CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 You didn't even have Internet last nite, so you're not quite up to par yet. I expect 2-4 here Looked at everything when I got back from NH. Regardless... the Euro was a sizable jump east for QPF in Connecticut. Most signs point toward whiff here. Maybe 1-2" SE CT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Wow at this run. Burgeoning -NAO and it manages to immediately turn around and blast a quasi -warm front through NYC by just hour 72. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 thanks! love that euro gets deform into bos i may stay in salem ma tonite instead of wakefield (10 miles west) lol I'm just assuming based on features, I could be wrong. If it ticks east, then it's like 1-3. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Well, We have weds to look forward to Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'd estimate your 48hr QPF at 54hr to be around 0.20". Not worth nitpicking though...it's a glancing hit for you.Right but when Ryan is talking flurries and Euro gives plowable it has to be clarified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The Cape (Harwich, MA) is over climo for this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Right but when Ryan is talking flurries and Euro gives plowable it has to be clarified Euro has about 0.05" of QPF between 12z and 00z. So if you include that... there's the discrepancy. I was talking about the real "storm" which is around 12z tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 6z burlington meso(BTV WRF) 12km ....blasts messenger and phil with like 1.3 to 1.7 qpf and haverhill,ma to westerly (on ssw/nne) line with .5+ tonite 1.0 qpf scituate to ktan se Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm just assuming based on features, I could be wrong. If it ticks east, then it's like 1-3. understood thx scott also is this a set up where earlier deepening could push amounts a bit further NW, and later SE. or not that ez. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro has about 0.05" of QPF between 12z and 00z. So if you include that... there's the discrepancy. I was talking about the real "storm" which is around 12z tomorrow. No big deal. I'm expecting and should get a couple inches and hopefully that can get back to you and even west and good luck to folks east like Scoots and Jerry and others in Bos Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 understood thx scott also is this a set up where earlier deepening could push amounts a bit further NW, and later SE. or not that ez. Earlier deepening is always good. Everything matures including conveyor belts to deliver moisture. This will have tricks I'm sure. I could see a very sharp cutoff from west to east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 HIRES NMM and ARW compromise would give us 5-7" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Shortwave in question is rounding the base of the trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Earlier deepening is always good. Everything matures including conveyor belts to deliver moisture. This will have tricks I'm sure. I could see a very sharp cutoff from west to east. Is this one if those deals where you see one of those un modeled bands way Nw or not one of those deals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Based on everything I've seen and read here including current wv loop, my forecast is 6-12+ all of CC/islands, 6-10 SE ma up to maybe Weymouth, 4-8 BOS/pvd/128 belt, 3-6 to 495, 2-4 BDL/hvn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I would say convective feedback or something is impacting the short range HIRES models, because they pick up the eastern convection as a source for cyclogenesis and sparks the low to go more towards the east. It will be interesting to see where the convection develops, is it east or is it west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 good point. also, the front that went through had very little push to it and that n/s weenie band has been extremely slow to move on. a track closer to the coast is not off the table imo and definitely bears watching. Current IR displays a beaut of a baroclinic leaf and looping this image shows those cloud tops over VA are cooling/expanding ...yet, we miss? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is this one if those deals where you see one of those un modeled bands way Nw or not one of those deals? Well this time around way NW might be BOS to PVD. However, if somehow this goes ape****, then it could even get back to you...the GFS did tickle you with that. But, the euro barely gets it to me..and that is highly questionable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Even the far eastern US HIRES model is giving us some snow the ARW. FUrther east then the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The difference between the Euro in GFS in surface centers is a mere 25 miles at hour 24, razor thin margins. Mostly a now cast situation for the CC Bos area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I just don't like how the hi res models are so far east. Haven't been on the GFS train and won't get on...but I admit this has huge bust potential. I'm more concerned about the mid level banding instead of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The difference between the Euro in GFS in surface centers is a mere 25 miles at hour 24, razor thin margins. Mostly a now cast situation for the CC Bos area. Agreed. It's a really tough forecast for immediate coast in E Mass. I do agree with Scott that it's probably going to be a very tight gradient. The Euro pulling the plug on some of the better QPF here in CT at 12z (compared to the overnight 00z run) was an indication of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Agreed. It's a really tough forecast for immediate coast in E Mass. I do agree with Scott that it's probably going to be a very tight gradient. The Euro pulling the plug on some of the better QPF here in CT at 12z (compared to the overnight 00z run) was an indication of that. Nice weenie snow right now. boy that is close to an all out Cape Cod Cottage Calamity right there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PWMan Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Well, We have weds to look forward to That's not looking like much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
N. OF PIKE Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 based on satelite and radar trends and with new guidance. anyone buying tickets for boston .....Including in twitter land) any have any info on any mets that are going out on a limb and seeing something that says...."boom this is coming" and yes weenie me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I still have no idea why Pickles said I cancelled winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 That's not looking like much. It looked better on the 12z Euro, Better then this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Raleigh NC coming in with 3-5 inches today. Pretty far west. Hmmm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 6z burlington meso(BTV WRF) 12km ....blasts messenger and phil with like 1.3 to 1.7 qpf and haverhill,ma to westerly (on ssw/nne) line with .5+ tonite 1.0 qpf scituate to ktan se Dude, I hope it happens. I was down in Rollo and Bob's terriorty last weekend and it look amazing with 12"+ OTG. So picturesque...especially in Plymouth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ctsnowstorm628 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It looked better on the 12z Euro Talk to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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