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Feb 16-17 Threat


ORH_wxman

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I'm currently thinking if the ECMWF ticks west I will issue a watch for the coastal plain (and explain uncertainty) and have subsequent shifts upgrade or downgrade as we see the whites of it's eyes. Don't like doing that most of the time, but I think it would be the prudent thing to do in this case. If the EC goes east, then conservative is likely the way to go.

Leave it for the next shift, lol sounds like places I used to work. good luck hope you get buried, i will be in your hood very soon

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Is the euro minutes away from pulling the rig out onthe blizzard? What do you think?

 

I tend to think not.   It's north or south.  GFS/Euro key on the northern s/w moving into western Carolina now.  The others let the bottom s/w shoot out and around and have almost a double barrel low structure in 12 hours that robs us of a major event.  The southern s/w is definitely more impressive right now.

 

The thing is when you look at the derivative products from the NAM etc, they're al ridiculous with the feedback out east from the firing convection.  Is that indicative of the base model maybe doing the same?  It's just so hard to believe the Canadians are wrong too unless they are having an issue because of the upgrade.

 

4-8" if I had to bet here pre-Euro.  Compromise between the 0z Euro last night and the 12z GEFS maybe 70% last nights Euro, 30% GEFS.  Privately I don't think there's anything wrong with the west solutions.

 

I'll be more surprised if the Euro isn't more severe this run than I'll be if it backs off. 

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Is the euro minutes away from pulling the rig out onthe blizzard? What do you think?

I think the Euro will tick east and although everyone will be model watching up to 1am tonight this is going to be pretty much a non event for everyone except the outer Cape.  I maybe eating my words in 20 minutes if the Euro comes in west!

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oh, yeah. we have gotten so much better at making verifiable forecasts than we did 10 or twenty years ago.not! today is the poster child for what happens far too frequently.here we are, less than a day away from the event and can point to models showing whiffs, some impact or major impact and we wind up essentially playing the model "video game" as each run comes out. each model comes with its own set of physics assumptions and at least in the old days(only 3 models) we understood those assumptions and first tried to get a grasp on the underlying atmosphere type before we even began to look at the models. now, with so many models on offer, do the majority of us even understand thoroughly the differing model assumptions that need to be known if we want to fit the model to the atmospheric conditions? my guess is no. we have come a long way in many areas in meteorology due to amazing advances in technology, but forecasting with strong confidence any time the atmosphere becomes dynamic in nature is not among them.

 

my best guess on this one....a strong event for eastern areas(all of the cape and inside a n/s line running 50-75 miles inland from the coast to the nh border). 

This setup is so delicate because a few miles could be the diffence of heavy snow on flounder vs major impact on a large population area.

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The other thing is that the GFS has ticked west since what..18z or 00z? Interesting.

That's what complicates the whole thing.  It's not like the GFS just jumped shark and has a blizzard now.  It's made gradual steps into a more amplified solution.  The Euro made the "step" last night but we'll see shortly if that is true.

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I can't help but think the GFS it too amped...but I respect big ocean storms with tons of energy igniting cyclogenesis. Might be a version slightly better than 00z?

 

Just going through the individual GFS ensemble members... so many of them are super amped... like the op run. 

 

Very odd to see GFS/GEFS going nuts and SREF/NAM saying meh.

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Hey guys,  Just a request before the Euro comes out.  Could someone who gets Euro QPF post for the cities of ALL of New England including us up in C/NNE.  Don't want to ask how much in my backyard questions but posting city QPF is so helpfull in extrapolating!!!

 

Thanks   Gene

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Just going through the individual GFS ensemble members... so many of them are super amped... like the op run. 

 

Very odd to see GFS/GEFS going nuts and SREF/NAM saying meh.

 

 

 

I was just musing over that, too.  Interesting.   So clear and decisive and weighty are those differences that one wouldn't think that it's mere chaos, but perhaps something physical in nature regarding how the disparate schemes are handling things.  I know that the NAM uses a different convective paramterization than the operational GFS, but I am not sure if that is true for all GFS ensembles, and all SREF members evenly.   But again ... it may not be the convection that's the issue - but having that many members of each in opposition really seems more systemic than chancy.

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