Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I guess we can wait an hour until the euro comes in. That's what I'm doing. If it comes in bad I'm out to get a generator. Snowign here already, temp dropping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The GEFS mean has clustered pretty close to the operational all along. So it doesn't tell us too much. If the GFS ends up too far west, whatever polluted the model will have corrupted the entire ensemble suite. But it sure looks sweet. Legitimate blizzard conditions possible in SE MA if the GFS is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I think you are inside of the time frame when they offer much help, They's spread the precip out because of their lower resolution. The Srefs do not look as good as the GEFS and they have better resolution than the GEFS. The Euro ens have resolution similar to that of the GFS so it would be interesting to see what the majority of them forecast and to know how much spread there was. Though it is interesting seeing lower resolution ensember members on the more "amped up" side of the guidance. Normally it's the opposite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Even being on the outside of the goods, this is great and Yea I would have a generator. Damaged temporary grids are highly susceptible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Though it is interesting seeing lower resolution ensember members on the more "amped up" side of the guidance. Normally it's the opposite. That's what bothers me. But even the Ukie and GGEM are meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Though it is interesting seeing lower resolution ensember members on the more "amped up" side of the guidance. Normally it's the opposite. Ryan this is probably why. The "high" resolution models are almost for sure choking on the convection that's going to fire. I have a hard time buying this, it pops up on many of these high res models. Look way east, off the scale vorticity out of the blue. And of course that taints the ability of this model to develop a consolidated low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Gefs mean looks good I think you are inside of the time frame when they offer don't much help, They spread the precip out because of their lower resolution. The Srefs do not look as good as the GEFS and they have better resolution than the GEFS. The Euro ens have resolution similar to that of the GFS so it would be interesting to see what the majority of them forecast and to know how much spread there was. The only thing is sometimes i think in this kind of set up they will lean to the right of the op Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Well the GFS gets6-10 to the river. Doubt it's right but hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 QPF aside, if those mid levels are correct on the GFS, GEFS...and even the euro op...it could be quite interesting in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Well the GFS gets6-10 to the river. Doubt it's right but hope 1-2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I was greatly surprised by the 00z EURO's track, gives me confidence that the GFS is on to something, though the 12z run would give me even greater confidence if it's in agreement with the 12z GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 1-2Final call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 NWS says 6-8" for Outer Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 This setup is so delicate because a few miles could be the diffence of heavy snow on flounder vs major impact on a large population area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
USCAPEWEATHERAF Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS was epic on its 12z run for CC and Islands Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 1-2Final call? For ktol...yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFreak Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 This setup is so delicate because a few miles could be the diffence of heavy snow on flounder vs major impact on a large population area. Flounders just chucked you a weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Waiting for 12z euro so I can issue some sort of "it might be interesting tomorrow" product. LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 For ktol...yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Waiting for 12z euro so I can issue some sort of "it might be interesting tomorrow" product. LOL. Are you on short term? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ryan this is probably why. The "high" resolution models are almost for sure choking on the convection that's going to fire. I have a hard time buying this, it pops up on many of these high res models. Look way east, off the scale vorticity out of the blue. And of course that taints the ability of this model to develop a consolidated low. No doubt. The GFS actually develops quite a bit of convection NW of the mid level low track... it almost looks like some convective feedback as well. The truth I'm sure lies somewhere in the middle but it is a very interesting UA pattern. Lots of synoptic scale lift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Wouldn't it be awesome if this was the storm that did it? Yeah, winter weather advisories, and warnings on the Cape, and blizzard watch for the D.E.M. s But it winds up bomb style and just ferociously lashes everyone east of a RUT-HFD line with 80 mph gusts and an S+++ severe thunderstorm for nearly 6 consecutive hours. ha ha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Are you on short term? Yes. I usually relish the chance but today I dunno. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yes. I usually relish the chance but today I dunno. 30-50 miles is going to have some huge implications one way or the other, You have a tough task in front of you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Satellite looks tasty . We'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 No doubt. The GFS actually develops quite a bit of convection NW of the mid level low track... it almost looks like some convective feedback as well. The truth I'm sure lies somewhere in the middle but it is a very interesting UA pattern. Lots of synoptic scale lift. Yep that's the rub. It could go either way, one model camp is falling victim to feedback. It's the 12-15 hour range that everything happens. The GFS lets the eastern vortmax fall apart where the high res stuff has it go ballistic. The GFS instead puts all the emphasis on the western S/W emerging off the Carolinas later today. That's the difference, simply put between the Euro/GFS and others. The mesos all absolutely crush the eastern s/w that develops out of seemingly thin area, but is actually tied to the s/w evident in the northern GOM moving ENE The extent to which the super res models develop that stuff, and how fast they do it to the east is really, really suspicious. On the same token the GFS may also be having it's issues which is why a compromise between the 12z GEFs and 0z Euro is warranted. 4-8 on the Cape type of deal, pending 1 hour from now. if the Euro stays aggressive, I'd toss every piece of other guidance because I'll take my chances with the Euro/GFS vs an unproven (we've only seen it for 3 days as the general public GGEM/RGEM) etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 30-50 miles is going to have some huge implications one way or the other, You have a tough task in front of you I'm currently thinking if the ECMWF ticks west I will issue a watch for the coastal plain (and explain uncertainty) and have subsequent shifts upgrade or downgrade as we see the whites of it's eyes. Don't like doing that most of the time, but I think it would be the prudent thing to do in this case. If the EC goes east, then conservative is likely the way to go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Satellite looks tasty . We'll see. Satellite always does. I hate that, you last look and see this exploding cloud shield and there's "no way that's missing us". And you go to bed and summarily wake up with the sun shining and wonder just how in the hell - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm currently thinking if the ECMWF ticks west I will issue a watch for the coastal plain (and explain uncertainty) and have subsequent shifts upgrade or downgrade as we see the whites of it's eyes. Don't like doing that most of the time, but I think it would be the prudent thing to do in this case. If the EC goes east, then conservative is likely the way to go. 18,20,23 and 24? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The other thing is that the GFS has ticked west since what..18z or 00z? Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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