Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:22 PM, CoastalWx said: I mean this is 24 hrs out. Hard for a big bust like that,unless it goes bananas with a convective vort. Maybe the GEM and euro come NW. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:22 PM, CoastalWx said: I mean this is 24 hrs out. Hard for a big bust like that,unless it goes bananas with a convective vort. Maybe the GEM and euro come NW. I know but RGEM/NAM/UKMET want nothing to do with this GFS type solution. Some camp is busting terribly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:22 PM, CoastalWx said: I mean this is 24 hrs out. Hard for a big bust like that,unless it goes bananas with a convective vort. Maybe the GEM and euro come NW. Not for the GFS it's not. Remember how bad it was pre blizzard even 12 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:18 PM, CoastalWx said: Not funny..lol. I'm not on the desk for terminals, but this is not good. People are fooked if the GFS happens. Verbatim how bad is the GFS Scott/Phil etc? What are we looking at for winds? Trying to make the decision on a generator right now. I can't do 3 days without power again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:28 PM, Rollo Tomasi said: I know but RGEM/NAM/UKMET want nothing to do with this GFS type solution. Some camp is busting terribly. Would we consider one model a "camp" right now though? It's more like consensus vs. outlier until the Euro weighs in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 12z GGEM isn't impressive like the GFS for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:31 PM, Snow88 said: 12z GGEM isn't impressive like the GFS for this area. Yup Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GGEM wants nothing to do with this. WTF. I'm still not buying the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 GGEM is meh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 So now we have ukmet/nam/cmc all products vs euro/gfs pending euro update. This just in.........navgem a hit for eastern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:29 PM, Rollo Tomasi said: Verbatim how bad is the GFS Scott/Phil etc? What are we looking at for winds? Trying to make the decision on a generator right now. I can't do 3 days without power again. The snow looked like it would not be nearly as wet. maybe gusts to 50 or so? I mean if the other models are right, it's easy street. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zeus Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:33 PM, CoastalWx said: GGEM wants nothing to do with this. WTF. I'm still not buying the GFS. Which is probably logical until it gets any other model's support. Again, outlier in guidance. Ride the consensus unless there's something close to a realistic split in guidance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Toss the GFS folks. It's garbage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 The GFS is upset that it busted so bad on the blizzard it's now going the other way to compensate....someone should euthanize this model after today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 FWIW the RPM doesn't even have a trace for ORH or IJD lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:30 PM, Zeus said: Would we consider one model a "camp" right now though? It's more like consensus vs. outlier until the Euro weighs in. The Euro made a pretty huge leap west last night and isn't really anything like the GGEM/UKMET solutions, JMHO. Also don't forget, 3 days ago both the RGEM and GGEM were updated, which gives me pause. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:35 PM, CT Blizz said: Toss the GFS folks. It's garbage Again.llllast nights euro was similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 That said I'm not tossing but putting it under the pile for consideration later. For now considered muted outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:37 PM, weathafella said: Again.llllast nights euro was similar. It was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 I really have no idea what to think pending the 12z Euro lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:37 PM, weathafella said: Again.llllast nights euro was similar. I don't think it really was Jerry. The Euro didn't give a blizzard all the way to ORH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Snowing much harder now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:39 PM, CT Blizz said: I don't think it really was Jerry. The Euro didn't give a blizzard all the way to ORH No, but it had a good deformation area over ern areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 DT's final call shifts everything east a bit.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CTWeatherFan Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 Sorry for the IMBY question but I'm on my phone. what did the models spit out near Brewster, MA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CT Rain Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 There are like 3 or 4 SREF members that are amped up like the op GFS. Majority are much weaker and out to sea (brushing CC/ISS with the worst). Interesting storm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:37 PM, weathafella said: Again.llllast nights euro was similar. Exactly. Take a look on Wunder. The Euro/GFS at 0z were dead ringers/as close as they are going to get by 36 hours (24 hours now) at 500 and at the surface. What happened is the 12z GFS took it a step further and organized the "mess" that the other models had into a closed 500mb contour etc. It's basically just a continuation of what they were doing last night. If the Euro holds serve, toss everything else. The UKMET IMO is horrible more than half the time, and the GGEM/RGEM were both updated on 2/13. That could be part of their "issue" who knows. But by default if you want to call the GFS garbage you're calling the Euro garbage too because they're very similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:42 PM, Brian5671 said: DT's final call shifts everything east a bit.. Then I feel even better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 On 2/16/2013 at 4:18 PM, CoastalWx said: Not funny..lol. I'm not on the desk for terminals, but this is not good. People are fooked if the GFS happens.awesome days and days of delays Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Clinch Leatherwood Posted February 16, 2013 Share Posted February 16, 2013 What did the Euro Ensembles show? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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