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ORH_wxman

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nice hit on the usually more tame 12km version of the 18z btv wrf meso  belivable IMO for the FIRST event. Actually becoming confident advisory levels are met easily in a stripe, maybe 6 or so

 

.....has been consistent for 2 cycles (may mean nothing) but eye raising to me to show this narrow thrust of precip from SW CT thru N central CT up thru N orh into Nashua.  .5 + to springfield by 1am ?!!  then the band continues over on line to nash tomm late am. with .5 +......with a few weenie lolli's to .75.  tapers off quickly on either side of that line. but man could be a intersting meso set up tonite where the best forcing sets up. i mention this bc this is less than 12 hrs out and this is a more meso scale event and this model is really hittin it for some areas in a fairly narrow swath. click on 24 qpf.

 

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/btv/html/12kmwrf/index.php

 

this model also likes messengers area on east for .5 to 1.0 qpf in second event.  with .25 from S shore to ktan to SE ri... SE ward. obv a swing 50 miles puts more in the game or all out but as we've said bears some watching.

 

I would think this model may have better handle on the first event given the meso scale nature while i wouldn't hold my breath on its handling of the coastal. I'll leave that to the euro /gfs 70/30 blend.   

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That might end up beign a pretty good weenie band from the first round over the interior. The parameters look pretty good for it looking at the mesoanalysis ad the RAP forecasts for the next 9-12 hours or so.

do you see the best paramaters setting up from like DXR to Springfield over to (you/dave) toward KASH? or somewhere else... and is confidence decent where this occurs in your opinon

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do you see the best paramaters setting up from like DXR to Springfield over to (you/dave) toward KASH? or somewhere else... and is confidence decent where this occurs in your opinon

 

I think initially it will set up over NW areas but shift a bit E with time...I like the Berkshires to N ORH hills on this.

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Pickles - you obsess about the placement of snow. Are you planning on driving to the best spot?

 it's a wx forum and there is a cool  meso scale event taking place

 

i want to know where best forcing is setting up and wether that location has decent confidence. 

 

i'm not drivin anywhere but i think the event tonite deserves more attention ....i think more posters will be happy bout this round tonite.....like chris m ....codfishblah blah blah over to hubbdave and maybe even the fellas in sterling, ma  southbridge and where ever else in rural central mass we got peeps.

 

it's like when i stay'd up to watch the band drop a quick 4-5 inches of snow over S ri /S mass the other nite, i want to learn and i want to know wtf is likely to be going on. but i see a few signs tonite that ....what occurs tonite will actually be better than the near miss coastal that everyone's been focused on. i was actually impressed with some things trending  tonite

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NAM really never stops precip for central areas once the first band moves in, NAM has light snow all day tomorrow.. interesting

 

I like the outcome, the 8-12 hour period overnight is a bit dubious in the deep south ( I don't think it's strong enough to be honest).  We'll see. I think it's  just picking up on the s/w in the northern GOM that the RAP has while slowing down the system trying to move through TN.  The net result is a negative tilt.  It's a much, much better solution.

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Still too far to the east considering the H5 setup.

 

I don't think we can worry about that until the morning.  I like this tonight, I hope other guidance supports the idea of a slower escape of the s/w.  Will lead to a more negative tilt.  We aren't far off in this solution from a real big storm.  

 

The NAM adjusted west pretty significantly and I'd argue it's still too far east based on the fact I think it'll prove to be too weak in the south overnight into Saturday.  Typhoon's point apply about the baro zone being too far east in earlier NAM runs.

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