weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This is a throw your hands up situation. No idea of the outcome but I gave my forecast pages back and box seems to agree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ursa99 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Here we go... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 the main show really isn't until probably after 10z tomorrow AM. you'll kill your eyes if you follow this min by min because the majority of the "real storm" isn't going to cross through this region until after daylight. in fact, aside from the weenie light snows going on now to the west of here, i wouldn't be surprised if there's not a whole lot happening / and on the ground until first thing tomorrow morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 I think radar is pretty good looking for at least the eastern half of SNE and Chris' maps of the isentropic upglide...its def causing some ML frontogensis off the coast of NJ there and its targeting central SNE and will likely shift toward the east as time wears on. But I think this is def a good sign...radar matches up well with the mid-level analysis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 17, 2013 Author Share Posted February 17, 2013 the main show really isn't until probably after 10z tomorrow AM. you'll kill your eyes if you follow this min by min because the majority of the "real storm" isn't going to cross through this region until after daylight. in fact, aside from the weenie light snows going on now to the west of here, i wouldn't be surprised if there's not a whole lot happening / and on the ground until first thing tomorrow morning. It wouldnt surprise me if a place like ORH gets 2-3" before you get much at all...then you'll get hit with more of the core dynamics of the developing CCB rather than the ML fronto stuff well to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 i made a half-joke post of 12/26/04 the other day...actually some decent similarities unfolding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It wouldnt surprise me if a place like ORH gets 2-3" before you get much at all...then you'll get hit with more of the core dynamics of the developing CCB rather than the ML fronto stuff well to the west. yeah i agree. i'm not expecting much of anything overnight here. maybe just prior to dawn it gets going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RI Rob Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I'm going with 3-5 in Boston but I'm thinking more on the low end of it tbh.. I hate this setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 This is a throw your hands up situation. No idea of the outcome but I gave my forecast pages back and box seems to agree. Yup! I'm out for the evening ... catching up with the crew for some brews. May check in late. In the meantime, this "looks" different than modeled. It's either going to go ahead and evolve that way; or be an outstanding example of one of Jerry's "there's-no-way-this-thing-is-going-to-miss-oh-my-god-why-is-it-sunny" scenarios. peace Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Definitely a dynamic system... the 1/8th mile visibility with lightning & thundersnow in Charlotte, NC was pretty impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 That fronto band off the Del Marva and NJ looks like its aiming right at KTOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I don't know folks..Maybe I'm hallucinating..but radar looks ominously good to the sw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 i made a half-joke post of 12/26/04 the other day...actually some decent similarities unfolding. Gonna be on the Cape tonight and tomrrow morning, would love to witness something similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I don't know folks..Maybe I'm hallucinating..but radar looks ominously good to the sw Models and I agree with Will. You'll get into that food band for a little while I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yeah, Will - looks like that action paralleling the coast is in conjunction with the 850/700mb frontal slopes and some gentle upglide - you can see the b. leaf ripping west of that axis; can almost envision the low rides along the eastern edge of that to bust the models slightly west. i wonder if the NAM might abruptly show that in tonight's runs. see yall later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChrisM Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I came home for the weekend so Kevin can count on snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I don't know folks..Maybe I'm hallucinating..but radar looks ominously good to the sw Models and I agree with Will. You'll get into that food band for a little while I think. Guidance did a nice job with that band running NE to SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 FWIW, here are some forecasts based solely off of an even blend of the models (Euro, GFS, NAM, SREF and RGEM) and assuming ratios in CT range from 11:1 to 14:1... KTOL: 1-3"Western CT: <2"Eastern CT: 2-4", except closing in on 5" near RI border. Minimum: 0.1" (NAM in NW CT)Maximum: 5.5" (GFS in SE CT) The fact that both the RGEM/Euro are going dry worries me, BUT this is a nowcasting game now. I'm honestly still looking at more data, but I don't think CT gets in on the heavy snow. Eastern Mass. could be a very different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Guidance did a nice job with that band running NE to SW Yes which is why I am silent about here. Do not want to jinx lol. Hoping to grab that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Meant fronto band Kevin, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TWCCraig Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Guys, this "band" to your SW is pure virga. Absolutely nothing here on the island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Guys, this "band" to your SW is pure virga. Absolutely nothing here on the island. This is key. Radar can show whatever it wants, but it all comes back to what's actually being reported on the ground. I looked at the RAP earlier and it had nice reflectivities into CT, but very little precip reaching the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 i made a half-joke post of 12/26/04 the other day...actually some decent similarities unfolding. Yea you might have missed my post a while back but kudos bro, reminds me mucho of that. I will take a 7 and give you 18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 It wouldnt surprise me if a place like ORH gets 2-3" before you get much at all...then you'll get hit with more of the core dynamics of the developing CCB rather than the ML fronto stuff well to the west. That wouldn't surprise me either. It is interesting looking at the various model guidance fgen fields. They are pretty spot on with the band off NJ between 850 and 750 mb. I would think intuition would say this collapsing east as the coastal gets going, as you said. However, the guidance seems to want to weaken it and drift it west as the coastal bombs out, and then the mid level fgen tied to the coastal takes over closer to the shore. If you loop the 4 km NAM reflectivity you can see that, especially evident up this way in New England. Down your way it appears like it may just want to fizzle out in place towards 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yes which is why I am silent about here. Do not want to jinx lol. Hoping to grab that. I resemble that remark, like Phil says all this PRE stuff is just to keep us entertained until boom boom pow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Guys, this "band" to your SW is pure virga. Absolutely nothing here on the island. The real "band" in question is the stuff off of NJ. That has some support for good snowfall rates behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Models and I agree with Will. You'll get into that food band for a little while I think. What is a food band? So is that where my couple of inches comes from..and not the actual coastal? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 That wouldn't surprise me either. It is interesting looking at the various model guidance fgen fields. They are pretty spot on with the band off NJ between 850 and 750 mb. I would think intuition would say this collapsing east as the coastal gets going, as you said. However, the guidance seems to want to weaken it and drift it west as the coastal bombs out, and then the mid level fgen tied to the coastal takes over closer to the shore. If you loop the 4 km NAM reflectivity you can see that, especially evident up this way in New England. Down your way it appears like it may just want to fizzle out in place towards 12z tomorrow. I thought the GFS showed that too. It really blew up H7 frontogenesis as the low developed but sort of weakened the stuff overhead now....or at least tied into it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 I literally could walk the dogs to the WSW line. Thinking 3-4 here hoping for mo.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quincy Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 21z HRRR shows the "Jersey Shore" band collapsing and pretty much missing the western half of New England. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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