CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Man the GFS parks a deform band over my fanny. Believable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Nam is so useless. Morning ladies and gents, lets hope the 6z gfs and 0z euro are just the beginning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Euro made a huge leap overnight. Yep Phil. Big time move. So close now. I feel like a Tolland resident but I'm heading out to do storm prep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Really brings in a cold shot behind it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ackwaves Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I believe the 6Z NAM over the 6Z GFS from climo alone for ACK. We just don't get accumulating snows once the wind goes NW out here. 2"-4" looks good. Definitely not the 10" or so that the GFS pumps out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Rap is not impressive. Like all the other meso type models it has every cook in the kitchen. Either the gfs/euro are onto something because they're not having process issues due to all the s/w energy or the other way around. They normally are both superior to the mesos at 500mb which tend to muddy the water aloft....but would go with a gefs/euro blend ftm to be safe which yields a similar outcome before jumping with the gfs 6z. The low developing west on the gfs/euro isn't convective feedback. It develops out under the nose of the s/w now sharpening. The question is are the other models right in muddying the waters out east with a huge weak broad area of low pressure in response to multiple vorticity centers ejecting in advance or are they failing for that very reason. I'd go with even earlier development jmho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Yep Phil. Big time move. So close now. I feel like a Tolland resident but I'm heading out to do storm prep.What does that even mean? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Rap is not impressive. Like all the other meso type models it has every cook in the kitchen. Either the gfs/euro are onto something because they're not having process issues due to all the s/w energy or the other way around. They normally are both superior to the mesos at 500mb which tend to muddy the water aloft....but would go with a gefs/euro blend ftm to be safe which yields a similar outcome before jumping with the gfs 6z. The low developing west on the gfs/euro isn't convective feedback. It develops out under the nose of the s/w now sharpening. The question is are the other models right in muddying the waters out east with a huge weak broad area of low pressure in response to multiple vorticity centers ejecting in advance or are they failing for that very reason. I'd go with even earlier development jmho. There will be a broad low which is the issue. Lots of weak lows until the one off of HSE bombs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 DT has 6 inches from the river east in CT and Mass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 DT has 6 inches from the river east in CT and Mass best of luck to you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 best of luck to you.And you too!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 euro and gfs are both bringing near blizzard conditions tomorrow morning to this area. GFS continues to have ~45 to 50 knot gusts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 srefs are still basically split as of the 03z run...a bunch of good hits, others whiffing - that's the way it was yesterday too. seems about half the higher-res models are on board. others are further offshore. i think they'll converge a bit to a more western solution. BOS gets into the good stuff? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEastermass128 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 DT has 6 inches from the river east in CT and Mass Is that the updated one? I'm only seeing 6" for the Cape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is that the updated one? I'm only seeing 6" for the Cape. just my opinion, but think it'll be really tricky to get that kind of snow too far west. this is like a RT 3/93 and east special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What a strange looking radar... the thinnest, longest looking weenie band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 might need to bump those totals up near BOS. they are on the edge but could see this over-performing in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What a strange looking radar... the thinnest, longest looking weenie band That's the weenie band the RGEM showed yesterday........... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Is that the updated one? I'm only seeing 6" for the Cape.I read it wrong. He's got 3 back to the river not 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 new srefs look like they almost have .5" nearing BOS...they are >.75" out on the Outer Cape now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I read it wrong. He's got 3 back to the river not 6 And that map is just for this morning into Sun morning. But it is from yesterday anyway. I doubt I get another 3" later, but I don't hold him accountable for SNE RI to Phil to Cweat to Scooter should get the goods - 3-6" even up into Cape Ann. Downeast Maine will get croaked Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 NAM looks like **** Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropopause_Fold Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 NAM looks like **** 18z should have it figured out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 NAM looks like **** Its awful, Did not even have overnights weenie band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Would like to be in Eastport for this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I hate that the NAM misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
codfishsnowman Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 i cannot remember the last time a storm really snuck up on us...like from forecast of under an inch to being buried they still miss us with buried forecasts but i cannot remember the last time i saw a really big positive bust, maybe there will be some magic tonight and tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I hate that the NAM misses. The 9z ARW and NMM are both nice hits for SE MA CC. Both 0.5"+. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I hate that the NAM misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The 9z ARW and NMM are both nice hits for SE MA CC. Both 0.5"+. 9z snow probs looks solid as well for SE areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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