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ORH_wxman

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Nam has .41 qpf BOS per FOUS including the .04 progged the first 6 hours.

 

vs. 0.01 qpf BOS on 12z Nam... I can't remember a winter when it's been this frequently so bad in < 24 hrs

 

I think your 4-8 call is a good one here. GFS keeping me on edge for higher... baroclinic zone per 850 temps is further west than progged on NAM, and we who the hell knows how the too-many-chefs plays out off the Carolinas.

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Woa woa - let's be fair. If for some miraculous convenience to those that want a big event, this thing becomes a bigger impact than currently forecast, no model is doing particularly well -

You know ... this bang-up on the NAM act really strikes me as the scape-goat phenomenon. It's just so popular to blame and admonish the model, people (not necessarily you per se) knee jerk react against it when it really isn't fair to do so.

It gives the DGEX a break from bashing

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TZ008-011-012-NYZ079-081-170445-

/O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0005.130217T0100Z-130217T1600Z/

NORTHERN NEW LONDON-SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX-SOUTHERN NEW LONDON-

NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-

336 PM EST SAT FEB 16 2013

...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO

11 AM EST SUNDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN UPTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER

ADVISORY FOR SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS

EVENING TO 11 AM EST SUNDAY.

* LOCATIONS...NEW LONDON COUNTY...EASTERN SUFFOLK COUNTY...AND

SOUTHERN MIDDLESEX COUNTY.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 5 INCHES.

* WINDS...NORTH 20 TO 30 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE MID 20S.

* VISIBILITIES...THE STRONG WINDS COULD CREATE PERIODS OF NEAR

BLIZZARD CONDITIONS REDUCING VISIBILITIES TO ONE-QUARTER MILE OR

LESS AT TIMES.

* TIMING...THE HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED FROM LATE TONIGHT INTO

SUNDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF SNOW AND SOME BLOWING SNOW WILL

MAKE TRAVELING DIFFICULT AT TIMES.

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