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ORH_wxman

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The GEFS mean has clustered pretty close to the operational all along.  So it doesn't tell us too much.  If the GFS ends up too far west, whatever polluted the model will have corrupted the entire ensemble suite. 

 

But it sure looks sweet.  Legitimate blizzard conditions possible in SE MA if the GFS is right.

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I think you are inside of the time frame when they offer much help,  They's spread the precip out because of their lower resolution.  The Srefs do not look as good as the GEFS and they have better resolution than the GEFS.   The Euro ens have resolution similar to that of the GFS so it would be interesting to see what the majority of them forecast and to know how much spread there was. 

 

Though it is interesting seeing lower resolution ensember members on the more "amped up" side of the guidance. Normally it's the opposite. 

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Though it is interesting seeing lower resolution ensember members on the more "amped up" side of the guidance. Normally it's the opposite. 

 

Ryan this is probably why.  The "high" resolution models are almost for sure choking on the convection that's going to fire.  I have a hard time buying this, it pops up on many of these high res models.  Look way east, off the scale vorticity out of the blue.  And of course that taints the ability of this model to develop a consolidated low.

post-3232-0-73352900-1361034449_thumb.gi

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Gefs mean looks good

I think you are inside of the time frame when they offer don't much help, They spread the precip out because of their lower resolution. The Srefs do not look as good as the GEFS and they have better resolution than the GEFS. The Euro ens have resolution similar to that of the GFS so it would be interesting to see what the majority of them forecast and to know how much spread there was.

The only thing is sometimes i think in this kind of set up they will lean to the right of the op

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Ryan this is probably why.  The "high" resolution models are almost for sure choking on the convection that's going to fire.  I have a hard time buying this, it pops up on many of these high res models.  Look way east, off the scale vorticity out of the blue.  And of course that taints the ability of this model to develop a consolidated low.

 

No doubt. The GFS actually develops quite a bit of convection NW of the mid level low track... it almost looks like some convective feedback as well. The truth I'm sure lies somewhere in the middle but it is a very interesting UA pattern. Lots of synoptic scale lift. 

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Wouldn't it be awesome if this was the storm that did it?    Yeah, winter weather advisories, and warnings on the Cape, and blizzard watch for the D.E.M. s  But it winds up bomb style and just ferociously lashes everyone east of a RUT-HFD line with 80 mph gusts and an S+++ severe thunderstorm for nearly 6 consecutive hours.  

 

ha ha

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No doubt. The GFS actually develops quite a bit of convection NW of the mid level low track... it almost looks like some convective feedback as well. The truth I'm sure lies somewhere in the middle but it is a very interesting UA pattern. Lots of synoptic scale lift. 

 

Yep that's the rub.  It could go either way, one model camp is falling victim to feedback.  It's the 12-15 hour range that everything happens.  The GFS lets the eastern vortmax fall apart where the high res stuff has it go ballistic.  The GFS instead puts all the emphasis on the western S/W emerging off the Carolinas later today.  That's the difference, simply put between the Euro/GFS and others.  The mesos all absolutely crush the eastern s/w that develops out of seemingly thin area, but is actually tied to the s/w evident in the northern GOM moving ENE

 

The extent to which the super res models develop that stuff, and how fast they do it to the east is really, really suspicious.  On the same token the GFS may also be having it's issues which is why a compromise between the 12z GEFs and 0z Euro is warranted.  4-8 on the Cape type of deal, pending 1 hour from now.

 

if the Euro stays aggressive, I'd toss every piece of other guidance because I'll take my chances with the Euro/GFS vs an unproven (we've only seen it for 3 days as the general public GGEM/RGEM) etc.

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30-50 miles is going to have some huge implications one way or the other, You have a tough task in front of you

I'm currently thinking if the ECMWF ticks west I will issue a watch for the coastal plain (and explain uncertainty) and have subsequent shifts upgrade or downgrade as we see the whites of it's eyes. Don't like doing that most of the time, but I think it would be the prudent thing to do in this case. If the EC goes east, then conservative is likely the way to go.

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I'm currently thinking if the ECMWF ticks west I will issue a watch for the coastal plain (and explain uncertainty) and have subsequent shifts upgrade or downgrade as we see the whites of it's eyes. Don't like doing that most of the time, but I think it would be the prudent thing to do in this case. If the EC goes east, then conservative is likely the way to go.

 

 

18,20,23 and 24?

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