Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 lost in those whole mess is a frigid night tomorrow pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GFS looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This should be an absolute textbook sat image tomorrow around 15-18z of a bomb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GFS looks improved for BOS SE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This should be an absolute textbook sat image tomorrow around 15-18z of a bomb. GFS is epic. It's closing off at 5h earlier and a little NW of the 18z run. Blizzard on the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Gfs verifies the box map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 BOS just over .5 it looks like before I see the text data in a few, ACK over 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Awfully close with the H7 back bent WF near and after 12z tomorrow. It's feast or famine up this way. This isn't a CCB setup on the NW fringe..will be extremely interesting to see what happens. GFS says we get the goods. Scott and Phil get smoked either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 gfs argues for some good totals right into downtown BOS despite the .5" qpf....that run would probably be 8"+ at logan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 GFS looks great for eastern areas. I think it's a bit overdone back this way but should be a sweet band out toward BOS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I'd be willing to bet if the GFS verified as is, HYA, PTown, probably Falmouth verify blizzard conditions for 3-5 hours. That's nasty. I'll stand by the thought that the heavy precip gets further NW than modeled, solid hit for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I'd be willing to bet if the GFS verified as is, HYA, PTown, probably Falmouth verify blizzard conditions for 3-5 hours. That's nasty. I'll stand by the thought that the heavy precip gets further NW than modeled, solid hit for many. Not trying to say anything but 90 mins ago you were the least optimistic you said... nevertheless, the GFS supports your current thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 REALLY liking my spot for this one (Brewster, MA). Here's to snow! Good luck to all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Awfully close with the H7 back bent WF near and after 12z tomorrow. It's feast or famine up this way. This isn't a CCB setup on the NW fringe..will be extremely interesting to see what happens. GFS says we get the goods. Scott and Phil get smoked either way. re: the ccb - you mean that in the traditional sense of how we discuss it on the board? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Worth taking a trip to E Fal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Brewster, Hyannis, Chatham, Nantucket, Provincetown all should get an epic event. I'll stand by my 4-8 for the Boston area city and immediate environs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Worth taking a trip to E Fal? did you last week? that storm was worth it. this will be good but nothing like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Nevermind the QPF, here are the features to watch. H7 backbent WF, Notice the front extending from the 700mb low on NW. This separates warmer and more moist NE flow, from colder and drier flow at H7. This serves as a frontogenesis focus. Also, notice the uniform 850-500vvs approching the Cape. and H5 vvs through the roof. It's my experience that you don't have to focus on the exact area where the lift is occurring, but also just downwind. Almost like the "advection" of omega. Snowgrowth due to lift on pne area between 10,000-18,000 feet will get carried a decent distance away from the source region. IF...if the GFS is right..could be fun here in ern ma. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Totals thru 0z MON BOS: .57" PWM: .18" ACK: 1.3" ORH: .28" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 oh no doubt, you guys got destroyed. i'm glad to not have. what're the winds looking like down there tonight/tomorrow? did you last week? that storm was worth it. this will be good but nothing like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 re: the ccb - you mean that in the traditional sense of how we discuss it on the board? Yeah I mean up here, I don't see this as a conveyor belt of moisture per se. Almost more mid level stuff. Sort of like HVN last week, while we got the CCB. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yeah I mean up here, I don't see this as a conveyor belt of moisture per se. Almost more mid level stuff. Sort of like HVN last week, while we got the CCB. ok yeah we are on the same page. i just wanted to make sure i was following you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 oh no doubt, you guys got destroyed. i'm glad to not have. what're the winds looking like down there tonight/tomorrow? where you have the house, i'd say gusts to 45 knots...maybe a hair better. this will be a PVC show for wind i think. they do really well on NNW...i could see the outer cape grabbing a 55 knot gust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I wish we could see uncle 12 to 18 output. Looks on board based on 12 hours and pulling away at 24. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 ok yeah we are on the same page. i just wanted to make sure i was following you. It might be for you. I just picture these wall of echoes coming in from the E-SE, and then getting smacked and deformed in a N-S band somewhere in se mass if you know what I mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I wish we could see uncle 12 to 18 output. Looks on board based on 12 hours and pulling away at 24. Ukie not having a good storm. I think you verify warning criteria for sure. Question is how much more. This one is going to be nasty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Watch for that CT band to get more organized too. That may be a surprise for those near Kev and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yeah I mean up here, I don't see this as a conveyor belt of moisture per se. Almost more mid level stuff. Sort of like HVN last week, while we got the CCB.it's all connected. But man that gfs is hard to trust. This last euro run will tell all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 it's all connected. But man that gfs is hard to trust. This last euro run will tell all. Yeah definitely all connected, just think BOS is a bit too far west too get the firehose heading to the Cape..hopefully near the pivot point of the mid level deformation area. You can already see echoes feeding into the Jersey shore band from the SE, and the first echoes from the bombing low on OKX extended range. The euro wasn't too far off at 12z, but from what I remember..probably east with that stuff by 30 miles or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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