Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,588
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    LopezElliana
    Newest Member
    LopezElliana
    Joined

Feb 16-17 Threat


ORH_wxman

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 1.3k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

True tip, and it bends back to the NW at the coast of SC, you could most definitely be on to something. 

 

 

Yeah, I'll end up right but it will still not snow - watch.

 

haha.  oy vay

 

Any, it doesn't appear the 18z NAM even initialized these details at all - almost no idea there's a low center sitting on the CP or nearby down there, with a 150kt 200mb jet entrance/exit relay over head...  

 

We'll see... 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, I'll end up right but it will still not snow - watch.

 

haha.  oy vay

 

Any, it doesn't appear the 18z NAM even initialized these details at all - almost no idea there's a low center sitting on the CP or nearby down there, with a 150kt 200mb jet entrance/exit relay over head...  

 

We'll see... 

No Tip, if you're right, it'll snow its arse off up there. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SREF plume averages...kind of scary forecasting. Members either want a big 12+ snowfall or nothing in most cases.

 

BOS 8"...but no members from 2" to 10" (either C-2" 10-20)

ORH 4"...same situation (0-2.5" or 8-12")

HYA 9"...half members 0-5" and half of them 10-20"

PVC 9"...same as HYA

IJD   3"...all over the place

PSM 5"...either 0" or 12" 

PWM 5"...less spread

CON 3"...all over the place

 

Terrible forecast.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

No Tip, if you're right, it'll snow its arse off up there. 

 

 

Eh... This could verify west and still miss though.  ...Not by much, no -  

 

I think just having the NAM still wobbling the storm track this close in, as well as the last 3 cycles of the GFS bumping 30 miles closer, atones both to the complexity of this, but that folks should be prepared for surprises.   That, AND as we're seeing a low detonating along that boundary, and Satellite trends, do offer some argument for a west adjustment.

 

How much of that is entirely unsure.   The state of the art and science of weather forecasting is always improving, and eventually, "positive" busts will be a thing of the past.  Negative for that matter, too.    Not sure that is today.   

 

I guess a 2" to Orange Mass, and 6" for me here in Ayer, and 6+ on the coast would have to be a considered a positive bust. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I kind of expect the op gfs to move east a little towards gefs mean

 

I kind of hope that this comes 100 miles west upon it's closest pass, clocking everyone east of Springfield with moderate if not major event, and not just because it would be fun to ride out a winter storm.  I just love the thought of dystopian model performance.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...