Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Phil nailed this Dec 04, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I see that the 18z NAM drove stronger energy into the base of the trough disturbance over SC. It is focusing more energy into this shortwave, but still overplays the eastern shortwave too much and pulls the storm east. It is further west then the last run (12z). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nam still not there though but it trended significantly What a sh"Ty model... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherMA Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Obligatory SREF probs post...looks pretty damn good in SE Mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 nam is 976 by about 37 N I saw that too, much stronger with the southern low initially, and strengthens it rapidly as the energy is stronger in the SC shortwave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 nam's 24 hour panel is mehhhhhh. look'd better thou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 BDKgHT4CcAAEl5c.jpeg ROFL!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Doubt you will need it. If so, probably not as long. Less wind, lighter snow. How long were you w/o power last week? Since 2008 we have not had outages lasting more than a few hours. I'm banking on the fact I'd never lost power prior to last weekend. 3 days, and I can't do that again I think this is going to be worse than currently modeled. Just a hunch. NAM is still having some issues with the convection to the east. If it didn't develop what's probably a spuriously strong ml low to the east it'd likely have been close to closing off by morning/more severe GFS type solution. We'll see, but 4-8+ looks very likely here with winds 50+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I remember DEC 04 like it was yesterday the 26-27th storm. 18z NAM also closes off H5 much earlier, just too far northeast to benefit us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
joey2002 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Since 2008 we have not had outages lasting more than a few hours. Lucky. Since 2011 here: 4 days out from Irene, 8 days out from the October Nor'easter, 3 days out from Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Gonna be a nice period midnight to noon particularly 4-10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nam still not there though but it trended significantly What a sh"Ty model... Suc*s and I think all the meso's are going down in flames on this one. I wouldn't be surprised if the GFS stayed close tot he course/GEFS from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Weenies better get their thermos out of the sun. Nobody is close to that. We're socked in clouds. And it would be in the shade if there was sun. IDK, maybe it's more like 39F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 NAM backs .5" contour into SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 We're socked in clouds. And it would be in the shade if there was sun. IDK, maybe it's more like 39F You still get solar insolation. Even LWM which has dim sun is 39. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Hi-Res Nam looks good for SNE http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&cycle=18ℑ=nam-hires%2F18%2Fnam-hires_namer_015_sim_reflectivity.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 NAM looks way better than before. What a crappy model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 You still get solar insolation. Even LWM which has dim sun is 39. BDL is only 38 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Snowing and starting to stick here in mashpee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
#NoPoles Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 39 here...but it did hit 50 yesterday...so it has "cooled" off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 nothing here yet, just heavy airmass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nam went from looking at it inside 24 hrs to inside 12 and it still not there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Seems NAM is bad outside 12 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 radar bloosoming a bit from just east of acy to east central longisland to Se ct .....and then a cple hours prob up to boston and either a tad west or east of this line .....??? some one looks to get decent qpf later this afternoon into evening....esp SE areas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TUweathermanDD Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Check this out guys, could be beneficial for your crowd. http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=ocpn7 Buoy just off Cape Fear I believe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Seems NAM is bad outside 12 hours. Make that 3 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nam has .41 qpf BOS per FOUS including the .04 progged the first 6 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Wind could be quite impressive tomorrow on the backside of the storm when the sun comes out. GFS has 60 knots at the top of the BL at BDL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Seems NAM is bad outside 12 hours. Woa woa - let's be fair. If for some miraculous convenience to those that want a big event, this thing becomes a bigger impact than currently forecast, no model is doing particularly well - You know ... this bang-up on the NAM act really strikes me as the scape-goat phenomenon. It's just so popular to blame and admonish the model, people (not necessarily you per se) knee jerk react against it when it really isn't fair to do so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MaineJayhawk Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What is the over/under for how many times Rollo mentions the possibility of buying a generator? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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