dendrite Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I can't see precip, but looked similar to the op.The mean was a microhair west of the op for both parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 1-3 Kevin 2-4 BOS 3-6 messenger 6-12 Phil Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 A little tid bit, ISP and BOS both broke daily snowfall records on last Fri and Sat from guess what year? .....1994 that in your front door. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 1-3 Kevin 2-4 BOS 3-6 messenger 6-12 Phil I would bring 3-6 to the river in CT and Mass and the 2-4 to the NY border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Rollo Tomasi, you are right, the question becomes the nature of the phase potential, what becomes of it? Will the northern stream shortwave phase with the shortwave over MX or will it glide on by and out to sea? I just don't know what will happen. GFS pulls it all together in the base of the trough which makes some sense to me. The RAP...would pretty well support the GFS. The NAM is garbage. Toss it. I haven't looked at how the NAM relates to the Euro...don't care either We'll know soon enough, but I feel the NAM can be absolutely tossed into the shi* pile. The top and bottom images are the GFS/RAP and are fairly similar, NAM is the odd duck in the middle...too much focus on the lead s/w getting away. Crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I like when Rolloa analyzes 500 in a sick way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bryan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hey guys, been away since Wednesday, can anyone give me a quick summary on what's going on? Seems like there's 0 confidence in whats going to happen. Just got an alert on my phone for WSW here in Kingston. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Hey guys, been away since Wednesday, can anyone give me a quick summary on what's going on? Seems like there's 0 confidence in whats going to happen. Just got an alert on my phone for WSW here in Kingston. It may snow. (A lot or a little) Your guess is as good as any other's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I would bring 3-6 to the river in CT and Mass and the 2-4 to the NY border Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Basically we got a southern stream shortwave over MX and we have a northern stream shortwave over the Dakatos diving southeastward. The question is: will the two streams phase together to get our mega storm to come westward? Also another point is that the GFS closes off the H5 low much sooner then any other guidance does and it will be interesting to see the 18z GFS continue its solution staying west. If the 18z run stays west as its 12z run had, then does this mean the 00z consensus move west as well. With the GFS having its usual SE bias in the 18z run, will this greatly increase the westward track more? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFs really is robust overnight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 15, 2013 Author Share Posted February 15, 2013 GFs really is robust overnight Borderline advisory for the interior just for the first part. I'm a bit skeptical on that, but I guess it wouldn't be a shock to see more 3" amounts than 1" amounts. Certainly within the realm of uncertainty. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This guy used to be on FOX in Hfd. Is he in BOS now? @klemanowicz: Arctic front brings some snow... coastal storm still the wildcard... latest thoughts through Sun http://t.co/v01jD5lN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like I'm running in At least 2-4 tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I'd really watch the position of this boundary as it sets up shop paralleling the east coast. Looking even at this 18z NAM it appears it's honing in on a convective enhanced vortex node rather than that provided by the main impulse's jet max, for inducing cyclogenesis.. It madly deepens it immediately there after; this induces dramatic height falls to feed-back into the overall trough structure - way N of the main jet dynamics. This then encourages the whole L/W to shift remarkably NE... All that evolution could be an eastward error, and one that I think there is "some" possibility all the models are sharing in due to the immense numerical instability of the Gulf Stream. If this front above that is nearing the SE Coast hangs up ...where it does, is likely to be the kink point for the initiation of cyclogenesis. If you look at the NAM's 33 hour chart below, you can see two weak low centers situated some 300 naut miles seaward of the mid and upper mid Atlantic regions... Connecting these two with a stationary boundary, and than a weak cold front subtended beneath to the outer Bahamas is where the NAM is assessing the baroclinic axis will be just prior to the main show. It is not unreasonable to question that as being too far east considering the flow in the deep layer is already beginning to parallel the coast well prior to this 33 hour time frame. Very subtle variances in the nearer term can blow up in time to mean a different result and trust me, 30 hours is plenty of time to adjust - that happened in Dec 2005, where it really wasn't clear until the day just before what would like play out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 See ya later GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 See ya later GFS. Wide right. Dry for most...Phil gets a nice event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Wide right. Dry for most It gives the Cape snow, but flags FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This guy used to be on FOX in Hfd. Is he in BOS now? @klemanowicz: Arctic front brings some snow... coastal storm still the wildcard... latest thoughts through Sun http://t.co/v01jD5lN Yes. He's in BOS now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SJonesWX Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This guy used to be on FOX in Hfd. Is he in BOS now? @klemanowicz: Arctic front brings some snow... coastal storm still the wildcard... latest thoughts through Sun http://t.co/v01jD5lN he's been in boston for like 10-15 years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowMan Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Looks like I'm running in At least 2-4 tomorrow morning I thought it was 6-12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 I thought it was 6-12Its 3-6 total from both events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SR Airglow Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 2-4" here on the GFS, and zero on the EURO. Wonder which one I'm going to belive???(hint: EURO) -skisheep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Radar looking Great to our west. Coming together nicely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guvna Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 he's been in boston for like 10-15 years Uh...time duration is stretching it, but I personally think he's a decent Met.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Radar looking Great to our west. Coming together nicely Temps may be an issue for you at first, but will wetbulb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 It gives the Cape snow, but flags FTW. It's still oscillating across run times - which means obviously that it still needs its own consensus. 00z run and 12z run, were for all intents and purposes dead balls the same solution, then.... the 06z and now this 18z are wobbled east and misses. I still say where ever the front stalls as it near and clears the coast might be telling.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Temps may be an issue for you at first, but will wetbulb.Front coming thre SFD now. Ill start as snow and 32-33 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 This phase looks like New Orleans, LA is the place to judge whether or not the phase occurs for us. GFS is too far southeast considering how far negative the trough tilts off the coast. Storm would likely head NNE instead of NE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 15, 2013 Share Posted February 15, 2013 Front coming thre SFD now. Ill start as snow and 32-33 Someone near you to Will and maybe just west of me may weenie their way to 3-4". Might be a very narrow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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