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ORH_wxman

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I'm less excited than everyone else right now it seems.  I don't follow many of the mesos, I just don't like the lack of real rapid development to the north of the developing low.  We'll see, I'm actually a little concerned.  Back to Ben-Hur.

 

I think we're right on track. The model suite was generally around 1002-1003 mb at 00z, and HPC's latest analysis has the low at 1001. Now if I leave work and it's not down in the mid 990s then we'll be off the rails a bit.

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N at GON, but still NNW at IJD.

 

SFZ NNE and PVD NE.

 

Such a close call for eastern Conn., but my gut tells me the advisories don't verify, except perhaps eastern New London County.

 

Yeah I could see a spot 4" out toward Ginx but we'll see. I don't get the near-blizzard stuff from OKX. Seems overdone. I highly doubt anyone in CT manages to string together 1/4SM +SN. 

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Yeah I could see a spot 4" out toward Ginx but we'll see. I don't get the near-blizzard stuff from OKX. Seems overdone. I highly doubt anyone in CT manages to string together 1/4SM +SN. 

 

I think the majority of our CWA might see lower visibilities from blowing snow once the accumulation has stopped.

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Development of the CCB is underway to the north of the surface low.  Low is more west then the 00z models had at 24 hours.  Tonights 00z models pretty much tell the tale as NAM will be within 12 hours of the event for a more accurate depiction of the surface low track.  GFS should stay the course.  NAM should tick west some more for a general consensus of 6-12".

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Development of the CCB is underway to the north of the surface low. Low is more west then the 00z models had at 24 hours. Tonights 00z models pretty much tell the tale as NAM will be within 12 hours of the event for a more accurate depiction of the surface low track. GFS should stay the course. NAM should tick west some more for a general consensus of 6-12".

Lol - if pickles, rollo and ctblizz somehow had a child...it would be you.

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You can see cyclogenesis is underway from the satellite imagery right now. The area outlined in blue is the frontal band, from which vorticity maxima can act to induce low development. The area outlined in black is the cusp which has formed in response to lower level advective processes associated with low pressure development. Now that we see this arcing back to the west, we know that this is no longer an upper level system.

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lol, low pressure development is underway.  Potential for this system to come west is still in the cards.  NAM is wrong already so it doesn't surprise me that it stays east.  What a horrible model.

 

Where exactly do you think the low center is? It seems in pretty good agreement with the 00z HPC analysis and MSAS obs.

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