Quincy Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 850mb frontogenesis analysis, FWIW: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I'm less excited than everyone else right now it seems. I don't follow many of the mesos, I just don't like the lack of real rapid development to the north of the developing low. We'll see, I'm actually a little concerned. Back to Ben-Hur. I think we're right on track. The model suite was generally around 1002-1003 mb at 00z, and HPC's latest analysis has the low at 1001. Now if I leave work and it's not down in the mid 990s then we'll be off the rails a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Relax, as long as you didn't go 8-12..you are probably ok. Conservative has always beent he way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 N at GON, but still NNW at IJD. SFZ NNE and PVD NE. Such a close call for eastern Conn., but my gut tells me the advisories don't verify, except perhaps eastern New London County. Yeah I could see a spot 4" out toward Ginx but we'll see. I don't get the near-blizzard stuff from OKX. Seems overdone. I highly doubt anyone in CT manages to string together 1/4SM +SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Relax, as long as you didn't go 8-12..you are probably ok. Conservative has always beent he way to go. Stay the course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Winds are NNE here. Steady snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yeah I could see a spot 4" out toward Ginx but we'll see. I don't get the near-blizzard stuff from OKX. Seems overdone. I highly doubt anyone in CT manages to string together 1/4SM +SN. I think the majority of our CWA might see lower visibilities from blowing snow once the accumulation has stopped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Modfan Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Just barely spitting snow up here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Development of the CCB is underway to the north of the surface low. Low is more west then the 00z models had at 24 hours. Tonights 00z models pretty much tell the tale as NAM will be within 12 hours of the event for a more accurate depiction of the surface low track. GFS should stay the course. NAM should tick west some more for a general consensus of 6-12". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Looks like the NAM will be west of 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Development of the CCB is underway to the north of the surface low. Low is more west then the 00z models had at 24 hours. Tonights 00z models pretty much tell the tale as NAM will be within 12 hours of the event for a more accurate depiction of the surface low track. GFS should stay the course. NAM should tick west some more for a general consensus of 6-12". Lol - if pickles, rollo and ctblizz somehow had a child...it would be you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 You can see cyclogenesis is underway from the satellite imagery right now. The area outlined in blue is the frontal band, from which vorticity maxima can act to induce low development. The area outlined in black is the cusp which has formed in response to lower level advective processes associated with low pressure development. Now that we see this arcing back to the west, we know that this is no longer an upper level system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 00z NAM says 6 hour pressure falls of 10mb. Its already too far east at initialization. Its already wrong at 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 So close, but just offshore for most....oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Lol - if pickles, rollo and ctblizz somehow had a child...it would be you. lol, low pressure development is underway. Potential for this system to come west is still in the cards. NAM is wrong already so it doesn't surprise me that it stays east. What a horrible model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 lol, low pressure development is underway. Potential for this system to come west is still in the cards. NAM is wrong already so it doesn't surprise me that it stays east. What a horrible model. Where exactly do you think the low center is? It seems in pretty good agreement with the 00z HPC analysis and MSAS obs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 NAM deepens low at 25mb/12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 So close, but just offshore for most....oh well. Looks good for RI - E MA - CC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Where exactly do you think the low center is? It seems in pretty good agreement with the 00z HPC analysis and MSAS obs. The NAM closes off at 500mb for sure by about 15-16z..it actually hints even earlier. That's a huge win for the GFS if it's correct. And also for eastern New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Where exactly do you think the low center is? It seems in pretty good agreement with the 00z HPC analysis and MSAS obs. Just SE of Hatteras, NC. I can see what you mean. To me its too far east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Chris explained it perfectly. The low looks on track, but a difference of 30 miles means everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Rollo, 15z-16z is the worst weather this storm will offer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Chris explained it perfectly. The low looks on track, but a difference of 30 miles means everything. I must be looking at satellite imagery and mesoanalysis wrong, because the NAM just looks to far to the east in its track up the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 NAM misses by 50 miles of having one heck of a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I must be looking at satellite imagery and mesoanalysis wrong, because the NAM just looks to far to the east in its track up the coastline. It's a little east, but not horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 NAM is around .75" of QPF for Outer Cape, much better QPF then any of its previous runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It's a little east, but not horrible. A little could mean a lot for you me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It's a little east, but not horrible. Thats the difference of a mega blizzard or just a minor snowstorm for us, Cape Cod, MA lies on the edge of having a major blizzard. Those few miles is the difference between 5" and 25" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Relax, as long as you didn't go 8-12..you are probably ok. Conservative has always beent he way to go. So you don't think this is going to work out? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
free_man Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 For who? NAM misses by 50 miles of having one heck of a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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