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ORH_wxman

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Scott GFS is out to 15 hours.  The problem is the dual short waves.  Can see one and one off/on the Carolinas.  It's either royally hosing the models or is the reason some are too far west. I hate this forecast for most of you because it's either going to be a couple of inches or a near blizzard.

 

If the GFS didn't have the support largely of the Euro at this point I'd say it was feedback.  It's just so hard to believe the RGEM/NAM can be this bad this close.

Dare I say it looks a hair better than 06z?  :yikes:

Thru 18h it has a closed 700mb circulation just off NJ coast.

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Scott GFS is out to 15 hours.  The problem is the dual short waves.  Can see one and one off/on the Carolinas.  It's either royally hosing the models or is the reason some are too far west. I hate this forecast for most of you because it's either going to be a couple of inches or a near blizzard.

 

If the GFS didn't have the support largely of the Euro at this point I'd say it was feedback.  It's just so hard to believe the RGEM/NAM can be this bad this close.

Rollo, if you take a look at the NAM trends. You will see that it has been busting badly and has ticked west since 06z. I've seen this before, you should go with the GFS.

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Umm...wow.

 

We both saw the same things.  It's weaker in the first 6-12 hours, but it doesn't matter as it's faster.

 

It's either royally fuc*ed because of feedback, or it's not falling victim to the feedback issues.

 

I need to have green tea more often, less caffeine.  I've been excited about this for 18 hours and always freak out pre-models.

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We both saw the same things.  It's weaker in the first 6-12 hours, but it doesn't matter as it's faster.

 

It's either royally fuc*ed because of feedback, or it's not falling victim to the feedback issues.

 

I need to have green tea more often, less caffeine.  I've been excited about this for 18 hours and always freak out pre-models.

 

It closes off H5 quicker which means better WAA and ATL inflow.

 

You and Phil have had good thoughts with this. Hopefully the rest of guidance falls into place...if it does...then I was too poo poo. We'll see.

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Please be right.

 

It's coming.  If we're wrong we're wrong.  Euro/GFS aren't going to be denied at this range and the thumb rule of things ending up a little NW inside of 24 should happen here too.  It has to be feedback, I just cannot believe the RGEM/NAM are this bad in this close. Stunning.

 

Going to buy a generator I'm so confident of potential nightmare down here again.

 

This is a full blown blizzard.  Damaging winds, heavy snows.  Yikes.

post-3232-0-54860700-1361029136_thumb.gi

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Please be right.

It's coming. If we're wrong we're wrong. Euro/GFS aren't going to be denied at this range and the thumb rule of things ending up a little NW inside of 24 should happen here too. It has to be feedback, I just cannot believe the RGEM/NAM are this bad in this close. Stunning.

Going to buy a generator I'm so confident of potential nightmare down here again.

This is a full blown blizzard. Damaging winds, heavy snows. Yikes.

Congrats?
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Why are the globals so bullish and the mesos not? This bothers me.

 

Such a b**ch to decipher.  We have seen this before where there are 2 camps unwilling to budge.  Still need to see what the GGEM/Ukie/Euro show before jumping all in.  Stay the middle of the road route.  Man the GFS is an all out snow fest.

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