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ORH_wxman

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too bad...many are missing out as a result-even the most west based model has corrected east...

 

Well I suppose it could blow up rapidly or models key on the srn energy and bring it west a bit. That's part of the reason I wasn't biting this morning on the 12" the GFS gave me. I'll take an advisory though. Sucks to waste this setup.

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Man... Jim Cantore just tore the American models apart on TWC, lol.  Saying the European has been advertising a relatively low impact event and now that appears to be what will take place.  He reference Hurricane Sandy when the ECM nailed that from 4-5 days out, and the past blizzard where the ECM schooled the GFS.

 

He said that for a country that has so much to lose like we do, with droughts, fires, blizzards, hurricanes, severe weather, etc we should have the best model data in the world. 


That was pretty cool to hear him talk about that stuff on the air.

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I'd really watch the position of this boundary as it sets up shop paralleling the east coast. Looking even at this 18z NAM it appears it's honing in on a convective enhanced vortex node rather than that provided by the main impulse's jet max, for inducing cyclogenesis.. It madly deepens it immediately there after; this induces dramatic height falls to feed-back into the overall trough structure - way N of the main jet dynamics. This then encourages the whole L/W to shift remarkably NE... All that evolution could be an eastward error, and one that I think there is "some" possibility all the models are sharing in due to the immense numerical instability of the Gulf Stream.

90fwbg.gif

If this front above that is nearing the SE Coast hangs up ...where it does, is likely to be the kink point for the initiation of cyclogenesis. If you look at the NAM's 33 hour chart below, you can see two weak low centers situated some 300 naut miles seaward of the mid and upper mid Atlantic regions... Connecting these two with a stationary boundary, and than a weak cold front subtended beneath to the outer Bahamas is where the NAM is assessing the baroclinic axis will be just prior to the main show.

nam_namer_027_1000_500_thick.gif

It is not unreasonable to question that as being too far east considering the flow in the deep layer is already beginning to parallel the coast well prior to this 33 hour time frame. Very subtle variances in the nearer term can blow up in time to mean a different result and trust me, 30 hours is plenty of time to adjust - that happened in Dec 2005, where it really wasn't clear until the day just before what would like play out.

Agree with all of this, 18z models be damned

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Man... Jim Cantore just tore the American models apart on TWC, lol.  Saying the European has been advertising a relatively low impact event and now that appears to be what will take place.  He reference Hurricane Sandy when the ECM nailed that from 4-5 days out, and the past blizzard where the ECM schooled the GFS.

 

He said that for a country that has so much to lose like we do, with droughts, fires, blizzards, hurricanes, severe weather, etc we should have the best model data in the world. 

That was pretty cool to hear him talk about that stuff on the air.

 

Which is why they should let the private sector fund the climate change stuff and focus on the what we need to save lives and money. All this money going towards voodoo models that are trying to predict how many polar bears will die by yr 2100.

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Well I suppose it could blow up rapidly or models key on the srn energy and bring it west a bit. That's part of the reason I wasn't biting this morning on the 12" the GFS gave me. I'll take an advisory though. Sucks to waste this setup.

that's our one hope-a surprise turn in the models ala Boxing Day 2010....but real quick-has to be by tonight really

would go down as one of the "good" busts of all time too....

-

Regardless, I'm sure there will be alot of "radar looks further west" posts tomorrow...LOL

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Well I suppose it could blow up rapidly or models key on the srn energy and bring it west a bit. That's part of the reason I wasn't biting this morning on the 12" the GFS gave me. I'll take an advisory though. Sucks to waste this setup.

 

If you get 4" then the wasted set-up has to be considered averted for the CP even if more was potenially on the table.  2 weeks ago it would have been naked snow angels for that.

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Man... Jim Cantore just tore the American models apart on TWC, lol. Saying the European has been advertising a relatively low impact event and now that appears to be what will take place. He reference Hurricane Sandy when the ECM nailed that from 4-5 days out, and the past blizzard where the ECM schooled the GFS.

He said that for a country that has so much to lose like we do, with droughts, fires, blizzards, hurricanes, severe weather, etc we should have the best model data in the world.

That was pretty cool to hear him talk about that stuff on the air.

Some of us have been saying this for years. The met community is finally admitting what many of us have known for yrs
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If you get 4" then the wasted set-up has to be considered averted for the CP even if more was potenially on the table.  2 weeks ago it would have been naked snow angels for that.

 

Of course, but from a met standpoint when I look at this...that's explosive. I don't mean to sound snobby when it comes to 4" of snow...just looking at the big picture. This low will explode near NS...it's a shame it can't be closer that's all. One stupid little s/w in NY state is all that is in the way.

 

Who knows, maybe 00z will come west..lol.

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Some of us have been saying this for years. The met community is finally admitting what many of us have known for yrs

 

Yeah I'm starting to become a believer.  Its been a rough stretch for the GFS with some fairly wild swings...its either too amped or too weak. 

 

I just think what's more interesting is how the ECMWF generally doesn't witness as much swing from model run to model run.  Its not waaaay out there and then waaaay back the other way the next run.  If it moves towards a different solution, it seems to do so in gradual steps.

