice post but we've had "potential" on the models many a time this winter, etc. and you know what potential's reality has equaled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z euro is very close to giving the lehigh valley a decent snowstorm on saturday. The pocs cash in and the lv probably get some snow also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z euro is very close to giving the lehigh valley a decent snowstorm on saturday. The pocs cash in and the lv probably get some snow also. Do you have qpf from light snow/ice fri night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 Do you have qpf from light snow/ice fri night. It's generally less than .25. More like around .1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 0z euro is very close to giving the lehigh valley a decent snowstorm on saturday. The pocs cash in and the lv probably get some snow also. looks like 1" precip? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 thanks HM....always love the balance of realistic expectations and the further potential in your thoughts....as for the "beyond" how far out do you think we should watch for this scenario? Thanks Sorry for the late response. I appreciate that and try to keep things close to "real" as possible (even if I'm being accused now of "broad-brushing" LR threats, haha). As you are probably aware, the threat period extended a bit beyond the dates through about 2/25 or so as southern waves undercut the blocking. Once this feature is gone, that potential will reduce somewhat for a while. The ECMWF remains adamant about a coastal storm capable of bringing the interior accumulation. Keep in mind that the 2007 event was also modeled pretty warm, as was for a lot of us. This is a very complicated setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted February 19, 2013 Author Share Posted February 19, 2013 Hi, HM...I've occasionally followed your posts and ideas, and appreciate your insight. Good stuff. Question on next week's possible system. Are you concerned about this just turning into a sheared out mess with little or nothing in the end? The models (GFS especially, I think) have been showing that now for a few cycles since yesterday afternoon. There's been tearing of hair and gnashing of teeth in the Mid-Atlantic forum (where I usually hang out, since I'm from that region) over this. I think regardless of how things go, we could be in for a commuting disaster on Friday morning. Even with the relatively light precip, the 2-m temps verbatim are below freezing through much of the morning. And as everyone knows, it doesn't take much. Oh, and I really liked that Feb. 25, 2007 event! A nice surprise, when it looked like we'd get mostly ice then rain. I got ~5" in the Capitol Hill neighborhood of DC, it was very picturesque with snow sticking to everything. It is always a concern things will be too warm or too sheared etc. The models seemed to express the possibility over the weekend but have recently come back to a coastal storm scenario. With a borderline "cutoff" low sitting in the Upper Midwest, another piece of "energy" rounding the base of the trough will have to initiate cyclogenesis...not the original wave. This will help the "trapped energy" to escape around the block. Interior looks to do better than the coastal plain in terms of wintry potential but we'll have to watch for dynamical cooling out of something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted February 19, 2013 Share Posted February 19, 2013 120 hr 06 GEFS. Plenty of uncertainty in strength, timing and location of secondary development and how much cold air is available. Little bit of a trend to a slower colder development Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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