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ORH_wxman

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00z euro mid-levels look much better than 12z from yesterday. Night and day really.

This has the look of a wall of convection backing NW towards the Cape, but I wonder how far it will go NW?

I have a feeling it creeps into BOS for a time. West of it may see virtually nothing so hopefully it can get back to your area

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Canadian regional looks west at first, but has dual low centers mucking it up.

 

As much as I want to say all out near blizzard, I don't know if anything supports that in terms of what we are seeing this morning in observation or shorter range stuff like the RAP.  It's also out of the RAP range but It just doesn't look terribly interesting even at 6-12 hours as it's unable to really get organized aloft.  EDIT:  This could also just be the lull that is pretty well forecast.  Not much is really supposed to go on for another 6+ hours down the coast.

 

GFS caves some at 12z or does it get even worse?  I'd think it backs off a little from 6z.

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As much as I want to say all out near blizzard, I don't know if anything supports that in terms of what we are seeing this morning in observation or shorter range stuff like the RAP.  It's also out of the RAP range but It just doesn't look terribly interesting even at 6-12 hours as it's unable to really get organized aloft.  EDIT:  This could also just be the lull that is pretty well forecast.  Not much is really supposed to go on for another 6+ hours down the coast.

 

GFS caves some at 12z or does it get even worse?  I'd think it backs off a little from 6z.

 

I think it backs off. JMHO. Hope I'm wrong. Still not feeling this.

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Scott GFS is out to 15 hours.  The problem is the dual short waves.  Can see one and one off/on the Carolinas.  It's either royally hosing the models or is the reason some are too far west. I hate this forecast for most of you because it's either going to be a couple of inches or a near blizzard.

 

If the GFS didn't have the support largely of the Euro at this point I'd say it was feedback.  It's just so hard to believe the RGEM/NAM can be this bad this close.

 

EDIT:  Plus the most reliable indicator of a storm approach is me freaking out prior to the run of the most favorable model

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