 

Either way, getting way OT. 

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Yeah I'm starting to become a believer. Its been a rough stretch for the GFS with some fairly wild swings...its either too amped or too weak.

I just think what's more interesting is how the ECMWF generally doesn't witness as much swing from model run to model run. Its not waaaay out there and then waaaay back the other way the next run. If it moves towards a different solution, it seems to do so in gradual steps.

Either way, getting way OT.

Its unusable. No met should use it for anything except to wipe with
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Yeah I'm starting to become a believer.  Its been a rough stretch for the GFS with some fairly wild swings...its either too amped or too weak. 

 

I just think what's more interesting is how the ECMWF generally doesn't witness as much swing from model run to model run.  Its not waaaay out there and then waaaay back the other way the next run.  If it moves towards a different solution, it seems to do so in gradual steps.

 

Either way, getting way OT. 

 

That to me is the biggest thing with the Euro.  I mean, it was horrible with this system two days ago.  But it also didn't overextend like the NCEP guidance.  It's a more cautious model in general that seems less prone to violent swings like we get with NCEP.  I think that's in the algorithms they use more than anything else.  I think I'd rather have a Euro type deal the other night where it never really showed a bigger hit and it semi-happened vs the NCEP stuff which varied from bigger hit to nothing almost every 6 hours for two days.

 

Scott's right we've got to get away from spending tens/hundreds of millions on pet projects for professors at universities and spend more on the immediate need of accurate forecasting. 

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i don't want the models to be perfect. part of the art of forecasting is figuring out where they suck...what they don't do well etc. perfect modeling is my weather nightmare.

That to me is the biggest thing with the Euro.  I mean, it was horrible with this system two days ago.  But it also didn't overextend like the NCEP guidance.  It's a more cautious model in general that seems less prone to violent swings like we get with NCEP.  I think that's in the algorithms they use more than anything else.  I think I'd rather have a Euro type deal the other night where it never really showed a bigger hit and it semi-happened vs the NCEP stuff which varied from bigger hit to nothing almost every 6 hours for two days.

 

Scott's right we've got to get away from spending tens/hundreds of millions on pet projects for professors at universities and spend more on the immediate need of accurate forecasting. 

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i don't want the models to be perfect. part of the art of forecasting is figuring out where they suck...what they don't do well etc. perfect modeling is my weather nightmare.

 

 

Don't think that would ever happen, To many variables, Skill would probably improve, But 100% accuracy, Don't think so

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i don't want the models to be perfect. part of the art of forecasting is figuring out where they suck...what they don't do well etc. perfect modeling is my weather nightmare.

 

Downtime so I don't think anyone minds the OT...but...

 

Oh I agree, perfect models take away the need for red taggers and let's face it, we're way, way away from perfect models.   That said the problem with the American guidance compared to say the Canadian and Euro is the instability.  It just varies wildly sometimes every six hours.   I'm not convinced the issue is the schemes as much as it might be something programmed into the others to mute out detected changes at initialization.  IE, the Euro people figured out that there's a limit to what the model can do and instead of the model bouncing because a small vortmax was 32 units vs 28, it smooths out the change over a few runs/prevents massive run to run changes.  The NAM....it's as if it's starting over completely every six hours...the Forrest Gump Box of Chocolates approach.  You can see this particularly at 500mb.  The NAM just seems to have massive swings in strength of features even at 6-18 hours where the GFS/Euro much less.  No doubt this plays a huge roll in why the NAM is so unstable.

 

The Euro seems to slowly plod towards a solution like it did with the 4" snows the other night.  It never quite made it all the way and was kind of bad, but it also didn't overshoot and deliver a region wide advisory/warning event like the NCEP guidance did at times.  The Canadians seem to have figured this out too, their stuff has been decent.  This storm a little erratic, but they've been on the big storm bus all along.

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The Euro seems to slowly plod towards a solution like it did with the 4" snows the other night.  It never quite made it all the way and was kind of bad, but it also didn't overshoot and deliver a region wide advisory/warning event like the NCEP guidance did at times.  The Canadians seem to have figured this out too, their stuff has been decent.  This storm a little erratic, but they've been on the big storm bus all along.

 

We have seen that some the straight model grids produced from the GEM are pretty fantastic at times. Especially noticeable with sky grids. Obviously there is a focus on weather that might affect Canadian territory, so I'm guessing the model was designed with that in mind. New England fits into that category often enough. It is usually the first model to catch onto coastal stratus, always picks up on cloud streets following a cold front, and really does well with upslope clouds. It'll be interesting to see how the model evolves with the new resolution changes.

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i don't want the models to be perfect. part of the art of forecasting is figuring out where they suck...what they don't do well etc. perfect modeling is my weather nightmare.

impossible....will never happen. i would argue that in some ways we have gotten worse over the last 20 years due to literally too many models using differing assumptions that have just muddied the forecasting waters.

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impossible....will never happen. i would argue that in some ways we have gotten worse over the last 20 years due to literally too many models using differing assumptions that have just muddied the forecasting waters.

i would argue it's not even close - we are way better than 20 years ago. 

 

but again, i'm not worried about perfect modeling. it was really sarcasm.  

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