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ORH_wxman

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Well I don't know if it will do the same, but there are reasons to question the initial set-up   

 

We'll know in the morning.  The s/w that gets the whole party started is right on the Missouri/Arkansas border right now.  Overnight the models sharpen it as a bunch of pieces come together as it moves east off the Carolina coast.  If we continue to see a disorganized mess with several different maxes in the base of the trough...we're screwed.  If it comes together, maybe not.

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130216&endTime=-1&duration=4

 

Don't forget, GGEM was upgraded 12z 2/13.  This will be the first major "test" of the upgrade.

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We'll know in the morning.  The s/w that gets the whole party started is right on the Missouri/Arkansas border right now.  Overnight the models sharpen it as a bunch of pieces come together as it moves east off the Carolina coast.  If we continue to see a disorganized mess with several different maxes in the base of the trough...we're screwed.  If it comes together, maybe not.

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130216&endTime=-1&duration=4

 

Don't forget, GGEM was upgraded 12z 2/13.  This will be the first major "test" of the upgrade.

 

Right and there is just a ton of wind max hauling ass down the front range of the Rockies into the backside of that on water vapor. You can also see the axis of the Arklotex S/W beginning to rotate more neutral.   

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GGEM pretty similar to the RGEM which probably isn't a surprise post update.

 

There's nothing obvious right now that would point to any model camp being right.  None are great hits aside of maybe the GFS in coastal areas.  wait and see, hopefully in the morning it all looks more impressive.  W/V is kind of disinteresting now, same old same old with multiple spins moving in a broader flow which would favor the later organization.

 

Nice weenie band forming out west for some of you.

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GGEM pretty similar to the RGEM which probably isn't a surprise post update.

 

There's nothing obvious right now that would point to any model camp being right.  None are great hits aside of maybe the GFS in coastal areas.  wait and see, hopefully in the morning it all looks more impressive.  W/V is kind of disinteresting now, same old same old with multiple spins moving in a broader flow which would favor the later organization.

 

Nice weenie band forming out west for some of you.

29.5/27 here w/ virga overhead.  DP's are relatively high so hoping we can saturate quickly out here.   This systems low stress for me because 2" from the N parcel of energy would be a big score. lol

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Right and there is just a ton of wind max hauling ass down the front range of the Rockies into the backside of that on water vapor. You can also see the axis of the Arklotex S/W beginning to rotate more neutral.   

 

Been a weird year with these mini systems.  Look due north of New England right now.  Matching spins, side by side, lifting north. 

 

http://weather.rap.ucar.edu/satellite/displaySat.php?region=ALB&itype=wv&size=large&endDate=20130216&endTime=-1&duration=4

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Here's the 24 hour op. GGEM.  Take a look at the vort max that is some 350 naut miles E of Hatteras;  that vort max, if you go back in time, is clearly born of convective processes.  It is using that feature to detonate cyclogenesis, then captures it later on.  

 

It can happen that way, but it looks suspect to me.  Also, this run has a huge full latitude trough axis amplifying roughly GA at this same time, but it has very little vort max associated with that - that's kind of weird.  

 

528_100.gif

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I just didn't like the look of this..especially since the euro never bit. The hope is to get on a back side deform band which is actually possible.

 

 

That was telling when the euro showed marginal interest although some may spin it differently, cough cough, Somebody to the west will see some deformation banding, The question is how far and where

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Here's the 24 hour op. GGEM.  Take a look at the vort max that is some 350 naut miles E of Hatteras;  that vort max, if you go back in time, is clearly born of convective processes.  It is using that feature to detonate cyclogenesis, then captures it later on.  

 

It can happen that way, but it looks suspect to me.  Also, this run has a huge full latitude trough axis amplifying roughly GA at this same time, but it has very little vort max associated with that - that's kind of weird.  

 

I've been following these things for 20+ years now.  This whole evolution is just bizarre.  The NAM does some really odd things later tonight too.  Almost all the models develop a prominent feature at 500mb right off the Carolina coast in the morning as convection fires.  That may be traceable to the feature coming across the northern Gulf tonight or it may literally be some type of feedback.  It may not be wrong, sometimes that is the case, but it's certainly a point to watch.  Euro does it too.  One could argue that's actually where the low should be forming and not to the ENE of the "developing" vortmax.

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Well not much to see tonight.  I don't know, I'd swear looking at this that the storm should develop off the Carolinas in the morning, not be a blob 300 miles further NE.  Might be wrong, will see in the am. 

 

GEFS came west.  NAM was okay, GFS okay, others not so much.  NMM is okay too.  Thinking enough QPF for 3-6/4-8 at a minimum.   Potential for much more.  I'm not usually into the whole feedback thing, but I do wonder if that's part of what we're seeing here.  Will know soon.

 

Time for some shuteye.

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What can I say, son is up with the stomach bug and puking, they look much better out that way, by the way what a nice band just to my west per obs dropping down some good snows.  

 

 

Yup, Radar has some nice echoes to your west, Been there done that with what your dealing with, Sucks big time, That looks to be the band that gets here early am

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Was looking at some of the other ensemble stuff. I really believe this forms further west and that the models are for whatever reason keying on what may be spurious energy aloft in the morning and developing the low too far east. I'd think it forms over the Gulf Stream east of the Carolina's as the s/w approaches the coast (one I mentioned earlier). I don't think it makes much sense for it to develop so far ots and ahead of the main energy.

I may be totally wrong, but to me it just doesn't make a lot of sense and smacks of some of the processes we see at times with super intense situations. Watch the RAP, it's not biting on that 500mb feature that may be born of convection.

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She's coming west. Euro just shifted in a pretty huge way and I think all the signals are there that it starts bombing off hatteras. It's not going to be an oblong low in the middle of nowhere.

Start the development a few hours earlier and this thing is quite the performer. We will lose the feedback type processes in the morning I hope.

Gulf of Mexico Saturday as two s/ws come together and later probably with the main center coming east. Bottom drops out right off hatteras later Saturday. Low forms a few hours earlier the entire track goes west.

Carolina's/Virginia etc may be in for a surprise

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