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ORH_wxman

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.50-.75" for you

Thanks. I'm guessing about double the earlier run.

Naefs, srefs, euro, gfs... All I believe strongly point towards earlier development. Notice the euro has shifted sw and really early in the run throws much more precip into the Carolina's. it's not there yet, but by morning probably will be.

Can really see the tug as you flip through the run ESP compared to the 12z. All signs IMO point to it developing right off hatteras, sooner and faster than modeled.

(Should have added the rap to the pile above... I think it'll be pretty helpful in the morning)

Euro came towards the gfs/ gefs.... Nice

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Yeah, Precip field has an odd look to it, Probably does not end up that way

Agreed. The one issue that may still be a bugger is the trajectory of the low even if it forms closer to the outer banks. It would still take the out and up track so how far west the best can get is a ?

Wrapped up off the cape? Gulf of Maine? Be interesting to see how this evolves

For now 3-6/4-8 here will see where it goes in later runs

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Agreed. The one issue that may still be a bugger is the trajectory of the low even if it forms closer to the outer banks. It would still take the out and up track so how far west the best can get is a ?

Wrapped up off the cape? Gulf of Maine? Be interesting to see how this evolves

For now 3-6/4-8 here will see where it goes in later runs

 

 

Yeah, precip tonight on radar is further west then modeled and on my doorstep, Just a subtle shift west with the trough and low placement can have differences once it reaches NE, How far west the heavier precip makes it is still in question, But it looks better then modeled

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Yeah, precip tonight on radar is further west then modeled and on my doorstep, Just a subtle shift west with the trough and low placement can have differences once it reaches NE, How far west the heavier precip makes it is still in question, But it looks better then modeled

Yep. Low should form kind of in the middle of where they're all hammering these higher qpf amounts starting off hatteras and moving ne from there.

Since we entered this pattern every single system has had the qpf max amounts further NW than modeled. There's so much potential here.

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Yep. Low should form kind of in the middle of where they're all hammering these higher qpf amounts starting off hatteras and moving ne from there.

Since we entered this pattern every single system has had the qpf max amounts further NW than modeled. There's so much potential here.

 

 

The max precip on the Euro is on the SW side of the LP, With the low bombing once it reaches this lat should have a well defined deformation band and CCB on the NW side which should warp snow back further to the west then whats progged

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Very interesting to see what occurs today. 00z Euro is now inside track. BOX still fully confident of ultimate track.

A DIGGING TROUGH OVER THE PLAINS/MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL CONNECT WITH A 150 KNOT SOUTHERN STREAM JET ALONG THE GULF COAST TODAY AND TURN IT NORTHEAST UP THE EAST COAST...WHILE INCREASING THE FLOW TO 175 KNOTS. THIS WILL PROVIDE GOOD UPPER VENTING AS THE JET CROSSES OVER THE BY-THEN OFFSHORE COLD FRONT. THE RESULT WILL BE A DEVELOPING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL THEN MOVE UP THE COLD FRONT AND PASS OFFSHORE OF NANTUCKET LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. AS THE LOW DEEPENS ITS WINDS WILL BECOME STRONGER AND DRAW COLDER AIR SOUTH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND.

MODELS ARE SIMILAR IN TAKING THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW A COUPLE OF DEGREES OUTSIDE THE BENCHMARK. THE 00Z ECMWF IS CLOSEST TO SHORE...THE GGEM FARTHEST TO SEA...AND THE 00Z GFS IS IN BETWEEN. WE USED A BLEND OF GFS AND ECMWF.

STRONG PRESSURE FALLS IN ADVANCE OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT WITH 1-2 MB/HOUR RATES...THEN PRESSURE RISES OF 1 TO 1.5 MB/HOUR BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY. MIXING PROFILES IN THE COLD ADVECTION SUNDAY DRAW ON 40-45 KNOT WINDS ALOFT...SUPPORTING GUSTS TO THOSE SPEEDS AS THE STORM MOVES OFF. EXPECT INCREASING WINDS AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM TONIGHT AND THEN STRONG GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS BEHIND.

BEST SUPPORT FOR LIFT WILL BE WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF THE OFFSHORE JET...AND THIS OCCURS OVER THE OCEAN. DEPENDING ON HOW BROADLY THE EXIT REGION IS DEFINED IT COULD EXTEND TO THE CAPE AND ISLANDS. IN ANY CASE...THE BEST FAVORED LAND AREA FOR PCPN WILL BE CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS WITH LESS FAVORED SUPPORT FARTHER NORTH AND WEST. THE LIFT BEGINS TO SHOW AROUND MIDNIGHT AND CONTINUES PAST 12Z...BUT THEN DIMINISHES. SO THE FAVORED TIME FOR PCPN WOULD BE ROUGHLY 06Z TO 15Z. WITH COOLING SURFACE TEMPS IN THE EVENING AND WITH COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN SOUTH ALOFT...EXPECT MOST PCPN TONIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL BE SNOW.

QUESTIONS CONTINUE WITH THIS SYSTEM AND THE ABILITY OF THE MODELS TO ADEQUATELY SIMULATE IT. IF THE ACTUAL STORM MOVES A LITTLE CLOSER TO SHORE...EXPECTED SNOWFALL WILL BE HIGHER. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE DERIVED FROM A BLEND OF RFC AND HPC QPF...AND A LITTLE GFS AND ECMWF MIXED IN. THIS BRINGS 4-8 INCHES OF SNOW TO CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...A SMIDGE LESS ON THE VINEYARD...AND DIMINISHING AMOUNTS FARTHER NORTH AND WEST.

BASED ON THESE VALUES WE HAVE UPGRADED THE WINTER STORM WATCH TO A WINTER STORM WARNING ON CAPE COD AND NANTUCKET...AND HAVE POSTED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR MARTHAS VINEYARD AND MUCH OF EASTERN MASS AND RI. DEPENDING ON THE STORM TRACK THIS AREA COULD SHIFT FARTHER WEST OR EAST...SO STAY TUNED.

FARTHER WEST...EXPECT SOME SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING BUT LOW ACCUMULATIONS. DIMINISHING POPS SUNDAY AFTERNOON... AND DRIER AIR MAY ALLOW FOR SOME CLEARING ESPECIALLY IN THE CT VALLEY.

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