bluewave Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Usually February KU storms have more cold and snow in the December into January period before the storms arrive. The blizzard last week was the rarest in the already small group of storms after a mild and relatively snowless December and January. The other two winters in the list were 1982-1983 and 1994-1995 which differed by being a strong and moderate El Ninos. Those years featured a dominant STJ pattern which has been an important feature in many of our greatest snowstorms. This year so far has featured a split flow northern branch dominant for much of the time in a Nina-like pattern with weak -PDO SST temperature profile. Month.... temperature departure...snowfall in NYC 12/82.....+7.3.....3 1/83........+2.7....1.9 12/94....+5.5.....T 1/95.......+6.0....0.2 12/12....+4.0....0.4 1/13......+2.5...1.5 The other rarity of the blizzard was the 500 mb pattern and the nature of the split flow phase over the Northeast. Split flow phasers near the Northeast usually bomb out too late for us here like the February 2004 Nova Scotia Blizzard. We usually have the 50/50 low closer to the Canadian Maritimes than during this event. 13 storm February KU composite February 2013 blizzard Previous other two February comeback storms with a dominant STJ disturbance 1983 1995 2013 rare split flow phase blizzard for our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kaner587 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Usually February KU storms have more cold and snow in the December into January period before the storms arrive. The blizzard last week was the rarest in the already small group of storms after a mild and relatively snowless December and January. The other two winters in the list were 1982-1983 and 1994-1995 which differed by being a strong and moderate El Nino pattern. Those years featured a dominant STJ pattern which has been an important feature in many of our greatest snowstorms. This year so far has featured a split flow northern branch dominant for much of the time in a Nina-like pattern with weak -PDO SST temperature profile. Month.... temperature departure...snowfall in NYC 12/82.....+7.3.....3 1/83........+2.7....1.9 19830210-19830212-6.25.jpg 12/94....+5.5.....T 1/95.......+6.0....0.2 19950202-19950204-1.43.jpg 12/12....+4.0....0.4 1/13......+2.5...1.5 20130207-20130210-4.35-p.jpg The other rarity of the blizzard was the 500 mb pattern and the nature of the split flow phase over the Northeast. Split flow phasers near the Northeast usually bomb out too late for us here like the February 2004 blizzard. We usually have the 50/50 low closer to the Canadian Maritimes than last week. 13 storm February KU composite FEB500COMP.gif February 2013 blizzard 2913500.gif Previous other two February comeback storms with a dominant STJ disturbance 1983 21183.gif 1995 2495.gif 2013 rare split flow phase blizzard for our area FEB13UNI.gif The rareness factor of some storm we've been seeing lately (oct 2011, sandy, nov 2012 now this) is beginning to be less surprising. Who knows if it has to do with agw but rare is the new common. Great analysis btw bluewave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 a few other examples before 1983 are 1875-76...1920-21 and 1971-72... snowfall and largest snowfall... season...Dec...Jan...Feb...Total...Largest snow... 1875-76...0.5...1.5...12.5...18.3...11.0" 1920-21...1.7...3.5...13.3...18.6...12.5" 1971-72.....T....2.8...17.8...22.9.....5.7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 The rareness factor of some storm we've been seeing lately (oct 2011, sandy, nov 2012 now this) is beginning to be less surprising. Who knows if it has to do with agw but rare is the new common. Great analysis btw bluewave Thanks. Recent years events are rewriting the analog playbook around here. a few other examples before 1983 are 1875-76...1920-21 and 1971-72... snowfall and largest snowfall... season...Dec...Jan...Feb...Total...Largest snow... 1875-76...0.5...1.5...12.5...18.3...11.0" 1920-21...1.7...3.5...13.3...18.6...12.5" 1971-72.....T....2.8...17.8...22.9.....5.7" Don has some great photos of that 1921 storm. http://wintercenter.homestead.com/photofeb1921.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Us having much to do with the storm was pure good luck. The pattern strongly favored an impact NE of here, and we lucked out through a slightly earlier phase and a very robust southern disturbance. Had either been slightly less favorable, we would have had much less snow and an overall weaker system. But on the other end, if we had a clean changeover when it started around 2pm and not dragged on until 8pm, NYC east would have had probably 18"+ easy... The sleet was pouring down for a couple of hours in Long Beach. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Momza Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Us having much to do with the storm was pure good luck. The pattern strongly favored an impact NE of here, and we lucked out through a slightly earlier phase and a very robust southern disturbance. Had either been slightly less favorable, we would have had much less snow and an overall weaker system. But on the other end, if we had a clean changeover when it started around 2pm and not dragged on until 8pm, NYC east would have had probably 18"+ easy... The sleet was pouring down for a couple of hours in Long Beach. The tongue cost us inches...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 There was also another pre-1950 big comeback snowstorm which happened during and El Nino in 1925-1926. The February snowstorm followed a December with only 0.9 in and a January with 3.1. That was also a traditional STJ development like during 1983 and 1995. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/TABLES2.html I found some reanalysis maps showing the day of the storm when NYC picked up 12 inches in February 1926. 1925-26 0 0 0 0.8 0.1 0.9 3.1 26.3 1.2 T 0 0 32.4 February 9-10, 1926....12 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 There was also another pre-1950 big comeback snowstorm which happened during and El Nino in 1925-1926. The February snowstorm followed a December with only 0.9 in and a January with 3.1. That was also a traditional STJ development like during 1983 and 1995. http://www.atmos.washington.edu/~mantua/TABLES2.html I found some reanalysis maps showing the day of the storm when NYC picked up 12 inches in February 1926. 