CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Def some dry air though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Will have to check 00z mesoanalysis to see if MSLP matches up with the NCEP models to be accurate, but the way it looks right now, its almost spot on to where the 00z GFS had it as well at 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 00z NAM at 24 hours was way too far northeast at 00z Sunday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I follow him on Twitter. He's now in Seattle Where you on mirc? He was wxcentral. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Once the vort max over SC reaches the ocean and positions itself South of the low, watch bombogenesis occur in front of your eyes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 looks like low level winds are NE/NNE near the coast.........and NNW just a bit inland setting up some radar returns that look to move NW over e pym county and NE over NW RI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Where you on mirc? He was wxcentral. Nah WWBB was my first love Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 looks like low level winds are NE/NNE near the coast.........and NNW just a bit inland setting up some radar returns that look to move NW over e pym county and NE over NW RI Most model guidance is in agreement that this current precip continues as weak upglide continues around the 285 K surface (this is roughly around 850 mb tonight). But that insentropic forcing is very well correlated with the current areas of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Most model guidance is in agreement that this current precip continues as weak upglide continues around the 285 K surface (this is roughly around 850 mb tonight). But that insentropic forcing is very well correlated with the current areas of snow. do you have a map that shows the isentropic forcing or anything on SPC that shows it. i may just drive to girlfriends sisters house in salem ma so that maybe i'll see some snow...its snowing there now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Not a fan of those echoes getting eaten away to the NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 do you have a map that shows the isentropic forcing or anything on SPC that shows it. i may just drive to girlfriends sisters house in salem ma so that maybe i'll see some snow...its snowing there now Give me a second to create a screen capture and I can post one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Remember, Rollio is one of 2 who correctly called 1/25/00. The other is Brian Monahan, now a tv met in Florida. Always wondered where Brian ended up. Great guy. We took a pounding over those 24 hours from Larry c, dt, toga Joe and others. Was an awesome event to unfold. I don't see this as anything like that in outcome but similar in the sense that models seem to be really having a hard time with which s/w to focus surface development. I've been out for 4-5 hours so haven't paid attention a ton although I do see two positive signs. One is the lack of apparent explosive development east of the Gulf Stream. Second is the obvious, strong spiral coming across the Carolina's that seems to want to be the dominant player as the euro/gfs show. I guess also the rap is a plus as it closes the. 500mb contour later. It's late in its run so will have to be watched for consistency. I'd like to see things start to fire more obviously soon. Noaa has this area in 8-10 which is good as of now. 8-12 or 7-11 would be a more comfortable range. But, need to see things firing in the next 3-4 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 NAM and GFS 12z runs were too far east with the surface low for their 12 hour plots for 00z Sunday. Low is closer to Hatteras, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Rollo, things are coming together east of HSE on satellite and radar imagery both show this well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Low is SE of Hatteras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Look at that fronto band south of Jersey. Probably the western extent of the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Lightning continues to explode over the western Atlantic ocean and up the coast a little. Off the coast from SC to DE. Tells me that no new lightning from our upper level disturbance over central SC means upper level energy transfer to the NC low. I think we will see our bombogenesis begin to take place soon as one low consolidates east of HSE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattb65 Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Very warm in the BL still, how long before we start cooling off to accum tonight? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Look at that fronto band south of Jersey. Probably the western extent of the precip. Yes it's 30 miles or so west of where the 18z NAM had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Kevs landphoon over CAE , nice radar sig Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Not a fan of those echoes getting eaten away to the NW. 29/15 here, there's definitley some dry air, I watched the lower cloud deck get vaporized here this afternoon. You could see the clouds to the E justing hitting a force field. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Very warm in the BL still, how long before we start cooling off to accum tonight? I thnk as soon as heavier snow starts as dews are in the high 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Pretty strung out low forming. Maybe it will compact over time. http://www.spc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfctest/new/viewsector.php?sector=17&parm=pchg&underlay=1 Buoy off Hatteras is 29.64 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 23z RAP transfers the energy from the central SC disturbance into the HSE disturbance or low, and becomes one southeast of Cape Cod, MA. RAP seems closer to the coastline. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OceanStWx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 do you have a map that shows the isentropic forcing or anything on SPC that shows it. i may just drive to girlfriends sisters house in salem ma so that maybe i'll see some snow...its snowing there now This is the 285 K surface, with dashed lines being pressure on the surface. Black streamlines represent winds on the surface, and the shading is a measure of saturation at that level (anything in blue or colder color is saturated). You can see how streamlines are onshore and "climbing" to higher pressures. This indicates air is lifting as it rides over the cold dome. This onshore flow aloft continues until about 12z, when mid level winds come around to the NE and the coastal low pressure dynamics take over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 23z RAP finally closes off a 700mb low southeast of KACK around 16-18 hours, expect the heaviest snows then when the 700mb closes off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Def some dry air though.Yea just saw the moon through the flakes lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 1002mb low just east of HSE according to latest 00z mesoanalysis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yea just saw the moon through the flakes lolDid you think it'd be snowing here already?weenie flakes but still in the air Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 17, 2013 Share Posted February 17, 2013 Yea just saw the moon through the flakes lol Pull up your pants. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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