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ORH_wxman

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the main show really isn't until probably after 10z tomorrow AM. you'll kill your eyes if you follow this min by min because the majority of the "real storm" isn't going to cross through this region until after daylight. in fact, aside from the weenie light snows going on now to the west of here, i wouldn't be surprised if there's not a whole lot happening / and on the ground until first thing tomorrow morning. 

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I think radar is pretty good looking for at least the eastern half of SNE and Chris' maps of the isentropic upglide...its def causing some ML frontogensis off the coast of NJ there and its targeting central SNE and will likely shift toward the east as time wears on. But I think this is def a good sign...radar matches up well with the mid-level analysis

 

2ry0nf8.jpg

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the main show really isn't until probably after 10z tomorrow AM. you'll kill your eyes if you follow this min by min because the majority of the "real storm" isn't going to cross through this region until after daylight. in fact, aside from the weenie light snows going on now to the west of here, i wouldn't be surprised if there's not a whole lot happening / and on the ground until first thing tomorrow morning. 

 

 

It wouldnt surprise me if a place like ORH gets 2-3" before you get much at all...then you'll get hit with more of the core dynamics of the developing CCB rather than the ML fronto stuff well to the west.

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This is a throw your hands up situation. No idea of the outcome but I gave my forecast pages back and box seems to agree.

 

 

Yup!   

I'm out for the evening ... catching up with the crew for some brews.  May check in late.   In the meantime, this "looks" different than modeled.  It's either going to go ahead and evolve that way; or be an outstanding example of one of Jerry's  "there's-no-way-this-thing-is-going-to-miss-oh-my-god-why-is-it-sunny" scenarios.  

 

peace

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Yeah, Will -   looks like that action paralleling the coast is in conjunction with the 850/700mb frontal slopes and some gentle upglide - you can see the b. leaf ripping west of that axis;  can almost envision the low rides along the eastern edge of that to bust the models slightly west.  i wonder if the NAM might abruptly show that in tonight's runs.  

 

see yall later

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FWIW, here are some forecasts based solely off of an even blend of the models (Euro, GFS, NAM, SREF and RGEM) and assuming ratios in CT range from 11:1 to 14:1...

 

KTOL: 1-3"
Western CT: <2"
Eastern CT: 2-4", except closing in on 5" near RI border.

 

Minimum: 0.1" (NAM in NW CT)
Maximum: 5.5" (GFS in SE CT)

 

The fact that both the RGEM/Euro are going dry worries me, BUT this is a nowcasting game now. I'm honestly still looking at more data, but I don't think CT gets in on the heavy snow. Eastern Mass. could be a very different story.

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Guys, this "band" to your SW is pure virga. Absolutely nothing here on the island.

This is key. Radar can show whatever it wants, but it all comes back to what's actually being reported on the ground.

 

I looked at the RAP earlier and it had nice reflectivities into CT, but very little precip reaching the ground.

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It wouldnt surprise me if a place like ORH gets 2-3" before you get much at all...then you'll get hit with more of the core dynamics of the developing CCB rather than the ML fronto stuff well to the west.

 

 

That wouldn't surprise me either.

 

It is interesting looking at the various model guidance fgen fields. They are pretty spot on with the band off NJ between 850 and 750 mb. I would think intuition would say this collapsing east as the coastal gets going, as you said. However, the guidance seems to want to weaken it and drift it west as the coastal bombs out, and then the mid level fgen tied to the coastal takes over closer to the shore. If you loop the 4 km NAM reflectivity you can see that, especially evident up this way in New England. Down your way it appears like it may just want to fizzle out in place towards 12z tomorrow.

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That wouldn't surprise me either.

It is interesting looking at the various model guidance fgen fields. They are pretty spot on with the band off NJ between 850 and 750 mb. I would think intuition would say this collapsing east as the coastal gets going, as you said. However, the guidance seems to want to weaken it and drift it west as the coastal bombs out, and then the mid level fgen tied to the coastal takes over closer to the shore. If you loop the 4 km NAM reflectivity you can see that, especially evident up this way in New England. Down your way it appears like it may just want to fizzle out in place towards 12z tomorrow.

I thought the GFS showed that too. It really blew up H7 frontogenesis as the low developed but sort of weakened the stuff overhead now....or at least tied into it.

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