educate Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 i would argue it's not even close - we are way better than 20 years ago. but again, i'm not worried about perfect modeling. it was really sarcasm. from the pure forecastingstandpoint, i am not so sure. obviously, on all sorts of levels there has been improvement(and technology is largely the reason) but as a forecaster trying to reach a viable prediction....the jury may be still out on that. my point is that the increase in model count doesn't give me an edge over what i could do years ago as a forecaster. After the fact, the reasons are better seen as to why the forecast went wrong but it doesn't seem to make for a much better real time forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 impossible....will never happen. i would argue that in some ways we have gotten worse over the last 20 years due to literally too many models using differing assumptions that have just muddied the forecasting waters. Nope. 20 years ago we were still trying to track the -8C H85 isotherm for heavy banding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Uh...time duration is stretching it, but I personally think he's a decent Met.... not to go too far OT and start a pissing contest, but this is from their website: Kevin Lemanowicz was the first chief meteorologist for FOX25 News at Ten in 1996, and has guided viewers through all the twists and turns of New England weather for two decades. http://www.myfoxboston.com/category/233063/about-us'>http://www.myfoxboston.com/category/233063/about-us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 i would argue it's not even close - we are way better than 20 years ago. but again, i'm not worried about perfect modeling. it was really sarcasm. educate with an uneducated comment. Horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tolland Death Band Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Bob cox just chucked a whole c-1" for ct!!! He is a notorious bear on snow totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 educate with an uneducated comment. Horrible. sorry you don't like it, but you are missing my point. of course, in many ways(short term ability to accurately warn the public about imminent events) we are light years ahead and certainly better than when i made a forecast using only 3 models(baratropic, baraclinic and lfm). I am talking about what was a problem then and is still the same major problem we had in the 70's....a forecast 2-4 days out for a potential storm that we have a strong level of confidence in. you need only look at what we see constantly with nearly every event and the model wars which sometimes do not even seem to be looking at the same atmosphere. i in no way denegrate the advancements but in the crucial mid range forecast that the public wants every time they hear of an approaching event....i believe we are still found wanting. just some thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 from the pure forecastingstandpoint, i am not so sure. obviously, on all sorts of levels there has been improvement(and technology is largely the reason) but as a forecaster trying to reach a viable prediction....the jury may be still out on that. my point is that the increase in model count doesn't give me an edge over what i could do years ago as a forecaster. After the fact, the reasons are better seen as to why the forecast went wrong but it doesn't seem to make for a much better real time forecast. we agree to disagree. i think you just have to know how/when/why to use the various tools. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 we agree to disagree. i think you just have to know how/when/why to use the various tools. and that is just my point. it is often not until after the fact that we know which tools to use. i love reading what the new generation of mets argue about as you use the tools that were not available when i took my degree in '76. but the public response to our forecasting abilities is about the same as when i started in the field...a chuckle with rolling eyes is still favored by the populace it seems. anyway....keep up the good work! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2Otown_WX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 He is a notorious bear on snow totals Yep. You know a storm is not panning out when Bob Cox comes on in the middle of it and describes the rest of the forecast period with "snow of varying intensity" or "occasional snow." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 The Euro doesn't have as drastic swings as the NCEP guidance because its a better model...that's why. Its usually closer to reality to begin with so it doesn't need to trend hard. Over-trending happens with bad models. Euro is still prone to the same issues as NCEP guidance, but it just suffers them less frequently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This low will explode near NS...it's a shame it can't be closer that's all. One stupid little s/w in NY state is all that is in the way. A fn upstate ny sw ! I heard this mentioned in another thread 2 days ago. Scott did the 12z gfs/gefs handle the ny state energy much differently Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 The Euro doesn't have as drastic swings as the NCEP guidance because its a better model...that's why. Its usually closer to reality to begin with so it doesn't need to trend hard. Over-trending happens with bad models. Euro is still prone to the same issues as NCEP guidance, but it just suffers them less frequently. Let's keep it on topic..radar looks great to west..A few inches OTG by morning Temp tickling down to 37.1 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 This low will explode near NS...it's a shame it can't be closer that's all. One stupid little s/w in NY state is all that is in the way. A fn upstate ny sw ! I heard this mentioned in another thread 2 days ago. Scott did the 12z gfs/gefs handle the ny state energy much differently It's just the orientation of the vort lobe that prevents the flow from backing just enough. It's such a small detail. It's also related to the first weak wave that develops well SE of the BM and sort of keeps the baroclinic zone offshore enough so that the developing low can't wrap warmer air back west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Bring it on home Brittany AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGIONLATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOODAGREEMENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH/FRONTOGENETICFORCING ALONG WITH SOME NEGATIVE EPV. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THISACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCECORRIDOR. FEEL MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY SEE ANINCH OR TWO FROM THIS BAND. ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOMEISOLATED 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN A NARROW BAND WHERE FORCING ISMAXIMIZED. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Bring it on home Brittany AN INITIAL SHORTWAVE WILL BE WORKING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION LATER TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY MORNING. THE NAM/GFS ARE IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT IN SHOWING A BAND OF DECENT SNOW GROWTH/FRONTOGENETIC FORCING ALONG WITH SOME NEGATIVE EPV. THE MAIN FOCUS FOR THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE BOSTON TO PROVIDENCE CORRIDOR. FEEL MUCH OF INTERIOR SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND MAY SEE AN INCH OR TWO FROM THIS BAND. ITS POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED 3 TO 4 INCH AMOUNTS IN A NARROW BAND WHERE FORCING IS MAXIMIZED. Congrats on 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Congrats on 1-2" I remember when you used to offer good insight and not troll with every post. We miss those days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 radar loop to the southwest consolidating nicely and may bode well for this first thrust of precip. Congrats on 1-2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 We need the trough to really Dig. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 36.5 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Congrats on 1-2" I remember when you used to offer good insight and not troll with every post. We miss those days I know. Takes too much effort. Real thoughts are just glazed over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Congrats on 1-2" I remember when you used to offer good insight and not troll with every post. We miss those days I know. Takes too much effort. Real thoughts are just glazed over not true, I read met comments. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 I know. Takes too much effort. Real thoughts are just glazed over I liked the days when real meteorological insight wasn't spun into some angle that is well off the original analysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The Euro doesn't have as drastic swings as the NCEP guidance because its a better model...that's why. Its usually closer to reality to begin with so it doesn't need to trend hard. Over-trending happens with bad models. Euro is still prone to the same issues as NCEP guidance, but it just suffers them less frequently. Will I really think it's something in the math behind the model though too. There are times when in 12 hours the Euro "sees" a similar change to the NCEP guidance. Overlaying the changes say the GFS/EUro will be similar, yet the GFS will make a major change, usually overshooting, while the Euro plods towards the solution. I believe the Euro just doesn't react as harshly to initial conditions changes understanding that part of the "change" may have just been the result of the grid, whereas the NCEP stuff goes "holy shi(" and makes a wholesale change only to back off. NAM/GFS are way, way weaker in the GOM Anyway, I love seeing stuff like this in the GOM. If this is right will get interesting off the east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I wonder if models weaken this fronto band too quickly. Perhaps it can stall and give a little love to ern areas before any true WAA synoptic stuff arrives from the south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmanmitch Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Although this is a minor event, I like where I stand for once. The radar looks good upstream from me and the RAP seems to want to maximize the frontogenetical forcing band over W MA and W CT from about 06z to 12z. I'm going for a general 1-3" with a possible spot 4" where the lift is maximized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 BTW with that Rap image....it takes the vortmax evident right on the TX border and moves it ESE, not sure where the trailer comes from 12+ hours but hope it's legit. That IMO would make things more interesting along the east coast in a pretty big way. Could be RAP fiction though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 SREFs shifted east by a decent amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Separating the haves from the have nots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Meh train. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 16, 2013 Author Share Posted February 16, 2013 That might end up beign a pretty good weenie band from the first round over the interior. The parameters look pretty good for it looking at the mesoanalysis ad the RAP forecasts for the next 9-12 hours or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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