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ORH_wxman

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looks like low level winds are NE/NNE near the coast.........and NNW just a bit inland setting up some radar returns that look to move NW over e pym county and NE over NW RI

 

 

Most model guidance is in agreement that this current precip continues as weak upglide continues around the 285 K surface (this is roughly around 850 mb tonight). But that insentropic forcing is very well correlated with the current areas of snow.

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Most model guidance is in agreement that this current precip continues as weak upglide continues around the 285 K surface (this is roughly around 850 mb tonight). But that insentropic forcing is very well correlated with the current areas of snow.

do you have a map that shows the isentropic forcing or anything on SPC that shows it.

 

i may just drive to girlfriends sisters house in salem ma so that maybe i'll see some snow...its snowing there now

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Remember, Rollio is one of 2 who correctly called 1/25/00. The other is Brian Monahan, now a tv met in Florida.

Always wondered where Brian ended up. Great guy. We took a pounding over those 24 hours from Larry c, dt, toga Joe and others. Was an awesome event to unfold.

I don't see this as anything like that in outcome but similar in the sense that models seem to be really having a hard time with which s/w to focus surface development. I've been out for 4-5 hours so haven't paid attention a ton although I do see two positive signs.

One is the lack of apparent explosive development east of the Gulf Stream. Second is the obvious, strong spiral coming across the Carolina's that seems to want to be the dominant player as the euro/gfs show. I guess also the rap is a plus as it closes the. 500mb contour later. It's late in its run so will have to be watched for consistency.

I'd like to see things start to fire more obviously soon. Noaa has this area in 8-10 which is good as of now. 8-12 or 7-11 would be a more comfortable range. But, need to see things firing in the next 3-4 hours.

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Lightning continues to explode over the western Atlantic ocean and up the coast a little.  Off the coast from SC to DE.  Tells me that no new lightning from our upper level disturbance over central SC means upper level energy transfer to the NC low.  I think we will see our bombogenesis begin to take place soon as one low consolidates east of HSE.

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do you have a map that shows the isentropic forcing or anything on SPC that shows it.

 

i may just drive to girlfriends sisters house in salem ma so that maybe i'll see some snow...its snowing there now

 

This is the 285 K surface, with dashed lines being pressure on the surface. Black streamlines represent winds on the surface, and the shading is a measure of saturation at that level (anything in blue or colder color is saturated).

 

You can see how streamlines are onshore and "climbing" to higher pressures. This indicates air is lifting as it rides over the cold dome. This onshore flow aloft continues until about 12z, when mid level winds come around to the NE and the coastal low pressure dynamics take over.

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