Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,589
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Feb 16-17 Threat


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

i would argue it's not even close - we are way better than 20 years ago. 

 

but again, i'm not worried about perfect modeling. it was really sarcasm.  

from the pure forecastingstandpoint, i am not so sure. obviously, on all sorts of levels there has been improvement(and technology is largely the reason) but as a forecaster trying to reach a viable prediction....the jury may be still out on that. my point is that the increase in model count doesn't give me an edge over what i could do years ago as a forecaster. After the fact, the reasons are better seen as to why the forecast went wrong but it doesn't seem to make for a much better real time forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

impossible....will never happen. i would argue that in some ways we have gotten worse over the last 20 years due to literally too many models using differing assumptions that have just muddied the forecasting waters.

 

Nope.  20 years ago we were still trying to track the -8C H85 isotherm for heavy banding. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Uh...time duration is stretching it, but I personally think he's a decent Met....

not to go too far OT and start a pissing contest, but this is from their website:

 

 

Kevin Lemanowicz was the first chief meteorologist for FOX25 News at Ten in 1996, and has guided viewers through all the twists and turns of New England weather for two decades.

http://www.myfoxboston.com/category/233063/about-us'>http://www.myfoxboston.com/category/233063/about-us

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 educate with an uneducated comment. Horrible.

sorry you don't like it, but you are missing my point. of course, in many ways(short term ability to accurately warn the public about imminent events) we are light years ahead and certainly better than when i made a forecast using only 3 models(baratropic, baraclinic and lfm). I am talking about what was a problem then and is still the same major problem we had in the 70's....a forecast 2-4 days out for a potential storm that we have a strong level of confidence in. you need only  look at what we see constantly with nearly every event and the model wars which  sometimes do not even seem to be looking at the same atmosphere. i in no way denegrate the advancements but in the crucial mid range forecast that the public wants every time they hear of an approaching event....i believe we are still found wanting. just some thoughts.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

from the pure forecastingstandpoint, i am not so sure. obviously, on all sorts of levels there has been improvement(and technology is largely the reason) but as a forecaster trying to reach a viable prediction....the jury may be still out on that. my point is that the increase in model count doesn't give me an edge over what i could do years ago as a forecaster. After the fact, the reasons are better seen as to why the forecast went wrong but it doesn't seem to make for a much better real time forecast.

we agree to disagree.

 

i think you just have to know how/when/why to use the various tools. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

we agree to disagree.

 

i think you just have to know how/when/why to use the various tools. 

and that  is just my point. it is often not until after the fact that we know which tools to use. i love reading what the new generation of mets argue about as you use the tools that were not available when i took my degree in '76. but the public response to our forecasting abilities is about the same as when i started in the field...a chuckle with rolling eyes is still favored by the populace it seems. anyway....keep up the good work!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro doesn't have as drastic swings as the NCEP guidance because its a better model...that's why. Its usually closer to reality to begin with so it doesn't need to trend hard. Over-trending happens with bad models.

 

Euro is still prone to the same issues as NCEP guidance, but it just suffers them less frequently.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro doesn't have as drastic swings as the NCEP guidance because its a better model...that's why. Its usually closer to reality to begin with so it doesn't need to trend hard. Over-trending happens with bad models.

 

Euro is still prone to the same issues as NCEP guidance, but it just suffers them less frequently.

Let's keep it on topic..radar looks great to west..A few inches OTG by morning

 

Temp tickling down to 37.1 here.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This low will explode near NS...it's a shame it can't be closer that's all. One stupid little s/w in NY state is all that is in the way.

A fn upstate ny sw ! I heard this mentioned in another thread 2 days ago. Scott did the 12z gfs/gefs handle the ny state energy much differently

 

It's just the orientation of the vort lobe that prevents the flow from backing just enough. It's such a small detail. It's also related to the first weak wave that develops well SE of the BM and sort of keeps the baroclinic zone offshore enough so that the developing low can't wrap warmer air back west.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bring it on home Brittany

 

 

 

AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGIONLATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING.  THE NAM/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOODAGREEMENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH/FRONTOGENETICFORCING ALONG WITH SOME NEGATIVE EPV.  THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THISACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCECORRIDOR.  FEEL MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY SEE ANINCH OR TWO FROM THIS BAND.  ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOMEISOLATED 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN A NARROW BAND WHERE FORCING ISMAXIMIZED.
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Bring it on home Brittany

AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION

LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD

AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH/FRONTOGENETIC

FORCING ALONG WITH SOME NEGATIVE EPV. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS

ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE

CORRIDOR. FEEL MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY SEE AN

INCH OR TWO FROM THIS BAND. ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME

ISOLATED 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN A NARROW BAND WHERE FORCING IS

MAXIMIZED.

Congrats on 1-2"

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Euro doesn't have as drastic swings as the NCEP guidance because its a better model...that's why. Its usually closer to reality to begin with so it doesn't need to trend hard. Over-trending happens with bad models.

 

Euro is still prone to the same issues as NCEP guidance, but it just suffers them less frequently.

 

Will I really think it's something in the math behind the model though too.  There are times when in 12 hours the Euro "sees" a similar change to the NCEP guidance.  Overlaying the changes say the GFS/EUro will be similar, yet the GFS will make a major change, usually overshooting, while the Euro plods towards the solution.  I believe the Euro just doesn't react as harshly to initial conditions changes understanding that part of the "change" may have just been the result of the grid, whereas the NCEP stuff goes "holy shi(" and makes a wholesale change only to back off.

 

NAM/GFS are way, way weaker in the GOM

 

 

Anyway, I love seeing stuff like this in the GOM.  If this is right will get interesting off the east coast.

post-3232-0-91821700-1360976690_thumb.gi

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Although this is a minor event, I like where I stand for once. The radar looks good upstream from me and the RAP seems to want to maximize the frontogenetical forcing band over W MA and W CT from about 06z to 12z. I'm going for a general 1-3" with a possible spot 4" where the lift is maximized. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...