Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm currently thinking if the ECMWF ticks west I will issue a watch for the coastal plain (and explain uncertainty) and have subsequent shifts upgrade or downgrade as we see the whites of it's eyes. Don't like doing that most of the time, but I think it would be the prudent thing to do in this case. If the EC goes east, then conservative is likely the way to go. Leave it for the next shift, lol sounds like places I used to work. good luck hope you get buried, i will be in your hood very soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Satellite always does. I hate that, you last look and see this exploding cloud shield and there's "no way that's missing us". And you go to bed and summarily wake up with the sun shining and wonder just how in the hell - Lol...so true! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I still would not mind a 20 or 30 mile shift on the GFS.. not likely but nice to think about congrats everyone to the east pending the EURO The other thing is that the GFS has ticked west since what..18z or 00z? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is the euro minutes away from pulling the rug out on the blizzard? What do you think? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is the euro minutes away from pulling the rig out onthe blizzard? What do you think? What blizzard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is the euro minutes away from pulling the rig out onthe blizzard? What do you think? I think it'll come in better than 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is the euro minutes away from pulling the rig out onthe blizzard? What do you think? I can't help but think the GFS it too amped...but I respect big ocean storms with tons of energy igniting cyclogenesis. Might be a version slightly better than 00z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is the euro minutes away from pulling the rig out onthe blizzard? What do you think? And still it might be wrong by 30 miles and you get brutalized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 And still it might be wrong by 30 miles and you get brutalized. That has been on the table all along Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is the euro minutes away from pulling the rig out onthe blizzard? What do you think? I tend to think not. It's north or south. GFS/Euro key on the northern s/w moving into western Carolina now. The others let the bottom s/w shoot out and around and have almost a double barrel low structure in 12 hours that robs us of a major event. The southern s/w is definitely more impressive right now. The thing is when you look at the derivative products from the NAM etc, they're al ridiculous with the feedback out east from the firing convection. Is that indicative of the base model maybe doing the same? It's just so hard to believe the Canadians are wrong too unless they are having an issue because of the upgrade. 4-8" if I had to bet here pre-Euro. Compromise between the 0z Euro last night and the 12z GEFS maybe 70% last nights Euro, 30% GEFS. Privately I don't think there's anything wrong with the west solutions. I'll be more surprised if the Euro isn't more severe this run than I'll be if it backs off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is the euro minutes away from pulling the rig out onthe blizzard? What do you think? I think the Euro will tick east and although everyone will be model watching up to 1am tonight this is going to be pretty much a non event for everyone except the outer Cape. I maybe eating my words in 20 minutes if the Euro comes in west! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
educate Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 oh, yeah. we have gotten so much better at making verifiable forecasts than we did 10 or twenty years ago.not! today is the poster child for what happens far too frequently.here we are, less than a day away from the event and can point to models showing whiffs, some impact or major impact and we wind up essentially playing the model "video game" as each run comes out. each model comes with its own set of physics assumptions and at least in the old days(only 3 models) we understood those assumptions and first tried to get a grasp on the underlying atmosphere type before we even began to look at the models. now, with so many models on offer, do the majority of us even understand thoroughly the differing model assumptions that need to be known if we want to fit the model to the atmospheric conditions? my guess is no. we have come a long way in many areas in meteorology due to amazing advances in technology, but forecasting with strong confidence any time the atmosphere becomes dynamic in nature is not among them. my best guess on this one....a strong event for eastern areas(all of the cape and inside a n/s line running 50-75 miles inland from the coast to the nh border). This setup is so delicate because a few miles could be the diffence of heavy snow on flounder vs major impact on a large population area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The other thing is that the GFS has ticked west since what..18z or 00z? Interesting. That's what complicates the whole thing. It's not like the GFS just jumped shark and has a blizzard now. It's made gradual steps into a more amplified solution. The Euro made the "step" last night but we'll see shortly if that is true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I can't help but think the GFS it too amped...but I respect big ocean storms with tons of energy igniting cyclogenesis. Might be a version slightly better than 00z? Just going through the individual GFS ensemble members... so many of them are super amped... like the op run. Very odd to see GFS/GEFS going nuts and SREF/NAM saying meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 palpable excitement in here out shines the hypocrisy of the GFS' as being very unreliable in this pattern - just the perfect reason for it to be the most right! just our luck Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Hey guys, Just a request before the Euro comes out. Could someone who gets Euro QPF post for the cities of ALL of New England including us up in C/NNE. Don't want to ask how much in my backyard questions but posting city QPF is so helpfull in extrapolating!!! Thanks Gene Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ineedsnow Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 EURO time! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro is running...out to 6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Just going through the individual GFS ensemble members... so many of them are super amped... like the op run. Very odd to see GFS/GEFS going nuts and SREF/NAM saying meh. I was just musing over that, too. Interesting. So clear and decisive and weighty are those differences that one wouldn't think that it's mere chaos, but perhaps something physical in nature regarding how the disparate schemes are handling things. I know that the NAM uses a different convective paramterization than the operational GFS, but I am not sure if that is true for all GFS ensembles, and all SREF members evenly. But again ... it may not be the convection that's the issue - but having that many members of each in opposition really seems more systemic than chancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Just going through the individual GFS ensemble members... so many of them are super amped... like the op run. Very odd to see GFS/GEFS going nuts and SREF/NAM saying meh. Really only one meh member in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hazey Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Can see the track differences more clearly here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Can see the track differences more clearly herepres_short.gif Looking at that, the GFS track is kind of odd, almost straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 And still it might be wrong by 30 miles and you get brutalized. Could be wrong by 30 miles the other way too, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro looks a tick east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro looks a tick east. a tick east of 0z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro looks about the same at 24 hours...maybe a tick east of 00z actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Actually looks very similar to 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dendrite Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro looks a tick east. Yeah...a little east. Still a decent little event for SE MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro looks a tick east. Yeah nothing like gfs. .5 to Phil? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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