CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 You would think it would be a bomb in something like this. Hopefully the GFS continues west, but afraid it may go east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The 9z ARW and NMM are both nice hits for SE MA CC. Both 0.5"+. Lets hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 00z euro mid-levels look much better than 12z from yesterday. Night and day really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Ride the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 00z euro mid-levels look much better than 12z from yesterday. Night and day really. This has the look of a wall of convection backing NW towards the Cape, but I wonder how far it will go NW? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I hate that the NAM misses. Agree...usually by now it has caught onto the correct solution...and if it has, this isn't much outside of the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 This has the look of a wall of convection backing NW towards the Cape, but I wonder how far it will go NW? Probably a sharp cutoff too--you either get 3 inches or zilch.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Agree...usually by now it has caught onto the correct solution...and if it has, this isn't much outside of the Cape. Eh, the NAM blows so I;m not too worried...just kind of weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The nam has been terrible handling this so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 12z RGGEM will be out shortly to either give some hope or dash dreams Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 new srefs look like they almost have .5" nearing BOS...they are >.75" out on the Outer Cape now Another run or two and the NAM should come around It's better this run for sure. Still an awful model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 00z euro mid-levels look much better than 12z from yesterday. Night and day really. This has the look of a wall of convection backing NW towards the Cape, but I wonder how far it will go NW? I have a feeling it creeps into BOS for a time. West of it may see virtually nothing so hopefully it can get back to your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I have a feeling it creeps into BOS for a time. West of it may see virtually nothing so hopefully it can get back to your area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 SREF plumes looks nice over SE MA, CC. 09z means BOS - 5.72" OWD - 5.69" SFZ - 5.34" PVD - 5.63" EWB - 6.66" PYM - 6.90" HYA - 7.48" PVC - 7.39" MVY - 6.61" ACK - 7.44" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Canadian regional looks west at first, but has dual low centers mucking it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Canadian regional looks west at first, but has dual low centers mucking it up. Looks ok Over towards you and the cape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I have a feeling it creeps into BOS for a time. West of it may see virtually nothing so hopefully it can get back to your area Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr Torchey Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 4km nam came west some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Looks ok Over towards you and the cape Yeah, we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yeah, we'll see. How much you think we'll see back this way tonight maybe 1-3 or 2-4? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Sorry. Going to be an extreme cutoff with this one W of i-395, and I'm dead serious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 How much you think we'll see back this way tonight maybe 1-3 or 2-4? Could literally be nothing or 4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Part of me wants to lean on the lower end of amounts here while I could see the cape getting whacked. I just don't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Could literally be nothing or 4".Gun to knee you'd go 1-2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Canadian regional looks west at first, but has dual low centers mucking it up. As much as I want to say all out near blizzard, I don't know if anything supports that in terms of what we are seeing this morning in observation or shorter range stuff like the RAP. It's also out of the RAP range but It just doesn't look terribly interesting even at 6-12 hours as it's unable to really get organized aloft. EDIT: This could also just be the lull that is pretty well forecast. Not much is really supposed to go on for another 6+ hours down the coast. GFS caves some at 12z or does it get even worse? I'd think it backs off a little from 6z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 As much as I want to say all out near blizzard, I don't know if anything supports that in terms of what we are seeing this morning in observation or shorter range stuff like the RAP. It's also out of the RAP range but It just doesn't look terribly interesting even at 6-12 hours as it's unable to really get organized aloft. EDIT: This could also just be the lull that is pretty well forecast. Not much is really supposed to go on for another 6+ hours down the coast. GFS caves some at 12z or does it get even worse? I'd think it backs off a little from 6z. I think it backs off. JMHO. Hope I'm wrong. Still not feeling this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Gun to knee you'd go 1-2? Yeah perhaps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Scott GFS is out to 15 hours. The problem is the dual short waves. Can see one and one off/on the Carolinas. It's either royally hosing the models or is the reason some are too far west. I hate this forecast for most of you because it's either going to be a couple of inches or a near blizzard. If the GFS didn't have the support largely of the Euro at this point I'd say it was feedback. It's just so hard to believe the RGEM/NAM can be this bad this close. EDIT: Plus the most reliable indicator of a storm approach is me freaking out prior to the run of the most favorable model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GFS looks a tick west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yeah perhaps. And I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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