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ORH_wxman

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I'd be willing to bet if the GFS verified as is, HYA, PTown, probably Falmouth verify blizzard conditions for 3-5 hours.  That's nasty. 

 

I'll stand by the thought that the heavy precip gets further NW than modeled, solid hit for many.

Not trying to say anything but 90 mins ago you were the least optimistic you said... nevertheless, the GFS supports your current thoughts. 

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Awfully close with the H7 back bent WF near and after 12z tomorrow. It's feast or famine up this way. This isn't a CCB setup on the NW fringe..will be extremely interesting to see what happens. GFS says we get the goods. Scott and Phil get smoked either way. 

re: the ccb - you mean that in the traditional sense of how we discuss it on the board?

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Nevermind the QPF, here are the features to watch.

 

H7 backbent WF, Notice the front extending from the 700mb low on NW. This separates warmer and more moist NE flow, from colder and drier flow at H7. This serves as a frontogenesis focus. Also, notice the uniform 850-500vvs approching the Cape. and H5 vvs through the roof. It's my experience that you don't have to focus on the exact area where the lift is occurring, but also just downwind. Almost like the "advection" of omega. Snowgrowth due to lift on pne area between 10,000-18,000 feet will get carried a decent distance away from the source region. IF...if the GFS is right..could be fun here in ern ma.

 

post-33-0-34473100-1361072630_thumb.gif

 

post-33-0-72993100-1361072605_thumb.gif

 

post-33-0-34473100-1361072630_thumb.gif

post-33-0-13089500-1361072639_thumb.gif

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oh no doubt,  you guys got destroyed.   i'm glad to not have.      what're the winds looking like down there tonight/tomorrow?

where you have the house, i'd say gusts to 45 knots...maybe a hair better. this will be a PVC show for wind i think. they do really well on NNW...i could see the outer cape grabbing a 55 knot gust

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it's all connected. But man that gfs is hard to trust. This last euro run will tell all.

 

Yeah definitely all connected, just think BOS is a bit too far west too get the firehose heading to the Cape..hopefully near the pivot point of the mid level deformation area. You can already see echoes feeding into the Jersey shore band from the SE, and the first echoes from the bombing low on OKX extended range. The euro wasn't too far off at 12z, but from what I remember..probably east with that stuff by 30 miles or so.

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