OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I thought the GFS showed that too. It really blew up H7 frontogenesis as the low developed but sort of weakened the stuff overhead now....or at least tied into it. That's exactly what the GFS does. Just peters out the mid level fgen over the interior until things really get going on the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Moon visible now. Hopefully not a sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Everything is converging just east of NC. Satellite imagery and radar imagery suggests storm is centered at around 35.5n: 74.8w. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Overture of Ben-Hur right now on TCM kind of like the overture in this system. Meh, like everyone says it doesn't get together until later. I'm a little meh'd by the presentation so far to be honest aside or the band east of New Jersey burying a pod of whales. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Low is now clearly visible on IR imagery just southeast of HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Moon visible now. Hopefully not a sign.Jerry said pull up your pants, had that a while ago then laid down a 1/4" since then, driveway now getting covered too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Jerry said pull up your pants, had that a while ago then laid down a 1/4" since then, driveway now getting covered too. It's going to be quiet for hours anyways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Max Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 The two s/w's haven't phased yet so that's why no boom yet. But judging from WV loop the two are definitely closer together than any model have them at this time so there are still positives out there, but probably too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Looks like boom to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I think Whindam and New London have a better shot at verifying an advisory or better than Hillsborough. In fact, based on the GFS mid-level panels and the current radar, the CT counties look to get hit pretty hard if the GFS is basically correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 gf's sister said it's raining in salem, not that wx savvy but they are on the water. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It looks like boom off the HSE coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Radar looks pretty good along and east of I-91 in CT. Also, HRRR shows the column saturating pretty nicely in that area over the next few hours. Maybe KTOL makes out okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 latest btv wrf meso went well....east not putting a ton of stock in it...but not really a good sign imo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Radar looks pretty good along and east of I-91 in CT. Also, HRRR shows the column saturating pretty nicely in that area over the next few hours. Maybe KTOL makes out okay. Steady light snow kicked in about 5 mins ago after an hour of weenie flakes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Radar looks pretty good along and east of I-91 in CT. Also, HRRR shows the column saturating pretty nicely in that area over the next few hours. Maybe KTOL makes out okay. I dunno... still all virga. Big dew point depressions in CT and across Long Island. The snow in GON/WST has tapered off as well. The OKX sounding is very dry in the boundary layer. Bad sign with NW flow continuing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Looks like boom to me. I'd like to see the area east of Elizabeth City erupt a bit more than it is now. The blah models did very little there right now instead favoring later/east. The Euro/GFS got things going pretty good about now which I wish I could say I see. A little ? on that one, maybe a flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Overture of Ben-Hur right now on TCM kind of like the overture in this system. Meh, like everyone says it doesn't get together until later. I'm a little meh'd by the presentation so far to be honest aside or the band east of New Jersey burying a pod of whales. watching Planet of the Apes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Back to 1/25/00. I was at the sne wx conference which in those days (2002) occurred in early November at wachusett. I took a seat for dinner and happened to be sitting next to Louis Ucellini, then head of Ncep, now head of all of NWS. Remember that was the fall after the failed winter of 2001-02. In mid October there was a profound pattern change to cold and ncep models were ending it. He flat out didn't buy it long term and he was right. He also related how "screwed" he wqs 1/25/00 with 10 inches wile the next town over got much more...lol. We're all weenies including my valentine, Typhoon Tip (j/k John). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Kev's going to be right near that sharp cutoff from virtually nothing to a few inches. Your reports will be very important! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 First flakes flying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I'd like to see the area east of Elizabeth City erupt a bit more than it is now. The blah models did very little there right now instead favoring later/east. The Euro/GFS got things going pretty good about now which I wish I could say I see. A little ? on that one, maybe a flag. You can see the cusp has formed from beneath the main frontal band off the coast. The low development is well underway. It will be interesting to see what kind of buoy data we get, with a few still offline due to Sandy and the blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This thing is going to go really far east. I don't think that's in question really. It just depends on the evolution of the mid level circulations as to how robust and far west the precip shield gets Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Finally getting light snow now after a ton of virga. That band we had earlier saturated the column a bit. Also raised my surface RH by about 15%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This thing is going to go really far east. I don't think that's in question really. It just depends on the evolution of the mid level circulations as to how robust and far west the precip shield gets HRRR doesn't bring measurable past KGON lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I dunno... still all virga. Big dew point depressions in CT and across Long Island. The snow in GON/WST has tapered off as well. The OKX sounding is very dry in the boundary layer. Bad sign with NW flow continuing. N at GON, but still NNW at IJD. SFZ NNE and PVD NE. Such a close call for eastern Conn., but my gut tells me the advisories don't verify, except perhaps eastern New London County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I dunno... still all virga. Big dew point depressions in CT and across Long Island. The snow in GON/WST has tapered off as well. The OKX sounding is very dry in the boundary layer. Bad sign with NW flow continuing. Your good meteorology is likely to win the day I'd guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 latest btv wrf meso went well....east not putting a ton of stock in it...but not really a good sign imo. I'm less excited than everyone else right now it seems. I don't follow many of the mesos, I just don't like the lack of real rapid development to the north of the developing low. We'll see, I'm actually a little concerned. Back to Ben-Hur. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Srefs qpf shifted slightly east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 HRRR doesn't bring measurable past KGON lol By the time the HRRR updated the other night to figure out it was going to snow 1", 4" had already fallen. It's been utterly useless so many times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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