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ORH_wxman

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Rollo Tomasi, you are right, the question becomes the nature of the phase potential, what becomes of it?  Will the northern stream shortwave phase with the shortwave over MX or will it glide on by and out to sea?  I just don't know what will happen.

 

GFS pulls it all together in the base of the trough which makes some sense to me.   The RAP...would pretty well support the GFS.

 

The NAM is garbage.   Toss it.

 

I haven't looked at how the NAM relates to the Euro...don't care either :)   We'll know soon enough, but I feel the NAM can be absolutely tossed into the shi* pile.  The top and bottom images are the GFS/RAP and are fairly similar, NAM is the odd duck in the middle...too much focus on the lead s/w getting away.  Crap.

post-3232-0-84608300-1360963381_thumb.gi

post-3232-0-00467800-1360963388_thumb.gi

post-3232-0-68923600-1360963394_thumb.gi

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Basically we got a southern stream shortwave over MX and we have a northern stream shortwave over the Dakatos diving southeastward.  The question is: will the two streams phase together to get our mega storm to come westward?  Also another point is that the GFS closes off the H5 low much sooner then any other guidance does and it will be interesting to see the 18z GFS continue its solution staying west.  If the 18z run stays west as its 12z run had, then does this mean the 00z consensus move west as well.  With the GFS having its usual SE bias in the 18z run, will this greatly increase the westward track more?

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GFs really is robust overnight

 

Borderline advisory for the interior just for the first part. I'm a bit skeptical on that, but I guess it wouldn't be a shock to see more 3" amounts than 1" amounts. Certainly within the realm of uncertainty.

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I'd really watch the position of this boundary as it sets up shop paralleling the east coast.    Looking even at this 18z NAM it appears it's honing in on a convective enhanced vortex node rather than that provided by the main impulse's jet max, for inducing cyclogenesis.. It madly deepens it immediately there after; this induces dramatic height falls to feed-back into the overall trough structure - way N of the main jet dynamics.   This then encourages the whole L/W to shift remarkably NE...  All that evolution could be an eastward error, and one that I think there is "some" possibility all the models are sharing in due to the immense numerical instability of the Gulf Stream.  

 

90fwbg.gif

 

If this front above that is nearing the SE Coast hangs up ...where it does, is likely to be the kink point for the initiation of cyclogenesis.  If you look at the NAM's 33 hour chart below, you can see two weak low centers situated some 300 naut miles seaward of the mid and upper mid Atlantic regions... Connecting these two with a stationary boundary, and than a weak cold front subtended beneath to the outer Bahamas is where the NAM is assessing the baroclinic axis will be just prior to the main show.

 

nam_namer_027_1000_500_thick.gif  

 

It is not unreasonable to question that as being too far east considering the flow in the deep layer is already beginning to parallel the coast well prior to this 33 hour time frame.  Very subtle variances in the nearer term can blow up in time to mean a different result and trust me, 30 hours is plenty of time to adjust - that happened in Dec 2005, where it really wasn't clear until the day just before what would like play out.  

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It gives the Cape snow, but flags FTW.

 

 

It's still oscillating across run times - which means obviously that it still needs its own consensus.   00z run and 12z run, were for all intents and purposes dead balls the same solution, then.... the 06z and now this 18z are wobbled east and misses.   

 

I still say where ever the front stalls as it near and clears the coast might be telling....

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