Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Well I don't know if it will do the same, but there are reasons to question the initial set-up We'll know in the morning. The s/w that gets the whole party started is right on the Missouri/Arkansas border right now. Overnight the models sharpen it as a bunch of pieces come together as it moves east off the Carolina coast. If we continue to see a disorganized mess with several different maxes in the base of the trough...we're screwed. If it comes together, maybe not. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130216&endTime=-1&duration=4 Don't forget, GGEM was upgraded 12z 2/13. This will be the first major "test" of the upgrade. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 GGEM not that excited either...looks pretty close to the RGEM...gets that initial band of precip up into eastern half of SNE before everything slides east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 We'll know in the morning. The s/w that gets the whole party started is right on the Missouri/Arkansas border right now. Overnight the models sharpen it as a bunch of pieces come together as it moves east off the Carolina coast. If we continue to see a disorganized mess with several different maxes in the base of the trough...we're screwed. If it comes together, maybe not. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130216&endTime=-1&duration=4 Don't forget, GGEM was upgraded 12z 2/13. This will be the first major "test" of the upgrade. Right and there is just a ton of wind max hauling ass down the front range of the Rockies into the backside of that on water vapor. You can also see the axis of the Arklotex S/W beginning to rotate more neutral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GGEM pretty similar to the RGEM which probably isn't a surprise post update. There's nothing obvious right now that would point to any model camp being right. None are great hits aside of maybe the GFS in coastal areas. wait and see, hopefully in the morning it all looks more impressive. W/V is kind of disinteresting now, same old same old with multiple spins moving in a broader flow which would favor the later organization. Nice weenie band forming out west for some of you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GGEM pretty similar to the RGEM which probably isn't a surprise post update. There's nothing obvious right now that would point to any model camp being right. None are great hits aside of maybe the GFS in coastal areas. wait and see, hopefully in the morning it all looks more impressive. W/V is kind of disinteresting now, same old same old with multiple spins moving in a broader flow which would favor the later organization. Nice weenie band forming out west for some of you. 29.5/27 here w/ virga overhead. DP's are relatively high so hoping we can saturate quickly out here. This systems low stress for me because 2" from the N parcel of energy would be a big score. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Right and there is just a ton of wind max hauling ass down the front range of the Rockies into the backside of that on water vapor. You can also see the axis of the Arklotex S/W beginning to rotate more neutral. Been a weird year with these mini systems. Look due north of New England right now. Matching spins, side by side, lifting north. http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130216&endTime=-1&duration=4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ukie and Canadian disappointing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ukie and Canadian disappointing. Ukie has been backing off for many runs now it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ukie and Canadian disappointing. Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Next I just didn't like the look of this..especially since the euro never bit. The hope is to get on a back side deform band which is actually possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Here's the 24 hour op. GGEM. Take a look at the vort max that is some 350 naut miles E of Hatteras; that vort max, if you go back in time, is clearly born of convective processes. It is using that feature to detonate cyclogenesis, then captures it later on. It can happen that way, but it looks suspect to me. Also, this run has a huge full latitude trough axis amplifying roughly GA at this same time, but it has very little vort max associated with that - that's kind of weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I just didn't like the look of this..especially since the euro never bit. The hope is to get on a back side deform band which is actually possible. That was telling when the euro showed marginal interest although some may spin it differently, cough cough, Somebody to the west will see some deformation banding, The question is how far and where Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 dont look now but latest arw and nmm just increased precip for eastern mass and cape they both look pretty damn good out there, enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Here's the 24 hour op. GGEM. Take a look at the vort max that is some 350 naut miles E of Hatteras; that vort max, if you go back in time, is clearly born of convective processes. It is using that feature to detonate cyclogenesis, then captures it later on. It can happen that way, but it looks suspect to me. Also, this run has a huge full latitude trough axis amplifying roughly GA at this same time, but it has very little vort max associated with that - that's kind of weird. I've been following these things for 20+ years now. This whole evolution is just bizarre. The NAM does some really odd things later tonight too. Almost all the models develop a prominent feature at 500mb right off the Carolina coast in the morning as convection fires. That may be traceable to the feature coming across the northern Gulf tonight or it may literally be some type of feedback. It may not be wrong, sometimes that is the case, but it's certainly a point to watch. Euro does it too. One could argue that's actually where the low should be forming and not to the ENE of the "developing" vortmax. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 dont look now but latest arw and nmm just increased precip for eastern mass and cape they both look pretty damn good out there, enjoy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What can I say, son is up with the stomach bug and puking, they look much better out that way, by the way what a nice band just to my west per obs dropping down some good snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Tiny flakes starting to drift around in the floodlight. I like that the band of heavier returns is pointing from the SW Berks right into central Frnaklin Co. This first round is our only real shot of accumulating something out here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Band slowly meandering over my house here near exit 16 of the NYS thruway is featuring silver dollar sized flakes which have put down a bit over an inch in the past hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Well not much to see tonight. I don't know, I'd swear looking at this that the storm should develop off the Carolinas in the morning, not be a blob 300 miles further NE. Might be wrong, will see in the am. GEFS came west. NAM was okay, GFS okay, others not so much. NMM is okay too. Thinking enough QPF for 3-6/4-8 at a minimum. Potential for much more. I'm not usually into the whole feedback thing, but I do wonder if that's part of what we're seeing here. Will know soon. Time for some shuteye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 That phallic band is frustratingly close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What can I say, son is up with the stomach bug and puking, they look much better out that way, by the way what a nice band just to my west per obs dropping down some good snows. Yup, Radar has some nice echoes to your west, Been there done that with what your dealing with, Sucks big time, That looks to be the band that gets here early am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Bigger, steadier flakes here now. Someone want to start an obs thread? Not my storm so I don't want to be responsible for the juju. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Bigger, steadier flakes here now. Someone want to start an obs thread? Not my storm so I don't want to be responsible for the juju. lol I only do historic threads.............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Was looking at some of the other ensemble stuff. I really believe this forms further west and that the models are for whatever reason keying on what may be spurious energy aloft in the morning and developing the low too far east. I'd think it forms over the Gulf Stream east of the Carolina's as the s/w approaches the coast (one I mentioned earlier). I don't think it makes much sense for it to develop so far ots and ahead of the main energy. I may be totally wrong, but to me it just doesn't make a lot of sense and smacks of some of the processes we see at times with super intense situations. Watch the RAP, it's not biting on that 500mb feature that may be born of convection. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 She's coming west. Euro just shifted in a pretty huge way and I think all the signals are there that it starts bombing off hatteras. It's not going to be an oblong low in the middle of nowhere. Start the development a few hours earlier and this thing is quite the performer. We will lose the feedback type processes in the morning I hope. Gulf of Mexico Saturday as two s/ws come together and later probably with the main center coming east. Bottom drops out right off hatteras later Saturday. Low forms a few hours earlier the entire track goes west. Carolina's/Virginia etc may be in for a surprise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ride the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
West Point, NY Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 About 2" OTG with silver dollar flakes still falling. Southern part of the band not making any progress eastward and echoes are regenerating to my SW. Looks like an over performer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ride the Euro What's the total qpf? I'm on my phone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What's the total qpf? I'm on my phone .50-.75" for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 .50-.75" for you What's the rest of SNE/NNe look like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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