1925-26 0 0 0 0.8 0.1 0.9 3.1 26.3 1.2 T 0 0 32.4 February 9-10, 1926....12 inches 26.gif there were two major storms in one week...10.4" on the 3-4th and 12.0" on the 9-10th...over 20" on the ground after the second storm...After that it was back to light events...I remember February 1995 and hearing about future storms after the big storm...they never materialized... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 there were two major storms in one week...10.4" on the 3-4th and 12.0" on the 9-10th...over 20" on the ground after the second storm...After that it was back to light events...I remember February 1995 and hearing about future storms after the big storm...they never materialized... Yeah, the December and January average temperatures were not cold for that era at 34.8 and 32.0 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The feb 8th event featured an exceedingly rare H5 set-up w/ two vorticies dumb belling around the s/w trough in the Northeast, slowing the sfc low and really bombing it rapidly. The blocking was unimpressive but the interaction of the nern and sern stream waves was quite extraordinary. Really has nothing to do with recent years or any overall signal. The 500mb evolution was basically a rare one. The warm SST's of the gulf stream probably aided in rapid bombogenesis as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 we got a major storm this year despite having a mild December......But we are still a good seven to ten inches below average...But near average for winters with a mild December... season...snowfall...largest snowfall...1889-90...24.3".....6.0" Dec/Mar1891-92...25.4".....8.0" March1923-24...27.5".....8.5" April1931-32.....5.3".....2.0" November1953-54...15.8".....7.8" January1956-57...21.9".....6.4" February1957-58...44.7"...11.8" March1965-66...21.4".....6.8" January1971-72...22.9".....5.7" February1979-80...12.8".....4.6" March1982-83...27.2"...17.6" February1984-85...24.1".....5.7" February1990-91...24.9".....8.9" February1994-95...11.8"...10.8" February1996-97...10.0".....3.5" January1998-99...12.7".....4.5" March1999-00...16.3".....5.5" January2001-02.....3.5".....3.0" January2006-07...12.4".....5.5" March2011-12.....7.4".....4.3" Januaryaverage...18.6".....6.8" 2012-13 18.8"...11.4" February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 The feb 8th event featured an exceedingly rare H5 set-up w/ two vorticies dumb belling around the s/w trough in the Northeast, slowing the sfc low and really bombing it rapidly. The blocking was unimpressive but the interaction of the nern and sern stream waves was quite extraordinary. Really has nothing to do with recent years or any overall signal. The 500mb evolution was basically a rare one. The warm SST's of the gulf stream probably aided in rapid bombogenesis as well. I would also add the increase in blocking near the Canadian Maritimes along with the warm SST's for helping the phase occur sooner near our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 we got a major storm this year despite having a mild December......But we are still a good seven to ten inches below average...But near average for winters with a mild December... season...snowfall...largest snowfall... 1889-90...24.3".....6.0" Dec/Mar 1891-92...25.4".....8.0" March 1923-24...27.5".....8.5" April 1931-32.....5.3".....2.0" November 1953-54...15.8".....7.8" January 1956-57...21.9".....6.4" February 1957-58...44.7"...11.8" March 1965-66...21.4".....6.8" January 1971-72...22.9".....5.7" February 1979-80...12.8".....4.6" March 1982-83...27.2"...17.6" February 1984-85...24.1".....5.7" February 1990-91...24.9".....8.9" February 1994-95...11.8"...10.8" February 1996-97...10.0".....3.5" January 1998-99...12.7".....4.5" March 1999-00...16.3".....5.5" January 2001-02.....3.5".....3.0" January 2006-07...12.4".....5.5" March 2011-12.....7.4".....4.3" January average...18.6".....6.8" 2012-13 18.8"...11.4" February NYC is probably around average for year-to-date snowfall. It's only February 17th. The City probably averages another 7" in the second half of February and March. Our problem is that we don't have any major threats on the table right now until a potentially favorable period around March 1st, which is wasting a prime period for snowstorms. However, here in Dobbs Ferry, we have 37" of snowfall for the season. That meets the long-term average seasonal snowfall and gives us a good chance for above average snowfall. Given climo, we should finish around 50" for the season, although I'd actually expect a little less given the pattern progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 we got a major storm this year despite having a mild December......But we are still a good seven to ten inches below average...But near average for winters with a mild December... season...snowfall...largest snowfall... 1889-90...24.3".....6.0" Dec/Mar 1891-92...25.4".....8.0" March 1923-24...27.5".....8.5" April 1931-32.....5.3".....2.0" November 1953-54...15.8".....7.8" January 1956-57...21.9".....6.4" February 1957-58...44.7"...11.8" March 1965-66...21.4".....6.8" January 1971-72...22.9".....5.7" February 1979-80...12.8".....4.6" March 1982-83...27.2"...17.6" February 1984-85...24.1".....5.7" February 1990-91...24.9".....8.9" February 1994-95...11.8"...10.8" February 1996-97...10.0".....3.5" January 1998-99...12.7".....4.5" March 1999-00...16.3".....5.5" January 2001-02.....3.5".....3.0" January 2006-07...12.4".....5.5" March 2011-12.....7.4".....4.3" January average...18.6".....6.8" 2012-13 18.8"...11.4" February Here are the other years with February KU's and the preceding December and January snowfall with the temperature departure for December. 2010....14.5"...-1.4 2006....11.7"...-2.0 2003....15.7"....-1.3 1994....18.9"...-1.3 1979....7.1".....+3.4 1978....20.7"...+0.2 1969....8.0".....-1.6 1967....10.5"...-0.2 1961....35.3"....-5.0 comebacks 2013...1.9" with maybe 1" undercount......+4.0 1995...0.2"..............................................+5.6 1983...4.9"..............................................+7.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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