Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I really have no idea what to think pending the 12z Euro lolthink snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 No, but it had a good deformation area over ern areas. The similarities were being based off the 0z run of both Euro/GFS models, Not the GFS 12z today to last nights Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 think snow Would be nice to get a sneaky snowstorm. Odds favor 0" here in HFD but I think this storm has plenty of sneaky potential from you points east... especially Scooter/Phil. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The similarities were being based off the 0z run of both Euro/GFS models, Not the GFS 12z today to last nights Euro Oh I know..just saying what it showed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I don't think it really was Jerry. The Euro didn't give a blizzard all the way to ORH It was similar. No one expects the gfs verbatim output but its a flag. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Would be nice to get a sneaky snowstorm. Odds favor 0" here in HFD but I think this storm has plenty of sneaky potential from you points east... especially Scooter/Phil. Well no matter what you'll see 1-3..Just a question if it backs in closer Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Snowing much harder now. All we need is a wind shift/temp drop and we do well regardless from this everlasting medium band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 So now we have ukmet/nam/cmc all products vs euro/gfs pending euro update. This just in.........navgem a hit for eastern areas. By hit, if you mean ~0.5", than you'd be correct. Looked similar to most other guidance outside of the 12z Op GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 All we need is a wind shift/temp drop and we do well regardless from this everlasting medium band. Winds are ok. We need another 2 colder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The similarities were being based off the 0z run of both Euro/GFS models, Not the GFS 12z today to last nights Euro GFS was in the same spot as the 0z Euro at 24 hours. It's just more organized. It's either a convective feedback issue it's having, or it's an issue all the other high res models are having for one reason or another. But it was still similar to the 0z Euro,same timing and position, just stronger aloft...both s/ws phase on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Oh I know..just saying what it showed. But just based on that if the Euro continues with that scenario, Then we should see it make a few ticks NW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 12z GEFS mean is pretty nice for eastern SNE http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfsensemble/12zgfsensemblep24036.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 By hit, if you mean ~0.5", than you'd be correct. Looked similar to most other guidance outside of the 12z Op GFS. 0.5 is a good hit to me. Gfs shows what it can do if everything goes exactly right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I really have no idea what to think pending the 12z Euro lol This will be the biggest run of the Euro since...last week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Arnold214 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GGEM wants nothing to do with this. WTF. I'm still not buying the GFS. I'm pretty much in a bind here too, lol. all the ec needs to do is come west like 50 miles and snow amounts are similar the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GEFS is still a boom. I'd go with a GEFS 0z Euro compromise as of this moment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GEFS were similar to the op. Good grief..what a weird event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm pretty much in a bind here too, lol. all the ec needs to do is come west like 50 miles and snow amounts are similar the gfs. I guess we can wait an hour until the euro comes in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve04074 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Only if the Euro agrees. Cantore trashed the American models on air yesterday, remember? Saying "Cantore trashed the American models" is inaccurate. Cantore, along with a number of other respected pros, is now discussing Cliff Mass's blog post, here: http://cliffmass.blogspot.com/2013/02/the-us-weather-prediction-computer-gap.html?spref=tw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I'm pretty much in a bind here too, lol. all the ec needs to do is come west like 50 miles and snow amounts are similar the gfs. 2" this am here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Gefs mean looks good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Well no matter what you'll see 1-3..Just a question if it backs in closer Really? I'd say odds of a trace are about as good as 1-3 for HFD lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Wow on Phils winds just wow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterLand Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 It is a holiday weekend, so this should lessen the impact of a busted forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecir.html I don't usually like going with the outliers. But I'm starting to like the GFS. Satellite looks good. I'd go with a 30/70 12z GFS/0z Euro combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GEFS were similar to the op. Good grief..what a weird event. Not quite as juiced but still amped up comparatively. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GEFS were similar to the op. Good grief..what a weird event. I wasn't surprised. Every shift the GFS made west or east before, the GEFS followed. If the Euro follows, then it's a big deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Gefs mean looks good I think you are inside of the time frame when they offer don't much help, They spread the precip out because of their lower resolution. The Srefs do not look as good as the GEFS and they have better resolution than the GEFS. The Euro ens have resolution similar to that of the GFS so it would be interesting to see what the majority of them forecast and to know how much spread there was. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I find it disturbing that I need to hope the GFS is right, it makes me feel sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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