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ORH_wxman

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Patience is not our strong point.

I'm nervous for the 8+ here.

Btw check out the radar. Returns moving south over Plymouth county

You could get that in 3 hrs if the band develops. Like Phil and I mentioned, we either get banding or we dont. This isn't a CCB deal IMO. High stakes. The radar to the south really won't light up until after 1am.

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I'm thinking it gets to BOS and perhaps west, but this is what I mean by high stakes. If we get it for even three hours it could be 2-3"+ per hours snows and there goes the forecast.

 

But if I had to guess...I would lean conservative here while Phil has a good chance of getting hit good. I think the wall of snow stops just to my south.

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The drier air does concern me a bit, hopefully that goes away aloft as winds try to go more NE. ORH not even reporting -SN.

There was a bit of a dew point depression present initially in the soundings, but eventually the levels as mentioned do moisten out. However, will take a bit more left the further west, and the area of lift is modeled to maybe make it to BOS, not much further west. It will really be a sharp cut off with subsidence, especially on NW flow that isn't overly weak. 

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getting a closer look at that 00z NAM run...it's essentially on board now. doubled its precip output and has 60 knot winds inside the mixing layer tomorrow am

 

Yeah you guys will get hit good...feel pretty high on that. Maybe not 2'...but a heck of a storm I think.

 

I'm on the fence here...I'm worried (in a good way) that the band near NJ may actually hang out nearby or just south tomorrow morning. 

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