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ORH_wxman

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I thought the GFS showed that too. It really blew up H7 frontogenesis as the low developed but sort of weakened the stuff overhead now....or at least tied into it.

 

 

That's exactly what the GFS does. Just peters out the mid level fgen over the interior until things really get going on the coast.

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Radar looks pretty good along and east of I-91 in CT. Also, HRRR shows the column saturating pretty nicely in that area over the next few hours. Maybe KTOL makes out okay.

 

I dunno... still all virga. Big dew point depressions in CT and across Long Island. The snow in GON/WST has tapered off as well. 

 

The OKX sounding is very dry in the boundary layer. Bad sign with NW flow continuing.

 

OKX.gif

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Back to 1/25/00.

I was at the sne wx conference which in those days (2002) occurred in early November at wachusett. I took a seat for dinner and happened to be sitting next to Louis Ucellini, then head of Ncep, now head of all of NWS. Remember that was the fall after the failed winter of 2001-02. In mid October there was a profound pattern change to cold and ncep models were ending it. He flat out didn't buy it long term and he was right. He also related how "screwed" he wqs 1/25/00 with 10 inches wile the next town over got much more...lol. We're all weenies including my valentine, Typhoon Tip (j/k John).

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I'd like to see the area east of Elizabeth City erupt a bit more than it is now.   The blah models did very little there right now instead favoring later/east.   The Euro/GFS got things going pretty good about now which I wish I could say I see.  A little ? on that one, maybe a flag.

 

You can see the cusp has formed from beneath the main frontal band off the coast. The low development is well underway.

 

It will be interesting to see what kind of buoy data we get, with a few still offline due to Sandy and the blizzard.

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I dunno... still all virga. Big dew point depressions in CT and across Long Island. The snow in GON/WST has tapered off as well. 

 

The OKX sounding is very dry in the boundary layer. Bad sign with NW flow continuing.

N at GON, but still NNW at IJD.

 

SFZ NNE and PVD NE.

 

Such a close call for eastern Conn., but my gut tells me the advisories don't verify, except perhaps eastern New London County.

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latest btv wrf meso went well....east not putting a ton of stock in it...but not really a good sign imo.

 

I'm less excited than everyone else right now it seems.  I don't follow many of the mesos, I just don't like the lack of real rapid development to the north of the developing low.  We'll see, I'm actually a little concerned.  Back to Ben-Hur.

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